I'm going on form in the trials. What that suggests is that Barker and Waverley are clearly the strongest sides. Barker has knocked off Joeys, who are always a prized scalp. Waverley has pretty much cruised through the trials, beating St Augustine's pretty easily, and they're usually a good benchmark. Plus Waverley was the strongest side in this age group coming through, which means less than it used to, now that so many players in many schools join in or about Year 11.
I don't think anyone would argue very hard against that proposition.
Knox are difficult to get a handle on. They went down narrowly to Joeys, which was a decent result. They accounted for Shore easily enough. On those results, I'd have them tracking below Barker and Waverley but above Trinity and Cranbrook. But then they went down to Oakhill. Now, Oakhill lost to Trinity the week before, although they should probably have won. They dominated the set pieces, were extremely committed and gutsy, yet their error rate was extraordinary. They looked to me committed, strong and limited (but that's just one game). Anyway, from a CAS perspective, I still think that form has Knox in the top three, but more vulnerable to Trinity, Cranbrook and St Aloysius than I would have expected.
Trinity and Cranbrook seem pretty evenly-matched. Trinity won their trial, but not after a scare, and Cranbrook were a touch below full strength. Trinity really got out of jail against Oakhill, and whacked St Pius. They have a dangerous backline but (on what I have seen) really need to improve their set piece if they're to make any impact. If they get a decent supply of clean ball, they have an upset in them, but that's a big if.
Cranbrook lost to Trinity and beat St Pius 36-17. I don't know what happened at Kinross Wollaroi. I'd put them around the same level as Trinity, although their trial form is not quite as good.
And then St Aloysius. Yes, I know they beat Waverley a few years back, and that was great. But I'm dealing with this year. I think Trinity, Cranbrook and St Aloysius are the bottom three on form. Of those, Trinity beat St Pius 60-17. Cranbrook beat St Pius 36-17. St Aloysius beat St Pats 11-6. Now, on that benchmark you'd say that St Aloysius is closer to St Pius' standard than the other two schools. Yes, I know it's said in these forums that St Aloysius "dominated" against St Pius, but if you "dominate" and can only score 11 points, your side has problems, no?
St Aloysius has won four from four in the trials and looks way more competitive than last year, and these are good developments. And I hope they go well this year. But they have played the weakest opponents in the trials, so there's a limit to how much you read into it.
And, as I keep saying, any odds are good odds in a two-horse race, which means that on a given day St Aloysius can cause an upset. I'd like to see that. But, on form so far, I can't split Barker and Waverley at the top, I think Knox will be third, I can't split Trinity and Cranbrook for fourth and I suspect St Aloysius are a step behind them.
Would love to be proved wrong, though.