Lies, Damn Lies and Centre...

[Athilnaur]

Statisics!

I posted in the Super XV post, querying how Giteau was ranked so highly in Fox Fantasy Points, vs SBW, Nonu weren't.

To my mind the inside/outside centre roles will prove critical in the coming 3N and RWC for the Wallabies. Well I played some more with the stats, only to be a little surprised with the results.

The current weightings are essentially 50/50 offense/defense, some might place more on offense. However, when I varied them the results were surprisingly robust.

Final Fantasy Stats - Centres as @ Rnd 19 (Weighted, Ranked)

Ver Two - Penetrative-Offense Centre

I should add that the FF (Folau Fainga'a) stats are pretty limiting, and that I have only included the stats I considered Centre related. I discarded a small number (such as linoeouts won, red/yellow cards) where the data was very low and I queried their relevance or influence.

Thoughts?

 

[barbarian]

Great stuff, love that type of statistical analysis. Saffy isn't a centre, though, he is a breakaway. I would also take out Horne given he played so few minutes.

Also the end percentage figure you come to in 'penetration' is erroneous as on any given run you can have multiple tackle busts. So the 96% figure for SBW is too high as on some runs he has broken 3 or 4 tackles which inflates the percentage.

I would also swap the weightings for tries/assists and penetration. Foxsports fantasy gives the try assist to whomever threw the last pass, not necessarily the bloke who set it up. Also in an inside back I value line-breaking and offloading more than just pure tryscoring.

It would be interesting to see the end rankings with a few different weightings- eg if you valued defence highly, or attack highly, or wanted a 'complete package'.

 

[Scarfman]

Rugby stats are useful things to get you to see things in a new light. But they're not much good for drawing conclusions. There's nothing wrong with your weightings but other people would give different emphasis to different things.

Everyone knows that SBW and Ioane are the most penetrative runners, but who knew that SB's error rate was so high, or that Digby missed so many tackles (or Horne, for that matter).

The big unknowable is how well someone like AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) would have done in a better side. If he had the Crusaders' loosies taking care of business, he might have more of those half-holes he loves to run into.

Lastly - why do I have the feeling that this will turn into our 17th Tom Carter thread? :

 

[Athilnaur]

Good point re Saffy Barbarian, my error I'd had him in there because I was interested in his tackle count - fixed. All in all for myself I am reasonably comfortable with multiple tackle breaks in a run, since that is after all the point of a penetrative player. I reckon that is a very fair point re penetration deserving more weight.

I'll do a second table for you guys with more recognition of penetration and reduce the influence of tackle counts for the TC dislikers out there, just to show some contrast.

 

[Epi]

Loving the stats also.. There are such few good sources for stats about our game. It would be a great add-on for G&GR....

 

[Athilnaur]

Lastly - why do I have the feeling that this will turn into our 17th Tom Carter thread? :

Actually, its probably a McCabe thread! I am a fan of TC and I think he will lose the turkey image he has gained and grow to be a very good centre indeed, potentially even a great one if he improves his passing, but for now mcCabe is the better pick on stats and it would seem selection.

And I agree completely about stats only helping with perspective. There are so many variables depending on the team the player was in. The FF (Folau Fainga'a) stats are also pretty limiting. Is a nice way to help retain a perspective of how players performed tho imho, especially for someone like me with limited knowledge of the game.

 

[centreman]

The stats show one thing and that is Faainga is really just a tackling machine. One try and 4 linebreaks playing outside the best half combination in the competition is not what we need at Wallaby level IMO.
It would be interesting to see the stats on some of the fringe centres such as Dellit,Tapuai and Sidey.

 

[Swarley]

Lastly - why do I have the feeling that this will turn into our 17th Tom Carter thread? :

It's inevitable, Scarfman. Everybody seems to hate Tom Carter for some strange reason. I mean, I don't like him as a player and I can truly understand why others don't, but the unrelenting detest that the overwhelming majority of G&GR fans have for him is pretty unjustified. He seems to be like an honest, hard working team-player, who's chosen to stay loyal to the Waratahs over the last few years despite a plethora of first-class centre options (Barnes, Horne, Cross and now AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)). His comments after the loss to the Blues last week helped me discover a new level of admiration for him, with his frank and succinct summary of the 'Tahs season a breath of fresh air in comparison to the monotonous cliché continuously seen throughout today's media. He's played the role that Hickey, and McKenzie before him, has wanted him to, and to a seemingly positive result. He makes a lot of pilfers, completes 93% of his tackles, has either set up or scored more tries than O'Connor, Giteau, Ashley-Cooper or Ioane and has done so without fail all season, evidenced by the fact that he's had more game time than any other Australian inside back.

I really do feel sorry for Carter. He's constantly laughed off when suggested as a possible Wallaby candidate, saying that he's too boring and doesn't provide any spark in attack, whereas some are calling for Anthony Fainga'a to be the Aus #13. All this in spite of the fact that Carter's stats in both attack and defence comprehensively overshadow Fainga'a's.

 

[Hawko]

While being wary of adding to the TC debate for fear of waking up the haters, what I did find interesting was the similarity between TC and Olivier. Olivier was the only saffer on the list and this year I felt that the SA centres were somewhat unremarkable - Ebersohn looked OK, de Jong was up and down, few really set the world on fire.The only outside back I ever picked in my Fantasy team from SA was Lambie and if he hadn't been boosted by kicking stats he wouldn't have made it either.

Olivier played a similar sort of game for his team as TC, running the ball from 12 trying to penetrate the defense. They have different styles, but Olivier was the premium centre in SA this year. TC was generally regarded as good but limited, with a range of players in front of him for a Wallaby spot. All may change when it comes to the TN but right now you would say the WB's and AB's have a real edge in penetration (though defensively JdV and Fourie are excellent).

Despite the limitations, the stats do not show Fainga'a in a very good light at all compared to the alternatives, especially McCabe.

 

[barbarian]

I don't know how well you can judge McCabe considering he played a lot of this season at fullback and wing, where both defence and attack are very different to playing at centre. Same goes for Digby and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper).

 

[Athilnaur]

It would be interesting to see the stats on some of the fringe centres such as Dellit,Tapuai and Sidey.

More Lies and Damn Lies - Saffas and Outliers (Penetrative-Offensive Weighting)

Wasn't my intention to assess SA Centres so much as put Aussie Centres in context, but IMHO they do reinforce the urgency we have for strong centres to compensate for QC (Quade Cooper).

As for Sidey, didn't see that coming.

As others have said its just stats, and you can argue them all over, but if nothing else they do give you a context for the argument.

I think Giteau is a good example. A great player, but doesn't gel with QC (Quade Cooper), and his tackle rate is suspect. Mortlock would have been my pick every time 2-3 years ago, but while his will is there as is his gift for knowing where to be when I did see him put the afterburners on vs Force he was blowing real hard afterwards.