NSW AAGPS Rugby 2013

[George Smith]

To ascertain the 'depth' of each School's rugby program, with an eye for next year, I looked at the results for their top 3 teams plus the emerging players coming through (U16s). The results are interesting.

GPS Rugby Stats - 2012

Full Table

source: GPS Schools' publicly available information

 

[George Smith]

The summary for all 6 teams ranks the schools with the greatest depth in their top and emerging teams. ie. 1sts,2nds,3rds 16A,B,Cs.

Charting the point difference really highlights the gap between Joeys & Scots to the other schools. These 2 schools will always be contenders for premierships whilst the other schools' rugby programs struggle to get traction.

But if you contend that the 3rds is full of year 12 boys and the 16B and C are not true indicators of a schools depth then the summary just for the 1s, 2s and 16As is:

These results suggests that Joeys and Scots have the overall best rugby programs any way you cut and slice the data. Newington concentrate on their 1sts and 2nds only (some may contend imports etc). Kings, Riverview and Shore show glimpses of greatness but do not have the depth to maintain winning results for every round of the comp (ie the replacements to injured players are not up to it)!

 

[rugbyscribe]

The summary for all 6 teams ranks the schools with the greatest depth in their top and emerging teams. ie. 1sts,2nds,3rds 16A,B,Cs.

But if you contend that the 3rds is full of year 12 boys and the 16B and C are not true indicators of a schools depth then the summary just for the 1s, 2s and 16As is:

These results suggests that Joeys and Scots have the overall best rugby programs any way you cut and slice the data. Newington concentrate on their 1sts and 2nds only (some may contend imports etc). Kings, Riverview and Shore show glimpses of greatness but do not have the depth to maintain winning results for every round of the comp (ie the replacements to injured players are not up to it)!

Joeys looking strong in 2013!

 

[CTPE]

The summary for all 6 teams ranks the schools with the greatest depth in their top and emerging teams. ie. 1sts,2nds,3rds 16A,B,Cs.

But if you contend that the 3rds is full of year 12 boys and the 16B and C are not true indicators of a schools depth then the summary just for the 1s, 2s and 16As is:

These results suggests that Joeys and Scots have the overall best rugby programs any way you cut and slice the data. Newington concentrate on their 1sts and 2nds only (some may contend imports etc). Kings, Riverview and Shore show glimpses of greatness but do not have the depth to maintain winning results for every round of the comp (ie the replacements to injured players are not up to it)!

Congrats GS on the great work you have done with this. I'm wondering if you can apply your stats to picking just a first XV favourite for next year rather than using them as a basis for examining school rugby programs?

There are no doubt plenty of formulas that could be applied and there is of course the old adage that stats can be manipulated to provide a desired outcome but I'll suggest this one - take 1/3 of the 2012 firsts points + 2/3 of the seconds 2012 points + 1/4 of the 16As 2012 points. The rationale for this is that:

1. The majority of boys in many schools first XVs are in year 12 - maybe 4-6 of 15 are in year 11 and will be returning next year hence take 1/3 of 2012 points
2. Conversely the majority of boys in schools 2nd XVs - say 9-11 maybe in year 11 and will be likely to play in their first XV next year thus take 2/3 of 2012 points
3. In any given year the standout players in a 16As team will go straight into the firsts in the following year - say 3-5 boys so take 1/4 of their 2012 points

This gives you a squad of around 18 boys - 5 from this years firsts, 10 from this years seconds and 3 from this years 16As. I'd be interested in yours and others thoughts on this in particular the proportions applied to each of the three teams from which the players are drawn?

Now to apply the formula:

1. Joeys - 12.5 (2.67 + 7.33 + 2.5)
2. Newington - 10.33 (4 + 5.33 + 1)
3. Kings - 9.5 (1.33 + 6.67 + 1.5)
4. Scots - 7.66 (3.33 + 1.33 + 3)
5. Shore - 5.67 (2 + 2.67 + 1)
6. Riverview - 5.25 (.67 + 3.33 + 1.25)

**Grammar/Tas/High - not rated as teams not combined

 

[Tight head Lion]

I heard that Joeys won 72% off all games played this year with 22 pennant winning teams. What is amazing is that there is no Director of Coaching or overall master plan to follow. Scots pay big $$$ for an imported Welshman who has yet to deliver a 1st, 2nd and 3rd grade premiership. The 16a's won coached by a teacher and not a hired hand. Well done Mr Torrance.

