NRC Crowd Watch

[Wilson]

It doesn't really matter what history the VFL has behind it or how passionate AFL fans in Melbourne are, the crowd numbers the VFL is posting are entirely achievable for the big games in the NRC, in the medium to long term.

The Reds have the highest average attendance of the super rugby sides and one of the highest of all domestic sides. Crowd averages over the past 5 years have been:

• 2010: 22,827 19th overall (Waratahs were higher at 24,204 in 16th)
• 2011: 29,924 13th overall
• 2012: 34,218 7th overall
• 2013: 31,848 10th overall
• 2014: 28,500 13th overall

If half of the average crowd were to turn up to a City v Country clash or a final that's ~15,000, well within the neighbourhood of the VFL's usual peaks. No one is saying that will or has to happen this year, but 5 years down the track it should be in their sights.

 

[I like to watch]

I hope you are right,however I think the success of the comp will more likely be judged by TV viewer numbers in the long term.
TV contracts seem to be the engine that drives most sports these days.

 

[Train Without a Station]

Oh I agree. For commercial success and sustainability that is the most important aspect.

 

[dontknowmuch]

since this is a Rugby forum we can assume that there are only Rugby lovers on here and even they are disputing the statistics and facts, sadly unlike New Zealand we have a whole lot of people who have no interest in Rugby and no desire to change that.
The game is interesting at NRC level but there is no loyalty, its like watching the Springboks v All Blacks its interesting but no passion is involved (we dont want either team to win).
Try telling a league fan or AFL fan that an NRC game is worth watching, and even if they wanted to its not televised or commented on in the press (r is it), I think there were 3 lines in the Manly Daily about the upcoming Rays game.
I know Ill be flamed for the herecy and my name is a hint of my overall grip on the greater picture with rugby so its just an observation

 

[dontknowmuch]

Slow typer so missed the last posts, Fox may have an agenda not to put NRC up against any of the big ticket ball games

 

[Quick Hands]

Yes, but it is in direct competition with the AFL.

The NRC is not in competition with Club Rugby or Super Rugby.

I'm not sure that it's in competition with the AFL - isn't it complementary? My understanding is that it functions bascially as a reserve grade competition for Melbourne based AFL teams in the same way that the NSW Cup and Qld Cup do for NRL teams.

Where you logic falls down is that Aussie Rules in Melbourne occupies a position of sporting primacy which has no equivalent in Sydney, Brisbane, Canberra. People stand around in pubs in Melbourne and watch the draft in the middle of summer. If rugby is expecting this sort of fanaticism will develop then we are kidding ourselves - and that is the sort of fanaticism that is needed to get big crowds to NRC matches.

If we are going to compare ourselves with other football codes then the NSW Cup and the Qld Cup league competitions are the closest that we will get. I don't think that we are that far behind either of those at the moment, whichis pretty good for the first year. The aim should be to get 5,000 to every game within 3 years - this is achieveable and it's important for aims to be achieveable otherwise failure is too easy to explain away. The only way for regular crowds to be bigger than this is for there to be more money available for the NRC.

 

[Quick Hands]

If the NRC, a national competition which does not compete with any other professional rugby union cannot compete for crowds with a one state, reserve grade competition made up only of players who cannot make AFL, once it is well established then it is struggling.

I don't think that different competitions from the same codes are really "in competition with each other". Often the elite professional competition is played at different times allowing the committed to go to both. The lower levels also generate community interest and support for the elite.

Most NRC games haven't been played at the same time as any other rugby competitions.

I'd be interested to have a comparison of the salaries and turnover of VFL clubs as compared to NRC clubs. I suspect that they would have a far bigger budget.

 

[Wilson]

If we are going to compare ourselves with other football codes then the NSW Cup and the Qld Cup league competitions are the closest that we will get. I don't think that we are that far behind either of those at the moment, whichis pretty good for the first year. The aim should be to get 5,000 to every game within 3 years - this is achieveable and it's important for aims to be achieveable otherwise failure is too easy to explain away. The only way for regular crowds to be bigger than this is for there to be more money available for the NRC.

