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Is 2011 the Most Even and Competitive Super Rugby Season Ever?

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Ali's Choice

Jimmy Flynn (14)
Whilst I believe Super Rugby has always been a wonderful competition, it could be argued that in years gone by there has always been one or two standout teams, with the rest of the competing teams simply making up the numbers. But this season is shaping up as being the most even and most competitive season in the history of Super Rugby.

In the early years of the tournament the Auckland Blues were clearly the best team in the Super 12. Winning the first two tournaments and qualifying for the first three finals. In the late 1990s the Crusaders dominated, winning three titles in a row. 2001 to 2004 was largely defined by trans-Tasman powerhouse teams, the Crusaders and the Brumbies, with the erratic but highly talented Blues winning a title in 2003. And then Crusaders enjoyed another mini-dynasty in the middle of the last decade, winning back to back titles in '05 and '06 before the Pretoria based Bulls began a dynasty of their own in 2007. The fact that only four teams have ever won a title, and each of these has won multiple tournaments, further illustrates how Super Rugby has tended to be dominated by a few teams that were head and shoulders above their competitors.

But 2011 is different. There is no absolute standout team, and there are seven teams which could still conceivably win the title this year, even at this late stage (Reds, Blues, Stormers, Crusaders, Sharks, Waratahs and even Highlanders). And despite their current their mid table position and poor form, it would be a brave pundit who writes off the Bulls if they can somehow manages a finals spot. Whereas in years past, by this stage of the season one or two teams would have emerged to be clear title favourites, that has not happened this season.

Queensland's Reds are arguably the form team in competition and the team many think most likely to win the tournament. But even the most passionate Reds supporters would concede that their team will have to play to their absolute best simply to make the final, let alone win the title. And as shown by their humiliating loss to the Waratahs in week 2, and loss to the underperforming Hurricanes four weeks ago show, they are a team which can lose to anyone if they are not at the top of their game.

The same can be said for all the other teams in the six. The Stormers, Blues and Crusaders, Sharks and Waratahs have all looked excellent at times, and then mediocre at others. All these teams have lost games they were expected to win, against lesser rated teams. None of the top teams in the tournament have stamped their authority on the competition, and in this way I believe 2011 is a unique Super Rugby tournament.

The next two weekends of rugby should be interesting. If the Reds can beat the Crusaders next weekend, in front of what is shaping as a record Australian crowd, they will have beaten every other team currently in the top 4, and will rightly gain the mantle of being the tournament’s clear favourites. But even if that does happen, once the finals begin I believe some of the more experienced teams will be confident playing the Reds in a semi final or even final. The Reds pack has been in breathtaking form this season, but the more established packs will view them as a potential weakness, particularly at scrum time. And there are still question marks over Quade Cooper’s temperament under finals pressure and defense.

Lastly, the evenness and competitiveness of the tournament is not just evident at the top of the competition ladder, but also at the bottom. Historical strugglers like the Highlanders and Cheetahs have had excellent seasons, and shown that on their day they can beat any team in the tournament. The Rebels have won more games than many predicted pre-season and the much maligned Lions have just beaten the Wallaby laden Brumbies in fortress Canberra. The fact that the bottom placed New Zealand team, the Hurricanes, boast twelve past or present All Blacks in their squad, and were able to beat the table topping Reds just recently again reflects how even this year’s competition is.

I think we are currently witnessing the most competitive competition ever in the history of Super Rugby. And long may this continue. It has certainly contributed immensely to my enjoyment of watching Super Rugby this season, and bodes well for the future of this tournament.
 

#1 Tah

Chilla Wilson (44)
Well, what else can we say, you said it all!

Close to the end of last year, someone posted a website where you could input results and amount of tries for a game, and it gave you the tournament table.

A weapon like that could be handy this time of year.
 

The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
Well said AC. As I pointed out in another thread, this has been one of the more enjoyable Super Rugby seasons for me and there have certainly been some startling results (e.g. the Cheetahs beating the Cru last week). There have been some ordinary games (most of them in the Aussie conference) but there have also been some absolute pearlers too (e.g. Reds v Bulls, Cru v Blues, Sharks v Cru, and Reds v Blues). We have had very few real blowouts in terms of margins and even some of the battlers have turned the tables. From an Aussie point of view it's been a bit disappointing, but the overall standard of the footy has been good. I know there have been some complaints about the conference system, but I don't think it's a coincidence that this has been one of the most watchable seasons in recent memory and it also coincides with the new draw.

