NRC 2015 - the home stretch

[TOCC]

following the City and Vikings victories, there is no real change to the predicted table.. I think the Rising will pick up 2 bonus point wins in the next 2 games against NSW Country and the Rams, which means Rising vs Stars in Rd 9 should be the decider for the last finals spot.

Key match-ups:

Rd 8.
Vikings vs City(play-off for the minor-premiership/home grand-final)

Rd 9.
Rising vs Stars(play-off for the 4th finals spot)

 

[qwerty51]

Will City put up the Shield vs Vikings or too scared?

 

[kiap]

Will City put up the Shield vs Vikings or too scared?

If I were them, I'd leave it at home—never play a challenge away!

But I think the actual rules they adopted are that after 2 home defences, every match becomes an automatic challenge; home or away.

Crap rules, but rules is rules.

Anyone confirm this?

 

[TOCC]

This has shaken things up a bit, Perth Spirit have lost to NSW Country, which means Perth are likely to miss the finals and NSW Country have shot back into contention..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Canberra Vikings and Brisbane City are locked in for finals on 24 points
Sydney Stars - 19 points with Bye and Rising to come
NSW Eagles - 13 points with Rising and Rays to come
Melbourne Rising - 12 points with Eagles and Stars to come
Perth Spirit - 11 points with Rams and Bye to come
Queensland Country - 9 points with Rays and Vikings to come
Greater Sydney Rams - 7 points with Spirit and Brisbane to come
North Harbour Rays - 6 points with both Countries to come

I can't see the last 4 making finals.

Defining Fixtures:
Round 8 - Vikings v Brisbane. Minor Premiership at stake.
Round 8 - Eagles v Rising. Both teams need a W to cement a place in the finals.
Round 9 - Eagles v Rays. An Eagles W & BP may not be enough to make finals.
Round 9 - Rising v Stars. A losing BP may be all that the Stars need whereas the Rising may need a BP and W to get into the finals ahead of the Eagles.

It is all about how the Rising perform in the next two rounds.

Predicted Table after 9 rounds:
1. Brisbane City - 38
2. UC Vikings - 34
3. Melbourne Rising - 21
4. Sydney Stars - 20

5. NSW Country Eagles - 19
6. Perth Spirit - 15
7. North Harbour Rays - 12
8. Queensland Country - 10
9. Greater Sydney Rams - 8

Anything can and does happen in Finals footy but you’d have to be tipping a Brisbane v Vikings Grand Final.

 

[Rugbynutter39]

NSW country Eagles may be ruing losing to qld country

 

[Hugh Jarse]

^^^ I think you'll find all teams apart from Vikings and City will be ruing something.

Stars ruing the loss to NSW Country.
Rams ruing all their close losses, and the lack of a reliable place kicker.
Rays ruing the player exodus and the inability to replicate their Perth performance.
Qld Country ruing all the top pro players being rostered for City.
Rising ruing their loss to the Spirit.
Spirit ruing two home losses by a total of 6 points.

Apart from the stand out performances by the Vikings and City, the competition for the minor places has been very tight and a valid argument could be sustained for any one of the other 7 teams to be in the finals.

 

[TOCC]

Its an interesting competition in that a team with win a ratio of 29% is still in finals contention with only 2 rounds left.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

With R8 in progress
Canberra Vikings and Brisbane City are locked in for finals on 24 points
Sydney Stars - 19 points with Bye and Rising to come
Melbourne Rising - 16 points with Stars to come
NSW Eagles - 14 points with Rays to come
Perth Spirit - 11 points with Rams and Bye to come
Queensland Country - 9 points with Rays and Vikings to come
Greater Sydney Rams - 7 points with Spirit and Brisbane to come
North Harbour Rays - 6 points with both Countries to come

The last 3 can not make the finals. Spirit are highly unlikely to make the finals.

Eagles could make the finals but they need to Win and Rising to lose, or if Rising beat Stars, the Stars can not get a BP and Eagles must beat Rays with a BP. They will bypass the Stars on For/Against for the 4th finals slot.

Defining Fixtures:
Round 8 - Eagles defeated by Rising. Both teams still in the running for finals. Both could make it depending on R9 results.
To come
Round 8 - Vikings v Brisbane. Minor Premiership at stake.

Round 9 - Eagles v Rays. An Eagles W & BP will be enough to make finals if Rising beat Stars with the Stars missing a losing BP.
Round 9 - Rising v Stars. A losing BP is all that the Stars need whereas the Rising just need a W to get into the finals. If Rising lose and Eagles W, then Rising are gooooone.

It is all about how the Rising, Stars and Eagles perform in their next game.