The argument was more that vfl's top level crowds are achievable, and if 5000 to every game in 3 years is an achievable goal I don't see why 15000 to a final or major rivalry game is any less achievable over a similar time frame.

 

[Train Without a Station]

For fans they are in competition with each other. Every fan that goes to a VFL game on Saturday afternoon is one that cannot go to the AFL game at the same time.

That means that the only people that go to VFL games are those that don't want to go to an AFL game.

Rugby's support is not diluted at all by the NRC. Every fan that goes to a Super rugby game can go see an NRC game with no conflict.

There is an average of 46 players on an AFL team list. That means there is approximately 460 contracted players in Victoria. 230 of those players will be in the AFL teams (22+ 1 Emergency). In addition 7.5 per team are injured so that leaves 155 AFL contracted players which will play in the VFL every weekend. there's 15 teams so that is about 10 AFL listed players who will play VFL every weekend.

There's 175 Super Rugby Contracted players. 30 will be in the Wallaby squad leaving 145. Super Rugby teams had an average of 4 injured players so let's take out another 20 leaving 125. That 125 spread across 9 teams is about 14 per team.

In an ideal injury scenario VFL teams field approximately 55% AFL listed players in their starting line up and NRC teams field 93% of theirs. This won't happen always and injuries have been quite high this year but there is certainly that potential. In addition returning experienced players like Steve Mafi and Cam Treolar who aren't just rejected Super Rugby players much like the VFL's AFL rejects, these are coming off contracts in other professional leagues.

My point is that the VFL can only ever sell itself as a reserve grade competition, where there is far less of that stigma about the NRC as there would only be an average of 3 players per team that would return from the Wallaby squad (I've ignored squad members who have played NRC).

Now don't sit there and fucking tell me, that watching teams primarily filled with Super Rugby players is a harder sell to rugby fans when there is no other rugby on and that there is at best 1 Saturday night game on TV, than watching players not good enough to make AFL teams instead of just watching AFL teams play at the same time.

 

[Quick Hands]

The argument was more that vfl's top level crowds are achievable, and if 5000 to every game in 3 years is an achievable goal I don't see why 15000 to a final or major rivalry game is any less achievable over a similar time frame.

15,000 plus to a final is certainly achievable and in fact it would be the pass mark. I though we were talking weekly figures as opposed to finals though.

 

[Train Without a Station]

No. This evolved from my comment that the VFL Grand Final between Footscray and Box Hill (Two Melbourne teams) got 24,000 people. Then further elaborated this appeared to be an anomaly and that 11,000-14,000 had been the norm since 20111.

We then discussed that the NRC would be a failure if it wasn't able to achieve attendance like this for major finals and marquee games in about 5 years.

 

[Quick Hands]

For fans they are in competition with each other. Every fan that goes to a VFL game on Saturday afternoon is one that cannot go to the AFL game at the same time.

That means that the only people that go to VFL games are those that don't want to go to an AFL game.

Rugby's support is not diluted at all by the NRC. Every fan that goes to a Super rugby game can go see an NRC game with no conflict.

There is an average of 46 players on an AFL team list. That means there is approximately 460 contracted players in Victoria. 230 of those players will be in the AFL teams (22+ 1 Emergency). In addition 7.5 per team are injured so that leaves 155 AFL contracted players which will play in the VFL every weekend. there's 15 teams so that is about 10 AFL listed players who will play VFL every weekend.

There's 175 Super Rugby Contracted players. 30 will be in the Wallaby squad leaving 145. Super Rugby teams had an average of 4 injured players so let's take out another 20 leaving 125. That 125 spread across 9 teams is about 14 per team.

In an ideal injury scenario VFL teams field approximately 55% AFL listed players in their starting line up and NRC teams field 93% of theirs. This won't happen always and injuries have been quite high this year but there is certainly that potential. In addition returning experienced players like Steve Mafi and Cam Treolar who aren't just rejected Super Rugby players much like the VFL's AFL rejects, these are coming off contracts in other professional leagues.

My point is that the VFL can only ever sell itself as a reserve grade competition, where there is far less of that stigma about the NRC as there would only be an average of 3 players per team that would return from the Wallaby squad (I've ignored squad members who have played NRC).

