New Zealand v Wallabies, Eden Park, Sat 22nd October
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Wilson
Phil Kearns (64)
I'm a strong believer in the early drop goal, it gets in the mind of defenders and can open holes later on, particularly around the ruck, where the nz defence has been at its weakest.
The_Brown_Hornet
John Eales (66)
I think we're a better team than we were at the beginning of the season. For me the nadir was actually the Melbourne test against England. Jeez we were poor and bereft of ideas. Since then I feel the improvements have been slow and steady. The EOYT will give us a better idea of where we are at.
BH is right, we hit form, with everyone fit and firing at precisely the right time last year. Unfortunately that all unraveled this year but with the new blood coming into the squad I link the look of where we are heading. I'd be astonished if it was enough this weekend though, but here's hoping.
BH is right, we hit form, with everyone fit and firing at precisely the right time last year. Unfortunately that all unraveled this year but with the new blood coming into the squad I link the look of where we are heading. I'd be astonished if it was enough this weekend though, but here's hoping.
Scoey
Tony Shaw (54)
Good reply and if I had the answers then I'd probably have a decent shot at getting the Wallabies coaching gig next time it rolls around. Sadly though I don't have the answers.
I think individually, our best 23 are capable of playing footy at the same level as the AB's best 23. 'Individually' and 'capable' are the key words. It's when you look at them as a team that the gap widens and deservedly so; it's a team sport after all. So why doesn't the sum of the parts not equal the whole? All those glorious intangible things that make Rugby a wonderful sport also form part of the equation. Confidence, belief, attitude, mental toughness, response to pressure etc. The AB's tick pretty much all of these boxes against all opposition. We tick pretty much all of them against most opposition, but in a Bledisloe Cup match at Eden park, they have proven to be un-ticked pretty quickly for some reason.
If Chieka et al. and the squad of players can get themselves up for this, and I mean really get themselves up for it and figure out how to unlock a few of those check boxes then all of a sudden its a far more level playing field. I'm not saying they will and I'm not suggesting its easy but I am saying that this match, at this point in time is still very much a two horse race.
Rugby is a funny game. Stranger things than us winning this one happen.
TLDR: It's the vibe.
No4918
John Hipwell (52)
In more interesting news than the majority of this thread I just made the effort to find out what TLDR means. Thanks for the inspiration to get that done Scoey.
RedsHappy
Tony Shaw (54)
I agree S2050. In essence the NZRU has evolved an incredibly potent and impressive elite rugby development and performance system that continues to invest in relentlessly effective rugby R&D programs, and we in Australia have not, it's that simple really. They're ever-improving, we are ever standing more or less still. (In fact is Chek's Wallaby 2 year % w-l ratio worse than Deans' 2008-09 Wallaby record or Deans' whole Wallaby record?)
The right intra-2016 Wallaby comparative analysis is clearly vs the better coached/better playing teams of 2016 and that's England and the ABs.
How we play at Eden Park compared to, say, the 'average' standard of our play over the 3 England Tests and ditto the previous 2 AB Tests will tell us quite reliably how well the Wallaby coaching team has designed and improved the team (and themselves) this year.
There's no convenient hiding places for coaching or player excuses vs the current ABs and there were none with England's 2016 version.
What should the comparative KPIs be, some objective, some subjective?
- as you say, points differential for sure
- tries differential
- overall quality of the Wallaby kicking game from hand, from place
- general coherence and tactical success of attack patterns
- work rate of the tight five
- breakdown accuracy and effectiveness
- line breaks and effective offloads
- support play, rapidity and quality of support to line breaks
- penalty count and YC count
- line out performance
- general consistency over 80m, good or bad level of 'inexplicable drop offs in intensity of play'
- defence of course
There will for sure be plenty of moments of truth at Eden Park. Let's hope for some good ones.
Simon.
Bob Loudon (25)
I agree too. The only area I would like to say we have really improved since the England series is that we have learned how to unlock Kerevi, and I think the dual playmakers with Cooper at 10 is a large part of that.
One other area that is partially improved is that after playing mindlessly consistent one-out running rugby regardless of conditions or tactical situation against England, we are now starting to mix it up with inside balls, kicks etc. Unfortunately that is still a work in progress, which might be good enough to break the line of the current Boks and the Pumas, but the ABs are unlikely to be seriously threatened by it.
My comparative KPIs for improvement will be:
- ABs need to score no more than 4 tries
- Wallabies need to score at least 2 tries
- Lineout success >80% with at least one steal
- No YCs
- Wallabies to lose by 10-20 (last I looked the betting line was 21)
Other more general KPIs are scrum success, tackling success, TOW, linebreaks and offloads, penalties, lack of pointless niggle, and finally, timely substitutions (which I believe Cheika will fail - tipping Phipps and possibly Moore to still be on the field at 70 minutes).
I don't think anybody really expects us to win against this ABs team at Eden Park. But we don't need to win, we just need to show up and make them work hard for it, which is something no team has done this year except the Pumas once for 50 minutes.
One other area that is partially improved is that after playing mindlessly consistent one-out running rugby regardless of conditions or tactical situation against England, we are now starting to mix it up with inside balls, kicks etc. Unfortunately that is still a work in progress, which might be good enough to break the line of the current Boks and the Pumas, but the ABs are unlikely to be seriously threatened by it.
My comparative KPIs for improvement will be:
- ABs need to score no more than 4 tries
- Wallabies need to score at least 2 tries
- Lineout success >80% with at least one steal
- No YCs
- Wallabies to lose by 10-20 (last I looked the betting line was 21)
Other more general KPIs are scrum success, tackling success, TOW, linebreaks and offloads, penalties, lack of pointless niggle, and finally, timely substitutions (which I believe Cheika will fail - tipping Phipps and possibly Moore to still be on the field at 70 minutes).
I don't think anybody really expects us to win against this ABs team at Eden Park. But we don't need to win, we just need to show up and make them work hard for it, which is something no team has done this year except the Pumas once for 50 minutes.
Scrubber2050
Mark Ella (57)
RedsHappy
Great post.
You have articulated the points very well, much betterer than I
emuarse
Chilla Wilson (44)
The_Brown_Hornet
John Eales (66)
Hugh Jarse
Rocky Elsom (76)
Not many gave us much hope in 1978 but look what happened.
Get behind our Men in Gold as @Joe Blow has.
I'm throwing my support behind the Men in Gold. Stuff Eden Park Hoodoos. Hoodoos, like records, are made to broken.
Too many miserable buggers, like Hanrahan, on here.
The torpedo
Peter Fenwicke (45)
So TL;DR have Quade & Boomstick think they are Jannie de Beer?
Brumby Runner
Jason Little (69)
Ah, but we'll all be rooned if this here (losing or is it winning?) drought don't break.
The_Brown_Hornet
John Eales (66)
Pocock got through training yesterday and is available for selection.
Will be interesting to see if Cheika puts him back in at number 8 or selects him on the bench.
My guess is the rest of the team will remain very similar to the one that played Argentina except I'd guess Slipper will return to the bench.
Will be interesting to see if Cheika puts him back in at number 8 or selects him on the bench.
My guess is the rest of the team will remain very similar to the one that played Argentina except I'd guess Slipper will return to the bench.
Viking
Mark Ella (57)
Twoilms
Trevor Allan (34)
That'd be such a kick in the dick to either Hooper who has been among the best 3 throughout the year or Timani who put in a great defensive effort last game. To throw in a just recovered and out of form Pocock, possibly out of position would be such a shitty move.
KOB1987
John Eales (66)
I doubt that dropping our most consistent performer will be a consideration. Pocock will either return to 8 or be used for impact.
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