Ireland's chances in the RWC?

[Balls_SlanderandRuck]

Oh, I imagine they will find a way. Ignores that fact that 1) Ross was destroyed in the HEC final for a good 40 mins before receiving the help of kiwi Greg Feek to stabilize the scrum. 2) Cullen will not be picked (one of the finest locks in the world!??; he is not even Leinster's best (Hines); he may not even make the bench as O'Callaghan is favoured by Kidney 3) Wallace is the preferred Irish 7 and he's 35 yrs old 4) Ireland's ranking is based on a solid home record but they can't beat SA, France, ABs or Australia away from home.

Hard to scrummage properly when you have a 20stone, Jonah Lomu class prop scrummaging illegally in on you, and the ref refuses to do anything. :thumb

Cullen for a lineout lock is one of the best in the World. I'd class only POC and the three Saffas named before above him (Im prepared to take some stick for that)

 

[Maroon Army]

England vs 3Ns - 32.1%
France vs 3Ns - 30.5%
Scotland vs 3Ns - 17.4%
Wales vs 3Ns - 16.9%
Ireland vs 3Ns - 16.4%
Italy vs 3Ns - 0%

New Zealand vs 6Ns - 83.5%
South Africa vs 6Ns - 66.1%
Australia vs 6Ns - 60.8%

England vs 3Ns (RWC) - 4 wins 8 losses 33.3%
France vs 3Ns (RWC) - 3 wins 4 losses 42.9%
Wales vs 3Ns (RWC) - 1 win 6 losses 14.3%
Ireland vs 3Ns (RWC) - 0 wins 5 losses 0%
Scotland vs 3Ns (RWC) - 0 wins 7 losses 0%
Italy vs 3Ns (RWC) - 0 wins 5 losses 0%

New Zealand vs 6Ns (RWC) - 19 wins 2 losses 90.5%
South Africa vs 6Ns (RWC) - 5 wins 1 loss 83.3%
Australia vs 6Ns (RWC) - 11 wins 5 losses 68.8%

 

[Riptide]

Only Italy have a worse record than Ireland against 3N's teams.. sums it up quite nicely.

 

[Bruce Ross]

A revealing piece of analysis, MA.

 

[Maroon Army]

It is Bruce, but I can't take credit for it because I pinched it from another forum.

 

[BDA]

In my view, Ireland have enough quality players to progress through to the later stages of the tournament.

Although there are a few facts working against that a few people here have already noted:-

1. The team is past their prime. It's undeniable. They were at their peak probably 2007-2009. I thought they were a chance at the last world cup but they fizzled in the end. And I think they'v gone backwards since them. Players like O'Gara and O'Discoll wouldn't get chosen in a wallabies side because there are younger more dynamic players to chose from.

2. Their record against the tri-naitons sides is poor. I'd be shocked if the Wallabies dont run rings around them at the world cup and if they'v never beat the All Blacks, I cant see them starting in the world cup final. They will have to beat at least 2 tri-nations teams to win the tournament.

41/1 is not bad odds though. if they can upset aus and then sneak into the finals, who knows? But I wouldn't put $500 of my hard earned dough on it.

 

[Peaceman]

As I said, the main reason's I placed this bet is because of the odds, it is a crazy bet, I admit that but it is a once in a lifetime bet, I have never done this before or after I probably get burned will never do it again.
I honestly do not think Ireland will win the world cup, I think it is between Aus and New Zealand, but because of current squad form, strenght and fitness I see them as being the next best placed team, unless South Africa pull form out of somewhere. If they beat Australia in the group stages they have a serious chance of getting to the final, if they don't I'd have to say I'd see them losing to either South Africa or New Zealand. As I already mentioned the difference between Australia with or without a consistent kicker is huge, so New Zealand are justified favourites.
I mentioned the issue of the Irish crowd that will be at the group matches. There is a flood of young Irish people in Australia at the moment with a large number also in NZ, many of these are or will be attempting to go to many of the matches and Irish supporters are famous for their vocal support, especially away from home, this could be a huge advantage in close games.
All points and stats alluding to Ireland's weak record against the Southern Hemisphere teams don't bode well for our chances but contrary to what some people are saying, this is the strongest Irish squad to go to a world cup.

 

[potogold]

irish fan here. had to get in on the action.
there seems to be a serious lack of understanding about our irish team. old?? i dont think so. darcy, o driscoll, o connell and o callaghan will be the only starters form the last world cup. our back 3 has completely changed, our out half and scrum half has changed. our back row has changed (wallace will not start if ferris is fit) and our front row has changed.
thats pretty much a new team with a core group of experience. to be honest i hope the australian team goes in with the same attitude here, UNDERESTIMATING, which just should not be done. ok these facts have been bandied around and what not, but the last few times we have played OZ, they have done nothing to warrant ultimate favourites over us, a draw and a narrow loss?? not that impressive..... if be beat australia,( which i just think we will) we should avoid new zealand and south africa, and see what happens from there.
DISCUSS............

