There were two things that stood out to me as glaringly obvious reasons why we couldn't seem to get a foothold in the game.
- Skill sets (to use a term thrown around by the AB's). We dropped an unacceptable amount of pill in contact. It was diabolical. It was related both to poor execution and putting our attack under pressure (see point 2). We also didn't consistently get our body height down in contact (carrying or cleaning out).
- lack of leadership nous (not just from Hooper but also the men in key playmaking positions) to not try different options here and there in the face of an accurate and committed french defense. The French played a pressure defence, similar to what Cheika is trying to drive at the Wallabies but the difference was that they coupled that with the Brumbies-like strategy of competing for the ball at every ruck and making every effort to slow the delivery for the next phase. It worked (due in part to the referee's interpretation and part to the inconsistent technique in the carry and clean out). If we'd had an experienced player(s) with an educated general kicking game on the field for longer I believe we probably would have played a lot more time in the french 40 and put them under much more pressure.
Make no mistake, the French played well. I'd be surprised if any team in the world bar the AB's wasn't going to be run close by them last night. But the Wallabies have to beat good teams that are in form to be taken seriously.
So what is the solution? What do we do when we play badly but come close? Would we do the same if we'd won? I don't believe so, and therefore it is perhaps a good thing we didn't win at the death.
We need more kicking options in general play, this probably means that one or both of quade or To'omua should start. Who to leave out out of Foley or Leali'ifano is a difficult one, because both, while having ups and downs last night, were poor overall. It could go either way but I'd lean towards resting Lilo (injured anyway?) and starting To'omua with Foley with Quade planned to get more minutes.
Skill sets you can't really change by swapping out players. Not at this stage anyway. That can only come from training standards and a solid mental approach. I'd probably retain the starting tight 5 who were quite good in the set piece early on. Bring back Higgers if he is fit and if not give Jones an opportunity at 6 and let McMahon have a rest. He's young and small. Speight must be champing at the bit to get on the field and could potentially take some pressure off Izzy to be a running threat so he's worth the gamble. Plus, I don't really believe the backline is worse for having to play the end of the game with TK and AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) in the centres and Speight on a wing as opposed to Horne at 12 in the event of an injury. I also think that the last two tests have been conclusive evidence that Skelton needs more time in the oven to sharpen his set piece skills.
So we end up with;
1. Slipper
2. FTS
3. Keps
4. Simmons
5. Horwill
6. Higgers (if fit) Jones if not
7. Hooper
8. Big Dog
9. Phipps
10. Foley
11. Tomane
12. To'omua
13. TK
14. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
15. Izzy
16. Chibba
17. Robbo
18. Benny A
19. Carter (if fit), Jones if not, Skelton only if Higgers and Carter out.
20. Hodgson
21. Genia
22. Cooper
23. Speight
That and some prayers.