Look at the opposition wingers likely to come up agains the Wallabies in a quarter/semi or WC final - Tommy Bowe from Ireland, Chris Ashton/Mark Cueto/Bannahan from England, Rene Ranger/Sivivatu/Rococoko/Dagg etc from NZ.
So what kinds of winger will excel against these strong runners? And what type of winger will excel in an attacking backline with Beale/Genia/Cooper etc.
In Attack - we need someone who will run inside balls off Cooper. With plenty of width to our backline we need wingers with pace to finish, get on the outside, take the corner and most importantly find the line.
In defence - We need genuine strong tacklers. Ranger and co are not easy to pull down.
Now JOC (James O'Connor) will be one winger... and this is because I doubt Deans will experiment too much in a WC year and it's a big ask to have half a dozen Super 15 games and then a few lead up tests at 12 and then go into a WC and come up against world class centres. JOC (James O'Connor) is a future 12 but I don't think it will be this year.
Digby meets a lot of this criteria above but he is prone to errors and sometimes when he makes one or two early, his confidence get's knocked and he can become a weak line.
The candidates -
Turner - fast. Can tackle. But can fall off also. (Mind you Mitchell did this a lot early last year but turned it around). Can kick and pass... is enthusiastic and aggressive but... I'm just not sure he's 'world class'.
Shephard - Would bring size and better hands than Digby. Would definetly punch holes into the defence off Cooper and this might be useful if we go with a 'small' 12 like Barnes or Gits. Sheps can cover fullback and nowadays the back 3 are a back 3 and interchangeable. He's got a big boot and can goal kick also (but so can most of the Aus backline to varying degrees). He tackles well and as for his pace? Well maybe when he joins the Wallaby camp they can do a 6 week speed training program to get a bit more out of him before the WC.
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) - Yes he's the form 13 'from last year' not this year remember. Yes he's world class, solid and strong. But we could also say that about him at 12/13 and 15.
Personally if Horne and Mortlock are fit and raring to go I see it likely that Mortlock may get a shot at 12 so that Cooper has a big babysitter. And then it comes down to Horne and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) at 13... with potentially AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) moving to wing to cover Mitchell's loss. But I also see Gits getting a big chance to reclaim 12 also and perhaps with Morty at 13 or Horne at 13.
Cummins - I really doubt Deans will bring someone along in a WC year from outside the top 25 to starting WC winger in between now and September. He might make the squad now but no, he's a not a WC winger yet.
So who could bring the pace? Davies. Morahan. Vuna. Luke Rooney?
And which of these can defend? Davies goes hard. Morahan. Vuna and Rooney need to change opinions on this area of their game pretty quickly.
Is Davies up to the pressure and does he have the rugby nous to not get caught out in a WC?
Is it expecting too much of Morahan to be lining up in a WC within the next 6 months?
And that's why I think Deans will stick with those who've been in the mix for the last 2 years and not 'bring anyone' in from outside or give someone a rapid rise to WC stardom or 'infamy'.
Davies/Cummins etc might make the trip to NZ but the top team will be a combination of these boys and that's it.
Genia
Cooper
12. Gits/Mortlock/Barnes
13. Horne/AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)/Mortlock
11. JOC (James O'Connor)
14. Digby/AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)/Shepherd
15. Beale