I had the Cru as firm favourites a couple of weeks ago, but with the injury toll they have it's wide open now.
 

Ali's Choice

Jimmy Flynn (14)
Well said AC. As I pointed out in another thread, this has been one of the more enjoyable Super Rugby seasons for me and there have certainly been some startling results (e.g. the Cheetahs beating the Cru last week). There have been some ordinary games (most of them in the Aussie conference) but there have also been some absolute pearlers too (e.g. Reds v Bulls, Cru v Blues, Sharks v Cru, and Reds v Blues). We have had very few real blowouts in terms of margins and even some of the battlers have turned the tables. From an Aussie point of view it's been a bit disappointing, but the overall standard of the footy has been good. I know there have been some complaints about the conference system, but I don't think it's a coincidence that this has been one of the most watchable seasons in recent memory and it also coincides with the new draw.

I had the Cru as firm favourites a couple of weeks ago, but with the injury toll they have it's wide open now.

I think there have been a couple of things which have helped make the comp more even.

Firstly in Australia, the introduction of the 5th Australian franchise has seen a spreading of the talent in their conference. That coupled with the ARU's relaxation of rules prohibiting overseas based players signing with its Super Rugby teams, especially in Melbourne, has meant the Australian teams are more even than in previous years.

Equally in NZ, the NZRU has introduced changes to the way players could be signed up by the franchises. Players are now directly signed to franchises, not through the provnces like they used to be. This, and the scrapping of the catchment system which saw players tied to the regions in which their provinces were based, has meant teams like the Highlanders have been able to recruit very well from across NZ.
 

DPK

Peter Sullivan (51)
There'll be a a few more grey haired fans after this season, you just can't take any game for granted anymore.
 

Richo

John Thornett (49)
Congratulations, AC, on an outstanding retrospective summary and assessment of the current situation.

Indeed. I don't know what to add, except to say that I agree and am loving watching the rugby this season (sometimes even when the Tahs play).

The Aussie conference has been a bit disappointing, but the Rebels have kept things lively and I think both they and the Force will be better and more dynamic next season and that should help lift the standard of the conference games.
 

RedsHappy

Tony Shaw (54)
AC: Two disparate but vaguely related points:

1. It will be intriguing in the wash-up of S15 2011 to see the all-countries crowd attendance and TV viewership figures (by country and in aggregate) to determine how, if at all, the more balanced and less predictable competitiveness you describe so well (and the new format) converts into income-yielding outcomes for the S15 as a business.

2. I've noted this before, but it will also be very interesting to see if the new format and, more pertinently, the extended number of games, yields total injury outcomes right across the SH S15 teams that might just come to prejudice the SH teams' competitiveness (one, or all of them) in the 2011 RWC. Even today, and we are far from finished, the injury list affecting many top players is large.
 

Ali's Choice

Jimmy Flynn (14)
AC: Two disparate but vaguely related points:

1. It will be intriguing in the wash-up of S15 2011 to see the all-countries crowd attendance and TV viewership figures (by country and in aggregate) to determine how, if at all, the more balanced and less predictable competitiveness you describe so well (and the new format) converts into income-yielding outcomes for the S15 as a business.

2. I've noted this before, but it will also be very interesting to see if the new format and, more pertinently, the extended number of games, yields total injury outcomes right across the SH S15 teams that might just come to prejudice the SH teams' competitiveness (one, or all of them) in the 2011 RWC. Even today, and we are far from finished, the injury list affecting many top players is large.

Pertaining to your first point, firstly I think even if we don't see an increase in crowds this year, a more even and competitive comp should lead to greater interest in the years ahead.

Secondly, I think when viewing the NZ crowds we need to keep in mind that the Crusaders had the best home attendences last season of the NZ teams, averaging over 20K per home game. Their crowd numbers will obviously be massively lower in 2011 with AMI Stadium out of action, playing 3 games in Nelson (around 10K capacity) and two games in Timaru (12K). This will obviously impact on the average attendences for the NZ conference more generally.
 

Sully

Tim Horan (67)
Staff member
AC I have noticed a worrying lack of attendance at Kiwi games. Well at least it looks to me like crowd numbers are down. Any ideas why? Are you lot saving your money for the World Cup?
 
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TOCC

Guest
Australian Super Rugby crowd firgures:
Year/Total/Average

2006/ 624,443/ 24,017
2007/ 530,818/ 21,233
2008/ 474,273/ 20,621
2009/ 504,198/ 19,392
2010/ 518,255/ 19,933
2011/ 419,613/ 19,073

QLD/NSW/ACT have remained relatively static for the better part of the past 6-7 years, the Western Force have dropped considerably since 2005 which is reflected in the overall Australian figures.

