H
Humpakistani
Guest
hello every body here i want to discuss you that how much Chances of Ireland Rugby Team the winning of Rugby world Cup ?
plz suggest your opinion ?
plz suggest your opinion ?
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MrMouse
Bob Loudon (25)
Hi Pakistani,
Statistically, 1/20 (as there are 20 teams). However, they have to make the quarter finals first. They should do that ok, as runner up in Pool C. Probably a 4/5 chance of that.
In that QF they'd probably play South Africa. This is a very, very hard game they're unlikely to win. Ireland have beaten South Africa 4 times in 20 tests, but never away from home. However it's a neutral venue so we'll call it half their historical chance (1/10).
If they do go through to the semis, they play the winner of a likely NZ vs Argentina QF, which you'd assume NZ wins comfortably. Ireland have never beaten the All Blacks in 23 tests (although there was one draw). But it's a big occasion and Kiwis have choked often, so we'll go 0.5/23 (1/46) chance of Ireland winning that game.
I think that France is likely to beat England in that QF, while Australia should beat Wales. This sets up a France vs Aus Semi, which Aus is about 6/10 favourites to win, historically.
If that all comes to pass, it means the final would be Australia vs Ireland. The good news is, Ireland have an 8.5/29 record against Australia, the bad news is it's only 3/13 away. Let's average that out at 23/84.
So, Ireland have 4/5*1/10*1/46*23/84 chance of winning the World Cup. As a percentage, that's about 0.048% chance of Ireland winning the world cup. Not nonexistent, but I wouldn't be betting my house on it.
Hope that helps, and welcome to the forum!
Statistically, 1/20 (as there are 20 teams). However, they have to make the quarter finals first. They should do that ok, as runner up in Pool C. Probably a 4/5 chance of that.
In that QF they'd probably play South Africa. This is a very, very hard game they're unlikely to win. Ireland have beaten South Africa 4 times in 20 tests, but never away from home. However it's a neutral venue so we'll call it half their historical chance (1/10).
If they do go through to the semis, they play the winner of a likely NZ vs Argentina QF, which you'd assume NZ wins comfortably. Ireland have never beaten the All Blacks in 23 tests (although there was one draw). But it's a big occasion and Kiwis have choked often, so we'll go 0.5/23 (1/46) chance of Ireland winning that game.
I think that France is likely to beat England in that QF, while Australia should beat Wales. This sets up a France vs Aus Semi, which Aus is about 6/10 favourites to win, historically.
If that all comes to pass, it means the final would be Australia vs Ireland. The good news is, Ireland have an 8.5/29 record against Australia, the bad news is it's only 3/13 away. Let's average that out at 23/84.
So, Ireland have 4/5*1/10*1/46*23/84 chance of winning the World Cup. As a percentage, that's about 0.048% chance of Ireland winning the world cup. Not nonexistent, but I wouldn't be betting my house on it.
Hope that helps, and welcome to the forum!
#1 Tah
Chilla Wilson (44)
AngrySeahorse
Peter Sullivan (51)
My Irish blood says they are up there with a good chance. However, stats, form, reality, etc all tell me they will struggle.
waratahjesus
Greg Davis (50)
it will be an aus v south africa final. south africa will go back to back.
spectator
Bob Davidson (42)
All Blecks for mine...and comfortably.
MrTimms
Ken Catchpole (46)
Half half mate. South africa will make the final and lose. Aus will win. I have covered the theory before and the winner is the next runner up and Aus has the draw to be in the final so will win.
waratahjesus
Greg Davis (50)
i think if brussow stays healthy the boks are just a better team, he is amazing, he makes pocock look like david croft.
all blacks will choke, to much pressure. the bad thing for the blacks is, there current combinations are coming back to the pack, but do they gamble on youth and excitement like SBW who could win or lose a game or do they keep the same and hope they dont get run down.
all blacks will choke, to much pressure. the bad thing for the blacks is, there current combinations are coming back to the pack, but do they gamble on youth and excitement like SBW who could win or lose a game or do they keep the same and hope they dont get run down.
Finsbury Girl
Trevor Allan (34)
I was going to say Buckley's but they haven't even got that.
Richo
John Thornett (49)
Gotta be one of the biggest questions facing the ABs selectors.
MrMouse
Bob Loudon (25)
Well I stand by my previous analysis. No doubt they pummelled England but the RWC is a different kettle of fish.