Predicted Table after 9 rounds:
1. Brisbane City - 38
2. UC Vikings - 34
3. Melbourne Rising - 20
4. Sydney Stars - 20

5. NSW Country Eagles - 19
6. Perth Spirit - 15
7. North Harbour Rays - 12
8. Queensland Country - 10
9. Greater Sydney Rams - 8

 

[Brumby Runner]

Thanks for the running commentary HJ. From my parochial pov, I think it will finish,

Vikings. 38
Brisbane. 35
Rising. 21
Stars. 19

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Can't see anyone challenging Vikings or Brisbane for grand final place as Rising been off the boil over latter half of season and Stars equally and dramatically so....why are players like Dennis not playing for Stars???

 

[Forcefield]

I wonder how often those hail mary probabilities pay off?

The Spirit need the Eagles to lose all remaining games and the Rising to lose with no BPs and to pick up 5 points v the Rams. I think if the Rising and Spirit are tied, head v head applies first.

It's a shame it has come to this. I am all for local player development, but not at the cost of finals and not with a pre-planned game selection. Where is the motivation to play/train harder for selection?

 

[Rugbynutter39]

All a bit lottery like for player selection week to week for many teams....not sure I find that very appealing to gain a folllowing for a team....

I find this aspect far too loose...giving the impression/perception NRC competition not taken seriously

 

[Hugh Jarse]

With R8 done and dusted
Canberra Vikings and Brisbane City have locked in Home Semi Finals, & Brisbane will take bragging rights as the Minor Premiership
Sydney Stars - 19 points with Rising to come
Melbourne Rising - 16 points with Stars to come
NSW Eagles - 14 points with Rays to come
Perth Spirit - 16 points & holding their breath that Rising lose v Stars without a BP, and Eagles lose against the Rays.
North Harbour Rays - 11 points with NSW Countries to come. They could make the finals if they beat the Eagles by 44 points and Rising lose against the Stars without a BP.
Queensland Country - 9 points with Vikings to come .... Goooooone
Greater Sydney Rams - 7 points with Brisbane to come .... Goooooone. Hello Wooden Spoon

Eagles could make the finals but they need to Win and Rising to lose, or if Rising beat Stars, the Stars can not get a BP and Eagles must beat Rays with a BP. They will bypass the Stars on For/Against for the 4th finals slot.

Defining Fixtures:
Round 9 - Eagles v Rays. An Eagles W & BP will be enough to make finals if Rising beat Stars with the Stars missing a losing BP. Rays win by 44 points, and Rising lose without a BP and they sneak into 4th slot.
Round 9 - Rising v Stars. A losing BP is all that the Stars need whereas the Rising just need a W to get into the finals. If Rising lose and Eagles W, or Rays win by 44 points, then Rising are gooooone.

It is all about how the Rising, Stars, Eagles and Rays perform in their next game.

Predicted Table after 9 rounds:
1. Brisbane City - 38
2. UC Vikings - 35
3. Melbourne Rising - 20
4. Sydney Stars - 20

5. NSW Country Eagles - 19
6. Perth Spirit - 16
7. North Harbour Rays - 11
8. Queensland Country - 9
9. Greater Sydney Rams - 7

 

[Brumby Runner]

HJ I bow to your superior forecasting. Bring on the final which by rights should be a rematch in Brisvegas.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Here is the view of finals permutations from the NRC Central, laid out far more eloquently than my ramblings above but saying the same thing:

Sydney Stars (Current Position: 3rd)
Scenario One: Win versus the Melbourne Rising and the Stars qualify in third spot
Scenario Two: If the Stars lose to the Rising, they need at least a bonus point and require NSW Country Eagles to be denied a bonus point win against North Harbour Rays

Perth Spirit (Current Position: 4th)
Scenario One: The Spirit need Sydney Stars to beat Melbourne Rising and for the Stars denying them a losing point. The Spirit also need the North Harbour Rays to beat NSW Country Eagles - but not by more than 44 points
Note: The Spirit has no game in Round Nine

Melbourne Rising (Current Position: 5th)
Scenario One: A Rising win over the Sydney Stars will guarantee a finals spot
Scenario Two: If the Melbourne Rising lose to the Sydney Stars, they need a bonus point and will require the North Harbour Rays to beat NSW Country Eagles

NSW Country Eagles (Current Position: 6th)
Scenario One: NSW Country Eagles qualify if they beat the North Harbour Rays with a bonus point and the Stars lose to Melbourne Rising without earning a bonus point
Scenario Two: If the Sydney Stars beat the Melbourne Rising then any win for the NSW Country Eagles over the North Harbour Rays will see them qualify

North Harbour Rays (Current Position: 7th)
Scenario One: Need to win with a bonus point and a minimum 44-point margin over NSW Country Eagles and hope Sydney Stars beat Melbourne Rising and deny them a losing bonus point

http://www.buildcorpnrc.com.au/Arti...10/The-Race-for-the-Buildcorp-NRC-Finals.aspx