 

[Maroon Army]

Ireland won the Grand Slam in 2009 but only drew with a very average Wallaby side at Croke Park, that says MORE about Irish rugby than says about the Wallabies. In fact the only matches that Ireland has won against the Wobs in recent memory has been in Ireland. I understand the passion and the confidence that comes after a good win over England AT CROKE PARK and very good Irish club form. But the facts don't lie, Ireland haven't defeated the Wallabies in Southern Hemisphere since 1979 and never in a World Cup. With all the Wallabies on deck they face an up hill battle to overcome that massive factor.

As for the winning the World Cup, I think the odds take care of any realistic chance Ireland has of winning the RWC. For Ireland to win they most likely will have to beat 2 out of the 3 Tri Nations teams, which is a HUUUUUGE ask considering that they're 0 from 5 at the RWC. They have the never beaten the Allblacks and they aren't going to notch their first win over them on Kiwi soil. As for the Boks, they do have some good form over them but yet again this success was achieved in Ireland.

The only way Ireland can win the World Cup is if the Tri Nations teams suffer from a serious injury toll.


And yes I may be provocking the Rugby Gods.

 

[Balls_SlanderandRuck]

Records are records. They're in the past. They're hardly relevent for the present or future. Irelansd stats against the Wallabies are bad mainly because they weren't really a playing nation before the professional era. Since 1995 their record is much more even against us. Neither one of us especially hammers the other like the case was in the distant past.

Anyone who watched the 6N will of seen Ireland were building up to that England game, and i firmly believe they would of put the same score past England even if it was in twickenham. All through the tournament they played great in their phases only for a stupid knock on or mistake to thwart their progress.

I can tell you now that this Ireland team isnt past it - simply because past it imply's they'll go back to being average. The average age of this team is something like 27, hardly past it especially when the All Black team that played Ireland last november had 29 as their average, and the boks 30. Are the All Blacks past it too lads?

If we go in with this arrogance into the game, Ireland will do an england on us and could well hockey us. Dont fall for the past it excuse or the 'they're from the northern hemisphere!' excuse - our first team could barely beat their third team last summer! at home. Ignorance and arrogance are at the centre of a teams downfall. The all blacks never underestimate and its perhaps why they're the best nation, every decade, all the time.

 

[Maroon Army]

If you think the Wobs will have the same arrogance as me then you're mistaken. I'm just spewing my opinion on a message board. I honestly believe that Ireland is a tad overrated by some people.

I'll also be putting my money where my mouth is come RWC time.

 

[Peaceman]

Obviously not by the bookies, the point that I am trying to make

 

[Maroon Army]

Obviously not by the bookies, the point that I am trying to make

Sorry, that post had nothing to do with yours (I don't think), I'll only be betting on mutli's. I completely understand where you're coming from though.

 

[Balls_SlanderandRuck]

If you think the Wobs will have the same arrogance as me then you're mistaken. I'm just spewing my opinion on a message board. I honestly believe that Ireland is a tad overrated by some people.

I'll also be putting my money where my mouth is come RWC time.

Fair enough bud, your opinions as good as or better than mine. It'll be a cracking game nonetheless.

 

[Maroon Army]

Yeah mate, it's shaping up to be a blockbuster.

 

[Peaceman]

Sorry, that post had nothing to do with yours (I don't think), I'll only be betting on mutli's. I completely understand where you're coming from though.

I know that, your relaid stats probably offer the best insight into the ask that Ireland have ahead of them in a southern hemisphere hosted World Cup. I think that it is a case of a World Cup a year or two too late for the likes of O'Driscoll and D'Arcy while being a year or two too soon for the likes of Sexton, O'Brien, Earls, Ross, Ferris and co. However, in saying that, there was huge pressure on Ireland (a team of 15, not a squad) to perform in the last World Cup held on our doorstep. This time there is a quietly confident, highly competive squad that will be supported by a travelling party mob removed from the elevated nonsense and expectations of the Celtic Tiger. Ireland should be at most 15/1, not the 41/1 that insisted and allowed me to place a ridiculous bet. After all methinks that this is the reason why our Pakistani pundit persisted in posting this topic in the first place.

 

[potogold]

Ireland won the Grand Slam in 2009 but only drew with a very average Wallaby side at Croke Park, that says MORE about Irish rugby than says about the Wallabies. In fact the only matches that Ireland have won against the Wobs in recent memory have been in Ireland. I understand the passion and the confidence that comes after a good win over England AT CROKE PARK and very good Irish club form. But the facts don't lie, Ireland haven't deafeted the Wallabies in Southern Hemisphere since 1979 and never in a World Cup. With all the Wallabies on deck they face an up hill battle to overcome that massive factor.

