Leon McDonald's view
Sentimentality is for the clubhouse
Don’t worry, we can see the Irish eyes from here and we know they are not smiling. Nor is the England Chariot sweet or the Flower of Scotland in bloom. In Wales it’s a different story, because let’s face it, an under-pressure coach has done what every under-pressure coach in rugby history has done: he’s picked what he knows, and what he knows is Welsh rugby.
It may seem like a bombshell – and for every reason other than form, I guess it is – but the axing of Brian O’Driscoll is no real surprise unless you think test series are won on fairy tales. They are not, they are won on ability, they are won on moments and they are won on match ups. People may well be asking themselves, “Surely you would play O’Driscoll in the decider?” My answer to that is, last week was a decider too, and O’Driscoll had his moment in Melbourne.
As a player, I hated the notion of being dropped. I never had to feel the pain of a coach taking from me my chance to end a career. Injury was the thief in the night time as far as my playing days were concerned. But this is the reality – selections make or break coaches, and Gatland, public relations nightmare aside, knows his best chance of success is with the players with which he’s enjoyed the most success. Every coach does it, why should he be different? And, to be frank, if Jamie Roberts had been fit for the first two tests, would O’Driscoll have made those starting fifteens? I am almost certain he would not have.
Sentimentality is for the clubhouse, not the rugby field, and O’Driscoll, while I feel for the player and the person, has to understand that you only get so many shots at glory. Last week was his best yet, and he failed to make it count.
Putting the obvious fan shock and horror of this selection to one side, let’s think about what it means for the game plan. For starters, Gatland needs punch and the best place to get that punch is at inside centre. Davies is deception, and deception is a tool best used at outside centre. Best practice teams (think All Blacks, think Chiefs, think, dare I say it, Wales) know you need a powerhouse outside the fly-half to ensure gainline percentage (GLP). This can come from solid forward runners operating off the half-back or fly-half, but if you want some width, it’s best to have bulk permanently stationed outside the ten. Roberts is that bulk. His job should be to turn Lealiifano into a judder bar with every touch of the ball, thus creating delays in the Wallabies defensive set-up by weakening the midfield trust. Gaps will then come out wide.
With respect to Jamie Roberts (and all other great inside centres), he is the brawn and Davies is the brains. Although I’m sure being Welsh, they’re both partial to a pint of the latter. GLP is one of the key statistics in a game – an indicator of how effective your running attack is – and the Lions, notwithstanding their possession deficit in test two, simply must do better than their 75% effort in Melbourne. (Australia’s GLP was 84.) Roberts can make that happen.
Much has been made of the Lions’ kick tactics last weekend too. Did they kick too much? Well, the Wallabies actually kicked more. But as much as it is cliché, a kick is only as good as its chase and the Wallabies regained almost 20% of their in-play kicks. The lesson is obvious and the fix is easy. Accuracy and follow up.
And while we’re on kicks, here’s the age-old quandary: Do you take the three points or do you keep the screws on and try for seven? My personal feeling is that you cannot afford to button off. Yes, scoreboard pressure – the ability to keep the score ticking over – is very real, and it was a hallmark of our game at the Crusaders. However, when you have a team on the ropes, you don’t back off. With ten minutes to go, Horwill decided on the scrum instead of the points. Warburton had an earlier opportunity to destroy the Wallabies at scrum time and instead he settled for a penalty. That’s a moral victory for the Wallabies pack.
So how does this go?
With the return of Corbisiero to the front row and the addition of O’Brien and Faletau to the loose forwards, Gatland has picked a pack to play to northern hemisphere strengths: scrummage the Wallabies into submission, carry the ball with intent, take the moneyball option at lineout time. In the backline, he has (finally) a destructive inside centre to take the heat off Sexton and bend the Wallaby line. Davies’ return to outside centre, operating with two of his Welsh back three behind him, is the finishing touch on a backline that simply must fire.
No, this is not a team for the sentimentalists, but take heart from the fact it is one for the rationalists.