 

[Hugh Jarse]

The Battle for the 2015 Wooden Spoon

Greater Sydney Rams (Currently in Pole Position)
This is all about avoiding the 2015 Wooden Spoon.
Win: The 2015 Wooden Spoon goes North if the Vikings beat Queensland Country. If QCountry win as well, then Rams could win both the Horan Little Shield and The Unwanted Premiership, if the Rays win or get a BP and Rams don't get a winning BP. Fancy that.
Draw: The Vikings defeating Queensland Country by more than 8 points will see the Wooden Spoon travel North( ie no losing BOP for Q Country), otherwise it's Hello Wooden Spoon.
Lose: Clear the Trophy Cabinet, because it's Hello Wooden Spoon.

Predicted outcome: WINNER

Queensland Country (currently 2nd on the Grid)
Win: If the Vikings lose to Country, then QCountry are out of the running.
Draw: Country move to 11 points equal with Rays, and Rams if they latter manage to defeat Brisbane City without a BP, and Rays lose against the Eagles by more than 8. In this highly unlikely scenario, it will be a scrap over F & A, and Country are not looking good as they will stay on -72.
Lose: It's Hello my little Friend if Rams defeat BCity. If Rams draw with BCity, then QCountry must get a losing BP in round 9 to avoid the Wrong Premiership.

Predicted outcome: Runner Up

North Harbour Rays (currently on the second row of the Grid in the inside position)
Win: No chance of securing the Wrong Premiership if the Rays defeat the Eagles.
Draw: No chance of securing the Wrong Premiership if the Rays draw with the Eagles.
Lose: The Trophy is for the Rays if Rays lose by more than 8 AND Rams defeat BCity with a Bonus Point or a margin of around 30, AND QCountry defeat Vikings. If QCountry draw with Vikings, then Rays must lose by >34 points AND Rams must defeat BCity with a BP or by about 30 points.

Predicted outcome: Mathematically possible, but it's a John McEnroe - "You gotta be kidding". The other two will be too fast off the grid when the flag drops for round 9 for the Rays to catch and pass them in the battle for the Unwanted Premiership Trophy.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

View attachment 7050
The Battle for the 2015 Wooden Spoon Update

Greater Sydney Rams (Currently in Pole Position)
This is all about avoiding the 2015 Wooden Spoon.
Win: The 2015 Wooden Spoon goes North. The Rams now can NOT win both the Horan Little Shield and The Unwanted Premiership.
Draw: The Wooden Spoon travels North on F/A difference.
Lose: Clear the Trophy Cabinet, because it's Hello Wooden Spoon.

Predicted outcome: WINNER

Queensland Country (currently 2nd on the Grid with all games played)
It's Hello my little Friend if Rams defeat or draw with BCity.
If Rams lose to BCity, then QCountry miss out on The Wrong Premiership.

Predicted outcome: Runner Up

North Harbour Rays (currently on the second row of the Grid in the inside position)
Withdrawn from the contest

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Here is the view of finals permutations from the NRC Central, laid out far more eloquently than my ramblings above but saying the same thing:

NSW Country Eagles (Current Position: 3rd)
Scenario One: Having secured a BP win over the Rays, NSW Country Eagles qualify if the Stars lose to Melbourne Rising without earning a bonus point.
Scenario Two: If the Sydney Stars beat the Melbourne Rising then the NSW Country Eagles will qualify in fourth position.

Sydney Stars (Current Position: 4th)
Scenario One: Win versus the Melbourne Rising and the Stars qualify in third spot
Scenario Two: If the Stars lose to the Rising, they need at least a bonus point and require NSW Country Eagles to be denied a bonus point win against North Harbour Rays


Perth Spirit (Current Position: 5th)
Scenario One: The Spirit need Sydney Stars to beat Melbourne Rising and for the Stars denying them a losing point. The Spirit also need the North Harbour Rays to beat NSW Country Eagles - but not by more than 44 points
Note: The Spirit has no game in Round Nine and are Gooooooone

Melbourne Rising (Current Position: 6th)
Scenario One: A Rising win over the Sydney Stars will guarantee a finals spot
Scenario Two: If the Melbourne Rising lose to the Sydney Stars, they need a bonus point and will require the North Harbour Rays to beat NSW Country Eagles



North Harbour Rays (Current Position: 7th)
Scenario One: Need to win with a bonus point and a minimum 44-point margin over NSW Country Eagles and hope Sydney Stars beat Melbourne Rising and deny them a losing bonus point Rays are Gooooooone

 

[Hugh Jarse]

As predicted:

The 2015 NRC Wooden Spoon goes to:

Greater Sydney Rams