As BDA notes above, somehow speculating that a 'takes the 3 points' approach at various game stages would have almost certainly won the match for the Reds is factually ill-considered, it assumes the game post that significantly altered captain's decision would have unfolded just as it did in reality and of course no such assumption can be made. Thus it is pure speculation and theory.
What is not pure speculation is this IMO:
- The Reds'/Link's unrelenting high-octane, hyper-attacking game plan was in effect masterful in conception. To have crossed the Brumbies' line no less than 6 times to the Brumbies crossing the Reds but once based upon a 65/35 possession ration for the match says it all. (And further confirms the notion that the Reds' attack is getting right back to its 2011 best, and perhaps better in some respects, 6 line crosses vs a team of the Brumbies class is quite remarkable, with a 3:1 tries outcome being realised.)
- What cruelled the Reds' game plan was in the detail of flawed execution, e.g., Horwill's knock-on under the posts, Chibba's very poor throw soon after right on the Brumbies' line, impatience at the 2H siege on the Brumbie's line leading to micro-moves that were rushed making it easier the Brumbies to hold the ball carrier up, Lance's wayward passes, Genia's kick out on the full, and so on. Namely, echoes of 2013's earlier Reds' flaws in handling and composure in key moments. Then there were numerous scrum penalties and other penalties that simply gifted points to the opposition, and at least 2 of those penalties were avoidable through tight discipline of a type essential to fully implementing a game plan that took high risks in hyper-attack but which equally required low risk tactics in yielding kickable penalties with the Brumbies excellent kicking capabilities. Look closely at the Reds' early 2013 season and we see that it's these types of execution and handling flaws that at least partly explain relatively few BPs and a weak-ish aggregate +ve PD.
(One wonders if a subtle but potentially key flaw in elements of Link's Reds' management model is a slight tendency to indulge individual player skill deficiencies and not insist on a higher level of personal skill development or dispensing with solid journeyman players no matter how 'culturally compatible' and loyal. We seem to be doing very little external recruitment and trust heavily in local talent pools and players. IMO, there are just too many occasions when the non-star Reds make errors that seem consistent, not exceptional. Lance's and A Finger's passing has been suspect all year for example, and why oh why do we persist with a tight five that seem incapable of creating a dominant scrum that is not a dangerous penalty factory against better scrums (as happened on Saturday) when, for example the Reds post 2011 could recruit the best props and/or scrum coaches in the world?)
In summary, it was erratic execution, uneven skills, and crucial errors in key moments that turned a masterful game plan (so typical of Link) into a merely just-adequate game outcome. To his credit, this is precisely what Horwill knew all too painfully when his first proclamation after the game was 'we really shot ourselves in the foot......'.