 

[Vanuatu Chiefs]

I would also like to thank George Smith for your analysis. I think the formula loadings you've applied, CTPE, are probably close to the mark and there is a big challenge ahead for those schools in the bottom half of GS' and your tables to belie those statistics in 2013.

Whilst their old boys and others lament the lack of recent premiership glory, on any measure Joeys' consistent rugby programme continues to provide the benchmark for all others to aspire to. They are clearly continuing to put in the effort in the younger age groups to impart the necessary skills to ensure their overall competitiveness.

 

[George Smith]

CTPE, your ratios prove an excellent predictive measure. But thinking of the individual talent coming through Riverview and Shore for the next 2 years I believe will cloud the predictive scores. Both these schools have an aberration of great/special talent coming through which is not reflective of either schools' rugby program (some claim are the result of the sydney club program). In fact the talent is such that Newington and Scots would have offered 'scholarships' to these 20 lads if they were not wedded as sons of OBs or committed to their school from Yr7 already.

 

[ld2b]

I heard that Joeys won 72% off all games played this year with 22 pennant winning teams. What is amazing is that there is no Director of Coaching or overall master plan to follow.

This the essence of their long term success - there is no "program". Rugby is simply part of the fabric and culture of the place. Other schools seem to have to fight to get it elevated in the overall curriculum and this is always going to be harder to sustain over the longer term.

 

[Pawl]

Potential Shore 1st XV 2013

1. Matt Towart?
2. Sam Cater
3. Doug Streeter
4. Paddy Olver
5. Jum Woodhill
6. Angus Cooke
7. Harry Hodge?
8. Nathan Lucas
9. Harry Emery
10. Jack Clancy
11. Will Connelly
12. Toby Cooke?
13. Charlie King
14. Charlie Oldham
15. Nic Clancy

Unsure about the highlighted players - open for suggestions

 

[tom morris]

are there any predictions for 2nd xv teams in 2013?

 

[HarveyColon]

already tingling with anticipation over next years 1sts backline: Tepai, Taane, kellaway, jones, deegan, lussick, tulloch, pople, throw in a clancy or 2 perhaps. this shows very good depth although there are no notable forwards returning........any sugggestions on that one

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Plenty of good forwards coming up from the U16 level (some already have a season of Opens under their belt), particularly in the 6-8 area. Some of these can double as a 4/5 although they lack the real bopper/enforcer capability. Front row should be OK with Bowditch, Fifita and Fotokava. 4/5 may be a slight weakness, but wait to see what off season enrolments occur.

 

[HarveyColon]

i think doug streeter is back for his htird year of opens, if this is true he must be alright. daniel Gorry from grammar who played 1sts in u16's this year is very tall and may play in a high gps team this year.

 

[George Smith]

Forwards to watch for 2013 GPS 1sts
Harvey & Huge you may have forgotten Joeys 1sts prop Matt Sandell in your front row. Also, Shore's Jum Woodhill (No 7 1sts) is turning into a real Richie McCaw having witnessed him pinching many good balls at the breakdown against New. Others to note include Angus Crichton (Scots 1sts No 8) who is a fantastic free running natural athlete (see Scots highlights reels). Both played NSW U15s last year. Another not readily mentioned is Sam Cater (hooker) who played NSW 15s last year and was selected over Jono Burke (Kings 1sts) for the GPS U16s Presidents XV and both he and Pritchard (see below) have been selected repeatedly over Hosea Fotokava last few years in MNZ, Sydney and NSW teams. I hear that Fotokava may play No8 for View next year with Evan Pritchard (another Sydney and NSW hooker selected over Fotokava) to play No2 for View 1sts.
Locks to look for are Nathan Lucas (Shore 2nds and ex Manly rep capt), Ben Stacy (Kings), George Lehmann (Kings) and Lachie Cannell (New), Toby Rudolph (Scots), Paddy O'Brien (Joeys 1sts).

so to create some discussion.....and get in early..

