This could be a much closer game than the bookies are suggesting. Japan aren't minnows any more, they're currently #11 in the rankings, just behind Argentina, Fiji and France, and comfortably ahead of Italy at #14 - and we know what happened vs Italy in June.
Against that we've gone from two experienced playmakers in Foley-Beale to Hodge-Kerevi with Rona the only sub on the bench. We're one injury or card away from a potential big problem.
I think Kerevi will be more effective than he has in recent tests, he hasn't reproduced his Super Rugby form at test level but his best games have been against looser defences and smaller backs similar to Super Rugby games, and I think he'll get that here. But it'll be interesting to see how much ball we see out beyond the 12 channel in attack.
At least the forwards are close to full strength. Should hopefully dominate the set piece. I'd like to think we'll still win comfortably but a line of 27.5 seems pretty generous...