Freakonomics: home-field advantage

[Scarfman]

http://www.nfl.com/features/freakonomics/episode-7?module=HP11_cp

The Freakonomics guys take on home-field advantage. Their result: it's the refs.

Interesting how the different sports have different levels of home advantage:

MLB 53.9%
NHL 55.7%
NFL 57.3%
NBA 60.5%
MLS 69.1%

Their theory is that soccer refs can influence a game more than other sports.

Any stats here on home advantage in tests or SupeRugby?

 

[Melbourne Terrace]

You'd find that active home supporters are also likely a major factor as well for mls more than say baseball or yankball

 

[qwerty51]

Surprised NBA isn't higher, the refs can easily manipulate the game and there's already a strong history of that.

 

[antimony]

You'd find that active home supporters are also likely a major factor

I think the two are linked. In very few cases would a ref actively go about giving an advantage to a home team. But its very hard not to be influenced by your surrounds.

If the crowd is constantly appealing for a particular offence by the visiting team to be penalised its very hard to not take notice and at least be more vigilent in policing it.

 

[fatprop]

Freakonomics do one of the best podcasts out there

 

[minorbird]

I remember reading some psychological research once that found crowd noise has an impact of decision-making when referees have to decide whether to award a penalty against the home team, and indeed award significantly less penalties against the home team. Which is why I wasn't surprised that Joubert swallowed his whistle at the end of the RWC Final...

 

[qwerty51]

Had a little more to do with the context of the match than the actual crowd I reckon. Joubert went into the game knowing there was only one result happening.

 

[MajorlyRagerly]

Jeez, who didn't see this thread going down this path.....

 

[Blue]

Surprised NBA isn't higher, the refs can easily manipulate the game and there's already a strong history of that.

The nature of the game is such that Team A can easily be beater by Team B tonight by 30 and get up and turn it around tomorrow. Often down to individual performance or lack thereof.

They are monitoring NBA games in an incredbile anmount of details since the scandal a couple of years ago. David Stern is pretty tough and won't let that happen easily again.

 

[minorbird]

Jeez, who didn't see this thread going down this path.....

I'm not saying its some sort of conspiracy, but its understandable that he did swallow his whistle. I think Bryce Lawrence in the SA vs. Aus semi is a good example of what happens when a ref is overwhelmed by pressure and as a result their decision-making slows and is less accurate.

 

[Hawko]

Some research in the Super comp that would be really interesting is whether home team advantage is boosted by the noise supporters make. You would think that home ground advantage would be stronger at the Stormers and Reds and weaker at the Waratahs, Cheetahs and Highlanders. You'd need to be a bit of a statistical genius to take out some of the other factors [like Kaplan's refereeing of the Tahs when the noise level (abuse) increases but he just penalises the home team more] but surely there's a PhD student out there with the statistical smarts.

I know... the thread's now degenerated into a Kaplan hate session. Just can't help myself.

 

[Cutter]

What we need is a formulaic relationship between supporter decibels and referee decision making. The mathematicians are the crazy prophets on the hill!

 

[Eyes and Ears]

http://www.sportingintelligence.com...s-hand-big-advantage-to-own-countries-290702/

An old study but it definitely provides a strong argument for the return of neutral referees.

 

[Swat]

Freakonomics do one of the best podcasts out there

You clearly haven't heard TOFOP...

 

[Swat]

I think the two are linked. In very few cases would a ref actively go about giving an advantage to a home team. But its very hard not to be influenced by your surrounds.

If the crowd is constantly appealing for a particular offence by the visiting team to be penalised its very hard to not take notice and at least be more vigilent in policing it.

Very true, can anyone here claimed to have shouted "Forward!" or "Not straight!" when it was your team passing or throwing in?

 

[mjw]

OK, Swat, what is TOFOP?

 

[Swat]

It's a podcast by Wil Anderson and Charlie Clausen and it is f*cking hilarious and absolutely free... I have a fair few long drives with work and always listen to it in my car, I've had to pull over on the side of the road because I was laughing so much I was in tears... Also, won't be everyone's thing but if you've got a twisted sense of humour and nothing is off limits then I highly recommend... available from itunes and tofop.com