Western Force 2006: 28,235
Western Force 2011: 16,005
 

RedsHappy

Tony Shaw (54)
Australian Super Rugby crowd firgures:
Year/Total/Average

2006/ 624,443/ 24,017
2007/ 530,818/ 21,233
2008/ 474,273/ 20,621
2009/ 504,198/ 19,392
2010/ 518,255/ 19,933
2011/ 419,613/ 19,073

QLD/NSW/ACT have remained relatively static for the better part of the past 6-7 years, the Western Force have dropped considerably since 2005 which is reflected in the overall Australian figures.

Western Force 2006: 28,235
Western Force 2011: 16,005

Thanks TOCC, facts always speak the loudest. I have been derided for my trenchant critique of elements of the ARU's management of the RUs (and the RUs themselves) and the ARU's leadership of the game in general (many rugby lovers seem to believe in the ARU come what may, like prefects love their schoolmasters), but, with all respect to them, to have, as above, a 20.6% effective decline in average crowd S14/15 numbers (and when the population of Australia's cities has probably increased by at least 10% over this same period, ie, the real S14/5 crowd decline is much greater than it looks) is a very poor business/code market share performance by any standard. And, yes, sorry, purists and apologists, crowd numbers are a hugely important economic KPI for the code as, for example, it goes on the drive available levels of big sponsorship $s, income for grass roots development, income for elite player development etc. For any professional sporting code to prosper, sequential income growth year-on-year is crucial.
 

Set piece magic

John Solomon (38)
Well I most certainly agree that it's the best year in terms of competetiveness, which is only good. You look at Australia's number one in terms of attendences, AFL, and those top teams are all competitive with the others (not so much the bottom teams) meaning that each team has a strong following. In NZ, we have the Blues, Crusaders, Highlanders, even the Chiefs could make the finals, meaning they draw strong crowds. In SA, the sharks, stormers and bulls all have a chance meaning they get strong followings. Sadly in AUS we have the Reds up there breaking the Records, The tahs have a good chance but have a PR nightmare on their hands, and the rest are all floppadoppado.
 

Ali's Choice

Jimmy Flynn (14)
AC I have noticed a worrying lack of attendance at Kiwi games. Well at least it looks to me like crowd numbers are down. Any ideas why? Are you lot saving your money for the World Cup?

Last year there was a big increase in crowds in CHCH with the completion of the stadium upgrade. Average home crowds lifted from 16K per game in 2009 to over 20K in 2010. And without looking at attendance figures, I think the Blues home crowds have improved this season. Again, this is partly as a result of the completed upgrade at Eden Park. Supporters generally don’t enjoy sitting in a construction site to watch footy.

However I agree with you that attendances in Hamilton, Wellington and Dunedin have been poor, and declining for several seasons now. And from my experience, and talking to other Kiwi rugby fans, there are a number of reasons behind this dwindling support. These are some reasons, but there are many more.

Form is important. Teams like the Highlanders, Chiefs and Canes have been disappointing in recent years in terms of their on-field performances. Just like in Australia, Kiwi crowds are attracted to teams which are winning. Poor on-field performances lead to a decline in the number of supporters who will attend games. Kiwis grow up watching the All Blacks and expecting their team to win. When their provincial or Super Rugby teams consistently fail to deliver like the ABs do, support can wane.

New Zealand is not a pleasant place to sit outside in winter and do anything, including watching rugby. Basically all Super Rugby games in NZ are now played at night. When it’s below zero outside, windy and wet, people think twice before leaving the warmth and comfort of their home and taking their children to rugby games. I think climatic conditions, coupled with a 24 hour dedicated Rugby Channel, have contributed to NZ being more severely impacted by what I call ‘HD Syndrome’ than other countries. This is where people choose to stay at home and watch sport on 60 inch HD televisions as opposed to actually attending live sport.

There are also a lot of issues regarding the way rugby is now marketed and promoted in NZ. Administrators have turned away from trying to bring families to rugby game, for some reasons thinking that the young 20 something crowd are a better long term target audience. So curtain raisers and marching bands have been replaced with DJs and cheerleaders. Ticket prices have risen, as have food and beverage prices, whilst service standards seem to have declined. As well as turning families away, uni students have been ignored. When I was at Uni in Christchurch in the late 1990s, teams like the Crusaders and Highlanders would heavily market themselves to Uni students by selling package deals to bars that included free busses ferrying students to the games and back to their favourite student bars, as well as cheap tickets and free beers. These type of deals are now frowned upon, yet in the late 1990s the university students were a massive part of the crowds. Overall, the NZ franchises need to re-examine their pricing structures, marketing and their match day entertaining and experience they provide.

