Chances of making finals

[FrankLind]

Shamelessly ripped from the Fern...(credit to Crucial)

Had a quick play a round on a spreadsheet where I took the current points, added any 'free' points from upcoming byes to give an effective total. Then took 60 as a possible cutoff for the top 6 (although I suspect it may be slightly lower this year). The figure below is the avg points each team needs to score in their remaining matches to hit the cut off

Chiefs (6) 2.66
Brumbies (5) 3
Bulls(6) 3.16
Reds (5) 3.4
Blues (7) 3.43
Cheetahs (6) 3.5
Crusaders (6) 3.66
Stormers (7) 4.43
Sharks (6) 4.5
Hurricanes (6) 4.66
Waratahs (6) 5
Rebels (6) 6.33
Highlanders (7) 6.6
Kings (6) 6.8
Force (5) 7.6

Of course, if the cut off is lower it changes these numbers, but there is at least a strong indication that Rebels, Highlanders, Kings, Force are screwed.
Stormers, Sharks, Canes, Tahs must win all of their remaining or their avg needed is over 5.
Reds, Blues, Cheetahs and Crusaders would need to score bonus point wins all they way if they drop one more.

If I drop the target to 57 (it was 59 last year) then the bottom 4 are still stuffed. Tahs can't afford a single loss (unless they get losing bonus points in it) and Canes and Sharks are walking a similar tightrope.

Stormers and Crusaders must have a very strong run home but are still within a reasonable mathematical chance.

Box seat is obviously Brumbies and Chiefs who could probably get away with a 50% record and still make it. Bulls, Reds and Blues are looking a good shot although if the Reds lose 2 of their remaining 5 they will be sweating.

The all important derbies coming up will have a huge impact.

 

[Lindommer]

Already this season the Tahs will rue those six squandered points not picked up against the Cheetahs, Canes and Bulls. It's vitally important in this competition points be grabbed whenever possible, to get close to ANY point(s) and not bag them is a sure way to finish up down the ladder.

The Tahs have a particularly difficult end to this year's Super season: they've got quite a bit of travelling to do (Melbourne, Christchurch and Perth in successive weeks) and/or they play teams above them on the ladder (Ponies, Saders and Reds). Except the Stormers this weekend, whom I'll wager will finish above the Tahs come season's end. The next six matches will be a stern test for Cheika in his first season.

 

[Braveheart81]

The Crusaders beating the Brumbies certainly hurt the chances of the teams below them. Realistically the teams on the outer need the Chiefs, Brumbies and Bulls to win all their games and for the cellar dwellers to pull off some upsets.

For a team like the Tahs who really need to win every game to make the semis, their destiny becomes somewhat more controllable because of how hard their draw is. Beating the Stormers and Crusaders will significantly dent the finals chances of both those teams.

 

[daz]

Rebels (6) 6.33
Highlanders (7) 6.6
Kings (6) 6.8
Force (5) 7.6

Of course, if the cut off is lower it changes these numbers, but there is at least a strong indication that Rebels, Highlanders, Kings, Force are screwed.

For the Rebels at least, any talk of finals is just so much hot air in the wind and cannot be seriously considered. I think there are only two realistic goal's for the rest of the season:

1) Win more games than last year.
2) Finish above the Tahs and the Force.

That is the only thing that will save coach Hill. And even then it might be too late.

 

[fatprop]

Worst you can do is roughly loose 6 and only collect 11 bonus points

Tahs have already lost 5 and collected only 2 bonus points - no chance

 

[Jets]

Having a look at it I think the Reds are in a good position. If they can beat the Sharks in Brisbane (their last home game) then I think it will require one win in SA, thinking it could be the Stormers, then they have to beat the Tah's in Sydney in the final round. If they can get 2 wins in SA and a few bonus points it will take the pressure off that last game.
Drop one game and life becomes hard. If the Tah's keep playing well then I'd expect a healthy crowd for the final round game.

 

[Penguin]

Reds still meet the Rebels at home Jets, so two at the Fortress to go. However your point remains, they just have to do well in the Republic and bonus point wins are a must! That last game against the Tah's is going to be difficult, hopefully there will be no rustiness after the test series break..... though I guess NSW will be in the same boat.

 

[cyclopath]

Tahs are no real chance, but they can be a big pain in the arse for some teams. At this point, they are behind where I think they ought to be by about 4-5 points. That said, if they play out the season in a similar manner to the last game, and improve in the area of execution, they'll be well poised for next year to be closer to the pointy end. And I would be reasonably happy with their progress.
Reds and Brumbies should both be comfortable, but don't want too many off games - there is a cluster developing up top!

 

[Braveheart81]

Out of all the teams in the middle of the table, the Stormers have an excellent run home.

They've got the Tahs and then the Rebels away then have home games against the Reds, Kings and Cheetahs followed by the Kings away and then the Bulls at home.

