Jonathan Kaplan retires

[Baldric]

Kiap, those are some awesome stats. Thirty years ago I did three years of stats at University, unfortunately they were all first year.

 

[PaarlBok]

Thats why Kiap never disagree with Oom PB.

 

[Ash]

All-time in Super Rugby the Waratahs are about the 4th best team, for the period to 2010 at any rate.

I find that maybe a bit of a stretch. They were consistently a mid table team until the mid - late 2000s. It's actually only from 2005 where the Tahs fairly consistently made the finals, ignoring a horror year in 2007.

The Waratahs placings from 1996:
7th, 9th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 8th, 2nd (2002), 5th, 8th, 2th (2005), 3rd, 13th, 2nd, 5th, 3rd (2010).

 

[Ash]

Note: 1996 - 2005 (inclusive) had 12 teams.

 

[p.Tah]

Can you do the racing form for tomorrow too please Kiap?

Put money on the brown horse

 

[Eyes and Ears]

From Facebook and JK himself

"And so , with the passing of time , my professional refereeing career is coming to an end on Saturday when i will have one last swing of the bat doing the Currie Cup Final between WP and the Sharks at Newlands .

What a wonderful ending , which i could not have been scripted any better ( the place i was born and the place i now call home ) . As i have stated already , i am so grateful ( to SARU ), proud and full of joy that I have been chosen to be involved on this prestigious day . I have been told that the decision was made purely on merit , but i would like to acknowledge all my colleagues in the top tier , most of whom could have done this game . I can assure you all that i am up for this game ; am looking forward to it , and will be celebrating with all of the wider rugby community when all is said and done after the final whistle .

i have had such wonderful messages of support from referees all around the world in my final year .. not le...ast from Craig Joubert and Jaco Peyper , who are SAs top performers internationally to Chris Pollock ( who is doing the final of the NZ ITM Cup ) who wrote me a special message to say how stoked he was for me to be ending my career like this " and how you had a goal and never waivered from it " .. There is indeed a special cameraderie amongst us !

This will be my 423rd first class game , my 161st Currie Cup match , my 6th Final , the 65th time I referee WP/Stormers , the 58th time I referee the Sharks and the 9th time I referee this match-up . This is a day I intend to savour !

More importantly though , this day is about the players , the coaching staff and the Currie Cup ! I hope its a good game for all rugby fans and may the best team win !"

 

[kiap]

Kiap, those are some awesome stats. Thirty years ago I did three years of stats at University, unfortunately they were all first year.

Thanks but it's not really my own work. I've followed someone else doing it for this real-world example (and for some other sports and politics queries). So I have absorbed some stats-nerdery that's probably standard stuff for actual stattos (that wouldn't have stuck with me long reading it from a book).

Thats why Kiap never disagree with Oom PB.

Never often, OomPB. Or often never.

Boet, if JK is retiring we can wish him well. I'm not a card-carrying Tahs fan, as you know ..... but I am still saying that there was a "Kaplan Effect", or to put it fairer, a significant correlation between Kaplan and the Waratahs losing games.

By the way, it's not a "smoking-gun" or a moral judgement on a referee - that's separate and happens elsewhere in referee threads and on facebook.

 

[kiap]

I find that maybe a bit of a stretch. They were consistently a mid table team until the mid - late 2000s.

It's based on Win % from 96-09 regular seasons. Double check it, but the Crusaders were on top, Brumbies and Blues next had won the same number of games with the Waratahs 4th. Here's the Top 6:

S14 Win% -P- -W-
CRU 66.0 162 107
BLU 59.9 162 97
BRU 59.9 162 97
TAH 53.7 162 87
HUR 53.1 162 86
SHA 48.8 162 79

 

[Hugh Jarse]

And how many of those games did Kaplan actually "cost" the Tahs?

BTW, Kaplan reffed the 96 - 19 mauling at the hands of the Crusaders. That one was definitely Kaplan's fault!

HSCB Waratahs ( Highest Score By Crusaders ). <cringe>

 

[Ash]

HSCB Waratahs ( Highest Score By Crusaders ). <cringe>

The Australian rugby teams have a few of those unfortunate records

 

[Ash]

It's based on Win % from 96-09 regular seasons. Double check it, but the Crusaders were on top, Brumbies and Blues next had won the same number of games with the Waratahs 4th. Here's the Top 6:

S14 Win% -P- -W-
CRU 66.0 162 107
BLU 59.9 162 97
BRU 59.9 162 97
TAH 53.7 162 87
HUR 53.1 162 86
SHA 48.8 162 79

I'd argue that just win/loss stats by themselves is not the best way to judge. A team that consistently came 5th, for example, could end up higher than teams who won the comp multiple times.

