Interpreting "Stats"

[Scoey]

After the game on Sat night - a lot has been said about how bad both teams played etc. I've never been greatly interested in "stats" but I was alarmed enough at reading one such stat that I had to check them.

Apparently on Sat night, we only made 1 line break and it was awarded to Genia.

Can anyone tell me what a "line break" is? Barnes made a good run, beating a few defenders yet somehow this wasn't a line break?

Also, Ant Fainga'a made 11 tackles for 2 misses. OK. Apparently Rob Horne only made 1 tackle?!?! WTF? I refuse to believe that. So can anyone tell me what constitutes a "tackle"?

For the record, I got my stats from ESPN Scrum - statsguru.

Also, I'm not interested in actually discussing the game - plenty of other threads for that - just learning a bit more about stats and what they mean.

Cheers!

 

[Scoey]

I should also add that NZ only made 7 line breaks which seems low? But clearly what I think a line break might be isn't in fact what it is.

Here's another thing I can't work out. The AB's made 122 tackles. We had 82 rucks. So 1 in every 3 tackles didn't result in a ruck. How does this work? Does that sound right?

 

[fatprop]

Yeah the stats site I usually go to had Faainga missing 4, with Horne missing 2 and another one infective

http://www.rugbystats.com.au/matches/rugby/match17233.html

 

[No4918]

Run Metres says a lot. It's one thing to watch the game and see the guys struggling to make any ground but to see just how much harder it was is disappointing.

Wobs - 91 runs for 469m
AB's - 64 runs for 478m

 

[disco]

Samo made a break when he went from the back of the ruck.

 

[Scott Allen]

This is a complex topic but for a little background on the discrepancies between stats providers try this http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/video-statistics-how-accurate-are-they/

 

[Roundawhile]

As always Scott, your contributions are enormous

There are a few people on this site whose posts are very respected, and you are definitely one of them.

Cheers

 

[Scoey]

This is a complex topic but for a little background on the discrepancies between stats providers try this http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/video-statistics-how-accurate-are-they/

Thanks for that Scott, that did help. Can you describe to me what you consider is a line break though?

 

[Scott Allen]

Scoey - I record a line break for the first player in a phase to get beyond (through or around) the main line of defenders but only when they are not being held onto by a defender. In the case of a play from a static point (scrum, lineout or breakdown) it's easy to see where the line is but on a counter attack or kick return that line gets blurred a bit.

An example would be SBW taking the ball to the line and carrying defenders beyond the line - I wouldn't count that as a line break (even though he got beyond the gain line) but if he slipped an offload to a player who broke through the line I would then count a line break (to the player who broke clear).

If the player receiving the offload was immediately tackled by a player in the line but still made ground before going to ground I wouldn't count that as a line break.

To me a line break is a player in the clear.

I can't comment on how the stat companies define a line break but my own numbers usually agree pretty closely with theirs.

 

[Scoey]

Thanks Scott!

 

[Jiggles]

Scoey - I record a line break for the first player in a phase to get beyond (through or around) the main line of defenders but only when they are not being held onto by a defender. In the case of a play from a static point (scrum, lineout or breakdown) it's easy to see where the line is but on a counter attack or kick return that line gets blurred a bit.

An example would be SBW taking the ball to the line and carrying defenders beyond the line - I wouldn't count that as a line break (even though he got beyond the gain line) but if he slipped an offload to a player who broke through the line I would then count a line break (to the player who broke clear).

If the player receiving the offload was immediately tackled by a player in the line but still made ground before going to ground I wouldn't count that as a line break.

To me a line break is a player in the clear.

I can't comment on how the stat companies define a line break but my own numbers usually agree pretty closely with theirs.

For me the stat I like to look at the most, when I can find it, is gain line %. ie. how many times a player successfully gets over the gain line as a proportion of his total runs. I would also like to know the how far on average a player gets over the gain line every time he does get over it. This would take some serious analysis.

Line breaks are all well and good, but its getting over the gain line consistently that momentum is built on. Its for this reason, for example, that I prefer Moore to TPN who seems to make the gain line often and consistently from in tight, as opposed to a couple of runs every now and then.

 

[It is what it is]

For me the stat I like to look at the most, when I can find it, is gain line %. ie. how many times a player successfully gets over the gain line as a proportion of his total runs. I would also like to know the how far on average a player gets over the gain line every time he does get over it. This would take some serious analysis.

Line breaks are all well and good, but its getting over the gain line consistently that momentum is built on. Its for this reason, for example, that I prefer Moore to TPN who seems to make the gain line often and consistently from in tight, as opposed to a couple of runs every now and then.

I wouldn't fancy my gain line stats improving if playing outside Barnes. Only Rob Andrew and Naas Botha stood deeper @ 10.

 

[p.Tah]

Good insight from Wayne Smith on rugby stats

Here is a good example of why stats don’t always tell the truth. In the Super 15 semi-final against the Crusaders, Kieran Read was marauding towards our line when Asaeli Tikoirotuma flicked his ankle. It didn’t stop Read. It made him stumble though. It went down on the sheet as a missed tackle. But that contact slowed Read down enough for the cover to get there and somehow hold the ball up over the line. Tikoirotuma’s ‘missed tackle’ probably saved the game, possibly the Championship and the season.

http://www.therugbysite.com/blog_posts/437-the-stats-do-lie-by-wayne-smith-by-wayne-smith

 

[Slim 293]

That's just like on the weekend when Mogg made two try saving efforts on Savea and who I believe was C Smith that weren't put down as "completed tackles".........

 

[Rassie]

Stats are for entertaining purposes on tv. ^Damn on Wayne for bringing out that Stormers secret. I was so enjoying having a laugh at my fellow Saffers who had all kinds of theories why the Stormers defense is so good.

Yet they forget about the SA way of play. We have a good defense because we take less risks. That is how win WC's and that is why we never will beat the AB by a big margin.

 

[barbarian]

That's just like on the weekend when Mogg made two try saving efforts on Savea and who I believe was C Smith that weren't put down as "completed tackles"...

Surely every tackle a fullback makes at the back is 'try saving', no?

It makes it sound like some heroic effort when really he is just doing his job. If he didn't make those tackles (as was the case with his attempt on Smith) then he would be rightly hounded.
.

 

[Bullrush]

Or when the opposition is camped near the rty-line and the forwards just keep hammering it up, pick-an-go time after time....every tackle there is surely a 'try-saver'

 

[Slim 293]

Surely every tackle a fullback makes at the back is 'try saving', no?

It makes it sound like some heroic effort when really he is just doing his job. If he didn't make those tackles (as was the case with his attempt on Smith) then he would be rightly hounded.
.

But how many Wallabies didn't tackle Savea before Mogg was able to bring him to a halt?

 

[barbarian]

But inevitably as a fullback you will have to cover for other people's fuckups. That's still part of the job. It was a good tackle, but let's not elevate it any higher than it should be.

 

[Slim 293]

I'm not........ just merely pointing out, in regards to the thread topic, that on record Mogg has 0/3 tackles when in reality 2 of those attempts did bring a player to ground.........