Despite the strong choker logic, I find it hard to go past the ABs. They'll either fall over in the quarters or ride the wave all the way, for mine. If Brussow, Smith et al are fit for the Boks they're a strong chance but they need those guys to compensate for ageing giants (eg Matfield). The Wobs I have a lot of trouble figuring out as I'm just too close to it, no idea. England are outsiders as they always turn up, but it's hard to see them doing a 2003.
I think the one thing pretty much everyone on G&GR agrees with is that the RWC11 victor will be from south of the equator...
Despite the strong choker logic, I find it hard to go past the ABs. They'll either fall over in the quarters or ride the wave all the way, for mine. If Brussow, Smith et al are fit for the Boks they're a strong chance but they need those guys to compensate for ageing giants (eg Matfield). The Wobs I have a lot of trouble figuring out as I'm just too close to it, no idea. England are outsiders as they always turn up, but it's hard to see them doing a 2003.
I think the one thing pretty much everyone on G&GR agrees with is that the RWC11 victor will be from south of the equator...
P
Peaceman
Guest
Ireland and the World Cup
Sorry,
New member. Hello I am Irish and I don't bet apart from the Grand National(England) when I am at home and the Melbourne Cup while in Aus. However I have for some reason unknown to myself put $500 on Ireland at 41/1 to win the World Cup. It may sound crazy but for me the odds of 41/1 were even more crazy, especially for a rugby team ranked 4th and who recently outperformed England in a must win game for England (world cup odds 9/1) for the Grand Slam.
Everyone on this forum assumes that Australia will beat Ireland in the group stages but if they don't and Ireland win the group, that is if we beat Italy, then the situation on odds takes on a whole different meaning. I really fancy Australia to win the world cup but they are still without a consistent kicker (you need one to win a world cup), a factor that prevented them from beating New Zealand in most of their recent meetings. New Zealand are the justified favourites, particularly due to home advantage and the form of Dan Carter and Sonny Bill alongside Richie McCaw. However what if the referees come down hard on Richie (there have being one or two calling him out in recent internationals) and possession is limited. The Kiwi pack is not dominant against the top teams, especially not enough to deserve the currrent odds. As for South Africa, too old and no ideas to break down modern defences. France as usual will upset someone, although this time that might be themselves while Englands physicality will cause all the top teams problems.
I understand the form stated and Ireland's record at world cups. However, I have placed my bet because of the odds and only for that reason, I would not have bet on Ireland if they were 12/1 or 15/1 which is what their odds should be, ok well maybe $50. This is a once in a lifetime bet and is probably a result of me being convinced by my friend not to put 300 euro on South Africa at 9/1 six months before the last world cup, how lucky were they against Fiji (J.B Pieterson's tackle in the corner towards the end of the match).
Sorry for the long spiel but one other factor, people haven't factored in the contingent of Ireland rugby supporters that are going to be at the group stage matches as well as subsequent ones if they do well. Anyone who watched Australia defeat a weakened Irish team struggling for form in Brisbane recently will remember the scenes from the huge Irish contingent in the crowd, and that was when we were losing.
This is the most open world cup so far with at least one of six teams with a justifiable chance of winning.
Time will tell
Sorry,
New member. Hello I am Irish and I don't bet apart from the Grand National(England) when I am at home and the Melbourne Cup while in Aus. However I have for some reason unknown to myself put $500 on Ireland at 41/1 to win the World Cup. It may sound crazy but for me the odds of 41/1 were even more crazy, especially for a rugby team ranked 4th and who recently outperformed England in a must win game for England (world cup odds 9/1) for the Grand Slam.
Everyone on this forum assumes that Australia will beat Ireland in the group stages but if they don't and Ireland win the group, that is if we beat Italy, then the situation on odds takes on a whole different meaning. I really fancy Australia to win the world cup but they are still without a consistent kicker (you need one to win a world cup), a factor that prevented them from beating New Zealand in most of their recent meetings. New Zealand are the justified favourites, particularly due to home advantage and the form of Dan Carter and Sonny Bill alongside Richie McCaw. However what if the referees come down hard on Richie (there have being one or two calling him out in recent internationals) and possession is limited. The Kiwi pack is not dominant against the top teams, especially not enough to deserve the currrent odds. As for South Africa, too old and no ideas to break down modern defences. France as usual will upset someone, although this time that might be themselves while Englands physicality will cause all the top teams problems.