The Tahs were very consistent in what they achieved during that period, unfortunately up until about 2005 they mainly achieved mid-table finishes with only a couple of outliers. From 2005 to 2010 the Tahs were definitely a top 4 team.

They are ahead of teams like the Stormers because the Stormers had three or so absolutely shocking years.

Same with the Bulls who were the easy beats for a couple of years, but then the Bulls won the comp three times up to 2010 inclusive.

The Tahs, in contrast, made two finals.

 

[Richo]

I'd argue that just win/loss stats by themselves is not the best way to judge. A team that consistently came 5th, for example, could end up higher than teams who won the comp multiple times.

The Tahs were very consistent in what they achieved during that period, unfortunately up until about 2005 they mainly achieved mid-table finishes with only a couple of outliers. From 2005 to 2010 the Tahs were definitely a top 4 team.

They are ahead of teams like the Stormers because the Stormers had three or so absolutely shocking years.

Same with the Bulls who were the easy beats for a couple of years, but then the Bulls won the comp three times up to 2010 inclusive.

The Tahs, in contrast, made two finals.

Since Kiap was comparing win percentages under Kaplan, win percentages overall are the most sensible comparison point. He's not suggesting the Waratahs are the fourth most successful franchise.

 

[kiap]

I'd argue that just win/loss stats by themselves is not the best way to judge.

The win/loss stats are the best measurement in this context.

It is the best data to test for a referee effect on the win/loss results for a team.

BTW, Kaplan reffed the 96 - 19 mauling at the hands of the Crusaders. That one was definitely Kaplan's fault!

Of course there were matches the Waratahs were odds-on to lose. The Crusaders finished well above them in 2002 and thrashed them in that game.

I wouldn't expect the Tahs to win 93% under Kaplan - any more than they'd lose 93% under him (which is what they did)! But overall they win more than they lose in that period (96-09) with the 4th best record overall at 54% (or 53.7). But to be fair, we need to look at more than just the raw results.

All sides come up against stronger and weaker opposition over the years. To control for this, look at the games between comparable opposition teams:

i.e. restrict the sample to those matches each season between teams finishing within one win on the table for that season (see Fig. 2 on my post on the previous page).​

 

[Lindommer]

Have a giggle all you like, but the facts are the Tahs had a winning percentage of close enough to 65% ex Kaplan,and a win rate of less than 10% under Kaplan.

One thing I do as a retired ref is take a bit of cardboard and mark scrums, free kicks and penalties awarded to both sides. It's a pretty good indicator if a ref's watching one side only. And I used to ask a spectator to mark me when I was whistling and have a squiz at the figures at half time; if they were wildly out of kilter it showed I was looking at one side and not the other.

It'd be insightful to see these figures for matches involving Kaplan and the Tahs.

 

[Ruggo]

I think we have all supported teams that have had bad runs from refs (not judging who is right or wrong) but none the less in regards to Kaplan, congratulations on a good career. It is a tough job so congratulations is in order.

As frustrating as they are at times, we just don't have a game without them.

 

[It is what it is]

As frustrated as we get with refs, imagine how frustrated they must become with players.

 

[boyo]

As frustrated as we get with refs, imagine how frustrated they must become with players.

And commentators, and spectators, and journalists, etc.

 

[MajorlyRagerly]

And commentators, and spectators, and journalists, etc.

I don't think top referee's really give a shit about this bunch - at least they shouldn't. Every referee is aware of the subjectivity of the game - reading the views of a bunch of fans will just make you want to put the whistle down!

 

[Sidbarret]

One thing I do as a retired ref is take a bit of cardboard and mark scrums, free kicks and penalties awarded to both sides. It's a pretty good indicator if a ref's watching one side only. And I used to ask a spectator to mark me when I was whistling and have a squiz at the figures at half time; if they were wildly out of kilter it showed I was looking at one side and not the other.

It'd be insightful to see these figures for matches involving Kaplan and the Tahs.

I get the feeling that this approach is pretty common among ANZAC referees and I don't like it. It really uncool when you're team is the only one being watched, but often it is because they have brought the attention onto themselves by pushing edge. An indiscipline team playing a more disciplined team should be penalised more.

More to the point, the Waratahs (and after that the Reds) under McKenzie, were in my opinion indiscipline teams. Among other factors, I think this contributed to their poor record under Kaplan who wasn't the type to try and balance the ledger in the way you are advocating.

 

[PaarlBok]

Pretty sad to see Kaplan in an emosional state after NKosi before kick off. We are going to miss one of the worlds best refs.