Two of your last four games against the Kings and four of your last five at home sounds too good to be true!

 

[Rassie]

Stormers got two games vs the Kings left. Plus Bulls at home and Cheetahs at home. So count the 8 they pick up in Australia the 10 for the the 2 Kings games and 8 points for the Bulls and Cheetah's games that leave them with 26 points....

Yes I know I am dreaming maybe but nothing is wrong about having a positive outlook on a up and down season.

 

[RedsHappy]

For the Rebels at least, any talk of finals is just so much hot air in the wind and cannot be seriously considered. I think there are only two realistic goal's for the rest of the season:

1) Win more games than last year.
2) Finish above the Tahs and the Force.

That is the only thing that will save coach Hill. And even then it might be too late.

Apologies for a side point. Daz, for you and Cyclo (as above), surely an absolutely critical KPI or goal for the Rebels and the Tahs (and the Force whilst I'm at it) is that of getting the average crowd numbers really trending up.

For mine, this is probably way more important than gaining any particular S15 table points for 2013 as (a) surely the current average gate numbers can't be economically sustainable and (b) if the gate numbers are rising on a good trend, that's the hard-facts proxy you need for a team that is really gaining attention and starting to excite its public.....and with that achieved outcome will almost certainly come 2014 S15 points gains over 2013!

 

[daz]

Apologies for a side point. Daz, for you and Cyclo (as above), surely an absolutely critical KPI or goal for the Rebels and the Tahs (and the Force whilst I'm at it) is that of getting the average crowd numbers really trending up.

Agree with you on this RH. The rebels need the fan base to grow and be rock solid.

Interestingly, while I have not researched the average numbers from 2011 to 2013, the Rebels cracked 13K for the game against the Chiefs last week, which if I am not mistaken was the biggest crowd I have seen in 2 seasons.

Sadly though, the biggest crowds are not when we play an Oz derby, but when we play NZ teams, given the Kiwi population in every fucking nook and cranny in the country.

 

[cyclopath]

Apologies for a side point. Daz, for you and Cyclo (as above), surely an absolutely critical KPI or goal for the Rebels and the Tahs (and the Force whilst I'm at it) is that of getting the average crowd numbers really trending up.

For mine, this is probably way more important than gaining any particular S15 table points for 2013 as (a) surely the current average gate numbers can't be economically sustainable and (b) if the gate numbers are rising on a good trend, that's the hard-facts proxy you need for a team that is really gaining attention and starting to excite its public...and with that achieved outcome will almost certainly come 2014 S15 points gains over 2013!

If they do what I hope they will in the rest of their season, I think crowd numbers will be on the up. They have already improved the atmosphere at games (crowds are louder, most seem to agree) and I'm sure numbers will follow if they keep entertaining. If they can re-sign Folau, it sure won't hurt. I'm sure some will take issue with that statement, but he is generating a buzz in Sydney. I know it irks fans outside Sydney to have to read all the 'hype' from Sydney-based journos, but it's a big market. I'm optimistic.

 

[Badger]

I know it irks fans outside Sydney to have to read all the 'hype' from Sydney-based journos, but it's a big market. I'm optimistic.

I love how it irks the leagues fans and the associated commentators more. What will they say if Folau stays in union? Any chance the Tahs could put together enough 3rd party deals to get SBW for a year in 2014?

Agreed that the Tahs are nothing more than nuisance value now and could affect where the Brumbies and Reds finish on the table with wins against them which would be amusing as a Tahs fan.

 

[Richo]

After the Cheetahs game, as we forlornly rued the missed opportunities, my group agreed that if things came good for the Tahs, that would be the game they regretted. Really needed to take the 4 points on that one. I think we'll end up ranked 7 or 8 and a few points shy.

 

[Lindommer]

Stormers.....count the 8 they pick up in Australia.....

Someone tell him he's dreamin'.

 

[rugbysmartarse]

Realistically the tahs 2014 season planning started after the canes. Had we beaten the cheetahs earlier and picked up a few more BPs it might be a different storey. But they didn't, and it isn't. The positive though is that since that loss the 2014 season is looking up.

 

[qwerty51]

We've already lost to the Force away, going to be without Robinson, TPN, maybe Kepu, Douglas, maybe Timani, Hooper, Palu, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper), Folau

 

[Braveheart81]

I wonder what sort of side the Tahs will be able to put out against the Force?

Kepu/Tilse
Ulugia
Ryan
Timani/Douglas (or maybe neither) otherwise Skelton
Chapman
Dennis
McCutcheon
L Timani
McKibbin
Foley
Betham
Barnes
Horne
Mitchell
Crawford

Holmes
Tilse/who knows?
Atkins
Holloway
Kingston
Volavola
Lucas

The backline is actually still really good. Currently with the players available there are actually several options (keep Horne at 12, play Kingston at 13 and Barnes at fullback for example).

 

[qwerty51]

That's better than I thought, likely the Force won't lose anyone.