GPS 1sts XV 2013 (before GPS & Manu selection politics)
1. Matt Sandell (Joeys)
2. Sam Cater (Shore)/Jono Burke (Kings)
3. Doug Streeter (Shore)
4. Paddy O’Brien (Joeys)
5. Lachie Cannell (Newington)
6. Jum Woodhill (Shore)
7. David Morris (Newington) - captain
8. Angus Crichton (Scots)
9. Pat Curtain (Joeys)
10. Joey Lussick (New) / Jack Clancy (Shore) - both great plus Deegan (Joeys)
11. Oscar Pople (Newington); Bill Freeman / Sam Mete (View)
12. Ben Starkey (Scots)
13. Pat Curtain (Joeys)
14. Andrew Kellaway (Scots)
15. Nic Clancy (Shore)

 

[supporter]

Forwards

GPS 1sts XV 2013 (before GPS & Manu selection politics)
1. Matt Sandell (Joeys)
2. Sam Cater (Shore)
3. Doug Streeter (Shore)
4. Paddy O’Brien (Joeys)
5. Lachie Cannell (Newington)
6. Jum Woodhill (Shore)
7. David Morris (Newington) - captain
8. Angus Crichton (Scots)
9. Pat Curtain (Joeys)
10. Joey Lussick (New) / Jack Clancy (Shore) - both great plus Deegan (Joeys)
11. Oscar Pople (Newington)
12. Ben Starkey (Scots)
13. Pat Curtain (Joeys)
14. Andrew Kellaway (Scots)
15. Nic Clancy (Shore)

Oscar Pople (Newington) is in year 12 this year and I believe he will be moving on.

 

[George Smith]

Oscar Pople (Newington) is in year 12 this year and I believe he will be moving on.

then I start thinking of the View guys; Bill Freeman and Sam Mete both have been excellent over the years and played 1sts and 2nds this year respectively.

 

[CTPE]

so to create some discussion...and get in early..

GPS 1sts XV 2013 (before GPS & Manu selection politics)
1. Matt Sandell (Joeys)
2. Sam Cater (Shore)
3. Doug Streeter (Shore)
4. Paddy O’Brien (Joeys)
5. Lachie Cannell (Newington)
6. Jum Woodhill (Shore)
7. David Morris (Newington) - captain
8. Angus Crichton (Scots)
9. Pat Curtain (Joeys)
10. Joey Lussick (New) / Jack Clancy (Shore) - both great plus Deegan (Joeys)
11. Oscar Pople (Newington); Bill Freeman / Sam Mete (View)
12. Ben Starkey (Scots)
13. Pat Curtain (Joeys)
14. Andrew Kellaway (Scots)
15. Nic Clancy (Shore)

Shame on you GS.... not one King's player!! Yr 11 King's reps from 2012 returning next year are:

7. Jack McCalman - NSW Schools and Australia A
10. Corey Tulloch - NSW Schools
12. Will Davies - NSW Schools
14. Harry Jones (?) - NSW Schools and Australian Schoolboys

In addition to this are:

1. Lucas Bateman - JGS
4/5. Ben Stacy - JGS
9. Rory Davis - NGS

 

[George Smith]

Wow what an oversight! Harry Jones is a blatant omission for No.11 as is Jack McCalman for No.6, my apologies. But any which way you look at it there isn't enough room for all the great players in 2013. I must say that the 2013 year is going to be VERY strong.

Take the No.10 position for example; candidates are
- Joey Lussick (Newington), GPS 3rds res, Premiership 2012, NSW Schools 2012
- Andrew Deegan (Joeys), 3 yrs in 1sts by 2013, GPS 2nds 2012, NSW Schools U16s 2011
- Jack Clancy (Shore), Sydney U16s, 2 yrs 1st XV, outplayed most by all G&G accounts
- Corey Tulloch (Kings), NSW Schools 2012, GPS 3rds

You could put in any of CTPEs Kings players and not lose any firepower in the team. In fact what may determine the final team will be player fitness (injuries).

One thing for sure is that the selectors will not be able to use current form as the GPS season will not have commenced in time! On another note I have often wondered whether the GPS selectors review their first draft to check that all the 'major' rugby schools are represented??

 

[Hugh Jarse]

George,
For another thread, but not only will GPS 13 be a very strong year, but so will NSW I and NSW II when you add in the ISA, CAS, CHS and CCC boys. There will be fierce compatition for places.

 

[George Smith]

That is for sure. I was thinking how many boys are taking pathways next year so they can qualify for the Aust Schools UK Tour?