If it was a horse race I'd want both horses swabbed.
Moana Pacifica playing reasonably well up to now, their first "home" game in Samoa for two years, you'd expect every player to be playing out of their skins, like the Drua do in Fiji. Hot and humid weather.
The Reds playing absolute rubbish all year, tight five are second grade hospital cup, lots of their best players are injured, their 10 is awful, they are playing away.
Reds 40. Moana 28. Picking outcomes based on form is not an easy project.