Now don't sit there and fucking tell me, that watching teams primarily filled with Super Rugby players is a harder sell to rugby fans when there is no other rugby on and that there is at best 1 Saturday night game on TV, than watching players not good enough to make AFL teams instead of just watching AFL teams play at the same time.

There's no need to get abusive, when I'm trying to have a rational discussion with you.

You see while all the VFL matches are on Saturday afternoons, the vast majority of AFL matches aren't. Just like NRL there are games played Thursday nights, Friday nights, Saturday nights and Sunday afternoons and Sunday twilight. So one AFL game might clash with the whole round of VFL, but the rest of the games don't.

We'll obviously have to agree about the state based Aussie Rules competitions - I think that they have far more gravitas than you give them credit for.

I also think that it's not valid to compare rugby, which is the 4th most popular football code in the country, with Aussie Rules in Melbourne. Every single person in Melbourne identifies with Aussie Rules, it's part of the culture. Rugby has nowhere near the comunity engagement that Aussie Rules enjoys in Melbourne.

 

[Train Without a Station]

the vast majority of AFL matches aren't.

No, but there is an AFL game in Melbourne every Saturday afternoon and every evening. In order to go to a VFL game, a patron would need to make a conscious decision, not to go to an AFL game.


Both AFL stadiums are easily accessible by public transport. I can't believe that people would rather drive to Port Melbourne's ground, find a park, then go to the game and pay probably $20 when they can jump on a train and be at Etihad Stadium or the MCG and pay $20 for a GA ticket.

Further to this, all VFL games are held in the same time slot I do believe. So it's not like people can go to a couple of different games.

In to this addition there are generally 5 AFL games in Melbourne every weekend, and every Melbourne team plays in Melbourne 3/4 of all games, meaning that for only 25% of the season (significantly less if you're a Collingwood supporter - but that's a discussion for another day and another place), your AFL team you support isn't playing in Melbourne.

So unless you have no life outside footy (which whilst people love attending events - only the rusted on cheer club is really like that), there's only about 6 VFL games you will actually get to, unless you decide not to go to AFL games.

 

[Wilson]

15,000 plus to a final is certainly achievable and in fact it would be the pass mark. I though we were talking weekly figures as opposed to finals though.

There don't seem to be really available numbers for week to week vfl games. However if we can believe Wikipedia the NRC is already equal or better then the vfl in regular attendance.

Attendances are small by AFL standards, and generally less than the SANFL and WAFL, with an average of between 1,000–2,000 in attendance. Crowds for many finals matches however tend to average in the 4,000-8,000 range, with the Grand Finak typically attracting a crowd in the 12,000-15,000 mark.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victorian_Football_League#Attendance

Maybe we shouldn't compare the NRC with the vfl because it doesn't set a high enough bar.

 

[Train Without a Station]

There don't seem to be really available numbers for week to week vfl games. However if we can believe Wikipedia the NRC is already equal or better then the vfl in regular attendance.

Yeah I searched quite hard and couldn't find anything. No mention of it in match reports even.

 

[Quick Hands]

No, but there is an AFL game in Melbourne every Saturday afternoon and every evening. In order to go to a VFL game, a patron would need to make a conscious decision, not to go to an AFL game.

Not always between 2 Melbourne teams though.

Anyway, I think it's time for Rule 9.

 

[Train Without a Station]

Yeah I guess the only real of value is that every Melbourne team players 75% of their games in Melbourne.

Can't we just keep arguing this back and forth until it's an acceptable time for me to leave the office?

 

[Wilson]

Yeah I searched quite hard and couldn't find anything. No mention of it in match reports even.

Wikipedia goes on to say the vfl doesn't publish them because some of the games are played as curtain raisers.

 

[Train Without a Station]

How inconsiderate of the VFL.

 

[Quick Hands]

Yeah I guess the only real of value is that every Melbourne team players 75% of their games in Melbourne.

Can't we just keep arguing this back and forth until it's an acceptable time for me to leave the office?

I'll check back in a week to see if it's still going.