I understand the form stated and Ireland's record at world cups. However, I have placed my bet because of the odds and only for that reason, I would not have bet on Ireland if they were 12/1 or 15/1 which is what their odds should be, ok well maybe $50. This is a once in a lifetime bet and is probably a result of me being convinced by my friend not to put 300 euro on South Africa at 9/1 six months before the last world cup, how lucky were they against Fiji (J.B Pieterson's tackle in the corner towards the end of the match).
Sorry for the long spiel but one other factor, people haven't factored in the contingent of Ireland rugby supporters that are going to be at the group stage matches as well as subsequent ones if they do well. Anyone who watched Australia defeat a weakened Irish team struggling for form in Brisbane recently will remember the scenes from the huge Irish contingent in the crowd, and that was when we were losing.
This is the most open world cup so far with at least one of six teams with a justifiable chance of winning.
Time will tell
M
Maroon Army
Guest
I like Ireland and thoroughly enjoy the way they play, unfortuntely the world cup is being played in New Zealand and not a Croke park where they tend to absorb the fantastic energy of the home crowd.
Riptide
Dave Cowper (27)
Ireland struggles to win consistently against top teams and struggles to win away from home period. They havent beaten the ABs ever, and only beaten the Boks in Dublin. They cant beat France except in Dublin so I doubt they can win 3 big games in a row away from home, each against top class opposition. They have never done so before, and so I dont see it happening now. In a one off game against any of the top 5 teams, I dont see them winning. But to win such a game for 3 consecutive weeks? Well, even 41-1 odds dont appear that attractive to me to be honest.
However, the one game I can see them taking is beating Aus in the pool stages. Aus' best game beats Ireland's best but if Aus are not on their game.. well..
However, the one game I can see them taking is beating Aus in the pool stages. Aus' best game beats Ireland's best but if Aus are not on their game.. well..
B
Balls_SlanderandRuck
Guest
I fancy there chances. Hotly. They have the best backrow, bar none, in the world. In their front row they now have Ross, a bullying forward that has held his own against the best scrummagers in the world in the Heineken cup - if anywhere knows how to scrum its props playing up in wet and windy NH conditions. He schooled all of them, even the likes of Domingo whose said to be the best in the world. Because they had a poor front row (without ross who is now their anchor) back before the six nations - the Bookies and rookies wrote them off given them outrageous odds for a No.4 ranked team. The odds have yet to respond to their new team - my advice get their odds now.
They have locks, Paul O'Connell and Cullen who are, bar Matfield, Bekker and Botha, two of the finest locks in world rugby. Expect them to take all of their own lineout ball, and a good deal of yours too.
Their backs are another class above most in the world. France, Ireland, Aus and NZ are in a different class for back divisions currently in world rugby. Sextons like another Carter, O'Driscoll and D'arcy's midfield axis needs no intro, their back three has such talent and such depth its amazing. They will, if they hit their stride, provide some of the most entertaining phases of play in the tournament.
Now thats a run down of their squad. Whoever wins group C will face either Wales/Fiji/Samoa. Aus and Ireland should be able to put these teams away in their sleep. That will mean facing England or France in the Semi's. Both incredibly tough teams, but Ireland can beat England they have something ridiculous like a 7/8 win rate against them currently. Aus may struggle against England, but would beat France. Ironically Ireland would probably lose to France. Thats how bogey teams seem to operate here. England would probably beat france anyway in the quarters, so i'll go for an England Ireland Semi - and we all know who'd win that.
That sets you up with an Ireland All Black final. Well, isnt it all set up for a historical first win? Stranger things have happened, and with the Irish support, both travelling in numbers and the sounds that they can make, well lets say NZ might just feel that they're away from home. Never underestimate the noise of Irish fans.
Realistically i expect a semi final from them. But at that stage of the competition anything can happen. Anything. And a team full of HC winners from Munster and Leinster can pull anything off.
They have locks, Paul O'Connell and Cullen who are, bar Matfield, Bekker and Botha, two of the finest locks in world rugby. Expect them to take all of their own lineout ball, and a good deal of yours too.
Their backs are another class above most in the world. France, Ireland, Aus and NZ are in a different class for back divisions currently in world rugby. Sextons like another Carter, O'Driscoll and D'arcy's midfield axis needs no intro, their back three has such talent and such depth its amazing. They will, if they hit their stride, provide some of the most entertaining phases of play in the tournament.