The Kiwi Super Rugby franchises, with the exception of the Crusaders and to a lesser extent the Hurricanes, have failed to develop a degree of tribalism amongst the regions which they represent. Rugby in NZ has historically been provincial based, and provincial support is arguably still the most loyal and tribal. Many people view the Super 15 franchises as being contrived entities, and don’t feel strongly about these teams. This isn’t an issue in Australia, were Rugby has traditionally been state based. Super Rugby is arguably an extension of these state rivalries. In many cases, the New Zealand Rugby S15 franchises draw upon regions which include provinces which have historical rivalries. This makes it harder for them to garner support from across their catchment.

Lastly and importantly, I believe the NZRU has devalued Super Rugby in the eyes of NZ supporters. And many rightly wonder why they should pay ever increasing ticket prices to watch a brand of rugby which the NZRU itself does not value. In 2007 the NZRU forced the best twenty players in New Zealand to sit out the first half of the S14 season as part of Henry’s ill-fated reconditioning program. Super Rugby crowds across NZ fell markedly as people decided they didn’t want to pay to watch second string players, and they have never returned to pre-2007 levels. Once people get out of the habit of attending live rugby, and into the habit of watching rugby on TV, it’s hard to get them back to live games. Moreover, in recent years the NZRU has granted All Blacks like McCaw, Carter, Muliaina and Thorn in-season breaks of 2-3 weeks breaks during the Super Rugby, or sabbaticals which allow them to miss entire Super Rugby seasons. Even this season, most of Henry’s top All Blacks are required to miss two games during the S15 season, on top of their byes. These inducements are designed to keep the All Blacks strong, but have resulted in the devaluing of the Super Rugby brand in NZ.
 
T

T.Rugby

Guest
Hey TOCC just wandering do you think that the force crowd numbers have dropped due to the change of venue?? as everytime i see them play it seems like a packed stadium!
 

Ali's Choice

Jimmy Flynn (14)
In terms of assessing the relative interest in S15 rugby in Australia, I think TV viewing figures are more important than attendance figures.
 

The_Brown_Hornet

John Eales (66)
Western Force 2006: 28,235
Western Force 2011: 16,005

Playing at a different stadium with a lower capacity would contribute to those numbers. With that said, a lot of Force members told the management that they would not be renewing if the team stayed at Subi Oval. That place is completely unsuitable for rugby. The new digs are better from a spectators point of view, but the ground is in need of some further development, as it's starting to show its age (it was built in 1904). The poorer performances in 2010 and 2011 are obviously also contributing factors, but I actually find the atmosphere better at Perth Oval than Subi, unless Subi is completely full (as it routinely is for a big test match).

As far as the total crowd figures go, let's wait until the end of the S15 season before making that comparison. I'd be surprised if there wasn't an uptick towards the end, with the Reds and Tahs being in finals contention.
 

qwerty51

Stirling Mortlock (74)
In terms of assessing the relative interest in S15 rugby in Australia, I think TV viewing figures are more important than attendance figures.

I agree. Something needs to be done about the clash with NRL games too imo. There's only 1 game every week that doesn't clash with the NRL (the 1-3am Saffer games don't count obviously). I'm not sure why we can't have games on a Sunday arvo in NZ/Aus, is it because of the turnaround involved with traveling but that would be a start.
 
T

TOCC

Guest
Playing at a different stadium with a lower capacity would contribute to those numbers. With that said, a lot of Force members told the management that they would not be renewing if the team stayed at Subi Oval. That place is completely unsuitable for rugby. The new digs are better from a spectators point of view, but the ground is in need of some further development, as it's starting to show its age (it was built in 1904). The poorer performances in 2010 and 2011 are obviously also contributing factors, but I actually find the atmosphere better at Perth Oval than Subi, unless Subi is completely full (as it routinely is for a big test match).

As far as the total crowd figures go, let's wait until the end of the S15 season before making that comparison. I'd be surprised if there wasn't an uptick towards the end, with the Reds and Tahs being in finals contention.

Hey TOCC just wandering do you think that the force crowd numbers have dropped due to the change of venue?? as everytime i see them play it seems like a packed stadium!

Ive moved any further crowd statistic conversation over here: http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/fo...Super-Rugby-crowd-figures?p=238920#post238920
 
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