As for the winning the World Cup, I think the odds take care of any realistic chance Ireland has of winning the RWC. For Ireland to win they most likely will have to beat 2 out of the 3 Tri Nations teams, which is a HUUUUUGE ask considering that they're 0 from 5 at the RWC. They have the never beaten the Allblacks and they aren't going to notch their first win over them on Kiwi soil. As for the Boks, they do have some good form over them but yet again this success was achieved in Ireland

.

yes but the past has nothing to do with the world cup. were new zealand supposed to lose the last one to france in the quarters?? do you honestly think ireland will go forever without winning down under?? i doubt it, there is a first time for everything, especially in a world cup match.

i could just say australia only drew with us because of an intercept try in dublin, or that an average ireland team was barely beaten by australia who were at home, so this irish side will be confident, who cares about the past. new players, new team. same goes for australia

and the win against england is nothing, ireland played the EXACT same way against france scoring 3-1 on tries, they just cut out all the mistakes that let france kick themselves into the game, but noone realises that as they are fixed on this ireland can only play against england talk which is ridiculous.

all we need to do is beat australia and then there is a realistic route to the final, sounds sweet to me>

 

[Riptide]

.


all we need to do is beat australia and then there is a realistic route to the final, sounds sweet to me>

Tiresome schoolgirl twattle. Realistic route to final?

Anyway, as an aside, I'm wondering if this kid going to be the the first of many tiresome posters to wander over from Planet-Rugby, Leinsterfans?

 

[potogold]

Tiresome schoolgirl twattle. Realistic route to final?

Anyway, as an aside, I'm wondering if this kid going to be the the first of many tiresome posters to wander over from Planet-Rugby, Leinsterfans?

ahahaha you again mate, im just checkin out the scene on what u ozzies are thinking, and wanting to have a debate about it,whats the problem?? or do you rather just debate about fellow australians about how good and amazing this ozzie team is??.

and if you ACTUALLY READ my posts im not talking the team up in anyway, im talking down these irrelevant facts. cheers , and yeah leinster rules

 

[BDA]

My memory of that last game at Croke park was that the Irish thought they would beat the wallabies because they were six nations champs. but it turned out that the Wallabies had the wood over them in just about every facet of the game, including the scrum. However with the home crowd behind them they managed to pull out a draw at the death through some miscommuncation in defense. They were VERY lucky to draw that, as I clearly remember that the Wallabies looked the stronger of the two side.

And correct me if I’m wrong but I believe the Wallabies played for 10 minutes with 14 men after Palu was judged to have used no arms in the tackle, which even the Irish commentators thought was harsh.

Ireland are certainly capable of beating the Wallabies. I would rate them above England atm. but if you look at the Wallabies line up going into the WC, they have probably the most dangerous attacking players in the game Genia, Cooper, O’Connor and Beale have shown consistently this year that they are match winners. Genia in my view is the key for Australia as he is so far ahead of any other halfback in world rugby (yes even FDP). Apart from the odd wayward kick his game is flawless.

Cooper and Genia as a pair is proving to be a winning formula, even against the worlds best sides. Look at their record together since the start of 2010. As a pairing they have fronted up against the Crusaders and All Blacks 4 times over the last two years, and theyv won 3 of those games, with the sole loss coming in Sydney by 1 point. Not to say they are better than the All Blacks but they are certainly helping to create a winning mentality amongst the aussie teams.

The Reds this season give a good indication of the kind of speed the Wallabies will play at this season and it’s overwhelmed most teams. The Reds revolve around the speed that Genia and Cooper allow them to play at. The game plan wouldn’t work without a solid forward pack turning up each week, so there is certainly more to them than just those two players but the halves pairing is the impetus.

The Wallabies will be a similar side to the Reds. Although personnel changes in the forwards will allow them to add even more grunt up front. They’ll add (hopefully) a solid scrum. They’ll add a specialist fetcher (Pocock) and an experienced lineout general (Sharpe). On top of that they’ll add genuine match winners to the backline in O’Connor and Beale.

Last season when people said the wallabies should play like the reds I thought that would be a dangerous side, but not necessarily a winning side, given that the Reds brand of rugby was flashy but inconsistent. This year I wouldn’t be troubled if they just gave the club a box of wallabies jerseys and made that our team. I’m not so sure that the Reds wouldn’t beat the Irish. I’d certainly put my money on them at Suncorp. Hell the Crusaders side is the core of the All Blacks side and I would back them over the Irish test side 7 days a week.

I’ve probably gone on a bit here, but I think the Wallabies should be too good for a strong Irish side.