Now thats a run down of their squad. Whoever wins group C will face either Wales/Fiji/Samoa. Aus and Ireland should be able to put these teams away in their sleep. That will mean facing England or France in the Semi's. Both incredibly tough teams, but Ireland can beat England they have something ridiculous like a 7/8 win rate against them currently. Aus may struggle against England, but would beat France. Ironically Ireland would probably lose to France. Thats how bogey teams seem to operate here. England would probably beat france anyway in the quarters, so i'll go for an England Ireland Semi - and we all know who'd win that.
That sets you up with an Ireland All Black final. Well, isnt it all set up for a historical first win? Stranger things have happened, and with the Irish support, both travelling in numbers and the sounds that they can make, well lets say NZ might just feel that they're away from home. Never underestimate the noise of Irish fans.
Realistically i expect a semi final from them. But at that stage of the competition anything can happen. Anything. And a team full of HC winners from Munster and Leinster can pull anything off.
Riptide
Dave Cowper (27)
Oh, I imagine they will find a way. Ignores that fact that 1) Ross was destroyed in the HEC final for a good 40 mins before receiving the help of kiwi Greg Feek to stabilize the scrum. 2) Cullen will not be picked (one of the finest locks in the world!??; he is not even Leinster's best (Hines); he may not even make the bench as O'Callaghan is favoured by Kidney 3) Wallace is the preferred Irish 7 and he's 35 yrs old 4) Ireland's ranking is based on a solid home record but they can't beat SA, France, ABs or Australia away from home.
dobduff11
Trevor Allan (34)
I rate Ireland, especially since they beat England.
Leinster have really stepped up this year after a bit of an ordinary start, Ulster were quality, Munster pretty decent but not as good as they have been in the past and Connacht were alright as well.
Front row is a bit suspect in the scrum, Cian Healy is dynamite in the loose but not the best scrummager. Mike Ross will probably be quite important if they are to succeed in the RWC.
POC getting back to some form, back row is one of the best in the tournie. SOB, Heaslip, Wallace and Ferris. They will dominate.
They should go for Reddan and Sexton in the halves, ROG is a defensive liability and I don't rate O'Leary at all. Leinster halves will add pace and run the backline. Also allows for the classic Sexton loop which could be a feature of the tournament.
D'arcy was average in the 6 nations but they are unlikely to replace him, Fergus McFadden and Paddy Wallace are decent backups though. Really rate McFadden.
BOD at 13. He will need to emulate his 2003 feats in attack and his 2009 defence to get them far. Without him they are limited in the backs.
Back three, plenty of talent but a few injuries. Bowe Kearney and Fitz will likely be the starters. But kearney hasnt played much at all this season. Fitz was really bad at times in the Heineken Cup but seems to be getting back to form. Earls is rapid and will likely start if Kearney isn't up to it. Fionn Carr from Connacht has been a revelation the past couple of seasons and deserves to be in the squad. Moving to Leinster next season as well.
My Prediction: Second in group, knocked out in Quarters by RSA
Leinster have really stepped up this year after a bit of an ordinary start, Ulster were quality, Munster pretty decent but not as good as they have been in the past and Connacht were alright as well.
Front row is a bit suspect in the scrum, Cian Healy is dynamite in the loose but not the best scrummager. Mike Ross will probably be quite important if they are to succeed in the RWC.
POC getting back to some form, back row is one of the best in the tournie. SOB, Heaslip, Wallace and Ferris. They will dominate.
They should go for Reddan and Sexton in the halves, ROG is a defensive liability and I don't rate O'Leary at all. Leinster halves will add pace and run the backline. Also allows for the classic Sexton loop which could be a feature of the tournament.
D'arcy was average in the 6 nations but they are unlikely to replace him, Fergus McFadden and Paddy Wallace are decent backups though. Really rate McFadden.
BOD at 13. He will need to emulate his 2003 feats in attack and his 2009 defence to get them far. Without him they are limited in the backs.
Back three, plenty of talent but a few injuries. Bowe Kearney and Fitz will likely be the starters. But kearney hasnt played much at all this season. Fitz was really bad at times in the Heineken Cup but seems to be getting back to form. Earls is rapid and will likely start if Kearney isn't up to it. Fionn Carr from Connacht has been a revelation the past couple of seasons and deserves to be in the squad. Moving to Leinster next season as well.
My Prediction: Second in group, knocked out in Quarters by RSA
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