CAS 2018
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WLF
Arch Winning (36)
Oh c'mon Rod, this arena needs some tribalism, not safe politics, of course you think and hope that Barker will win, that feeling is clear in your game posts to date,and the Barker results, and so you should feel confident, so speak up and tell us why Barker will beat all by plenty!
P.S. Except at Death Valley.
rod skellet
Desmond Connor (43)
Oh c'mon Rod, this arena needs some tribalism, not safe politics, of course you think and hope that Barker will win, that feeling is clear in your game posts to date,and the Barker results, and so you should feel confident, so speak up and tell us why Barker will beat all by plenty!
P.S. Except at Death Valley.
OK. You got me. This year, Barker on their day are 15 points better than any other CAS team I have seen. That includes Waves and Trinity. Now you can congratulate me for successfully putting the mocka on their season. And while I am at it, if i was choosing a CAS1st XV for this year, the tight 5 would be all Barker. Dring and Flaherty are standout selections in my view as is Pollard and Reimer. As for Collison and Wilson the two props. They have bested every front row they have faced this year, which includes 2 of the 3 likely contenders for the GPS slots.....Up the Reds.
WLF
Arch Winning (36)
Beautiful, that's what we want to hear, I am sure you feel better now.
Yep, right up the Reds!
Now get over your dreams, rest assured reality will hit at Death Valley!
Kind Regards WLF.
S
sidelineview
Guest
Tips for the first Round CAS Henry Plume Shield.
Not having seen any Trial games live, I'm going on reports.
Waves over Knox. It's a very important game for both teams to get off to a good start to the season. One slip and you could be gonski in a one-round comp, as far as winning the Shield is concerned. It could be a tough match for the Double V playing away at Knox but I'll tip them to win.
Alos over Trinity. Just a guess really.
Barker to account for Cranbrook easily.
Barring any unfortunate injuries to key players ( a lot of Rep footy will be played in the meantime), Barker and Waves could be undefeated by Round 4 (4th Aug) which would set up a cracker of a game at Death Valley. If that's how it eventuates, you wouldn't miss this game for quids. It could be Back to Queens Park Day as well, which would see a huge crowd turn up.
Jumping the gun a bit there, but we'll see.
Not having seen any Trial games live, I'm going on reports.
Waves over Knox. It's a very important game for both teams to get off to a good start to the season. One slip and you could be gonski in a one-round comp, as far as winning the Shield is concerned. It could be a tough match for the Double V playing away at Knox but I'll tip them to win.
Alos over Trinity. Just a guess really.
Barker to account for Cranbrook easily.
Barring any unfortunate injuries to key players ( a lot of Rep footy will be played in the meantime), Barker and Waves could be undefeated by Round 4 (4th Aug) which would set up a cracker of a game at Death Valley. If that's how it eventuates, you wouldn't miss this game for quids. It could be Back to Queens Park Day as well, which would see a huge crowd turn up.
Jumping the gun a bit there, but we'll see.
Hasbeen
Bob Loudon (25)
Ooooh yeah.
rollin_maul
Peter Burge (5)
Why I dont think Wavely will win CAS
(Written by someone who hasn't overdosed on blue [or red] cordial).
Waverly has some very skilled individuals, potential match-winners even. But such players can only consistently win matches (and be reasonably expected to win the big ones) when they consistently get good possession in good field position.
And here is the catch. To get good possession in good field position you need a tight 5 that can at least match (or better yet, dominate) their opposition.
And herein lies the potential problem. From what i have seen this season, I don't think Waverly have the tight 5 to create the opportunities their potential 'match winners' will need to win the important matches.
For example, I would pick Barker's 1 to 5 ahead of the Waverly 5 if i were a CAS selector, which of course I am not.
Last year, Waverly had a more dominant tight 5 than this year. If I recall correctly, all of them made NSW 1 or 2, or Combined States. This year, i think only 1 Waverly tight 5 player will make CAS 1sts.
Last year, it was the hard and very effective work put in by the tight 5 that gave the likes of Donaldson and Hardaker that extra second's time to make the brilliant plays. Sure, they did pull off some amazing moves from back-foot ball. But most of the time it was off the back of solid lead up work from the engine room.
With all due respect to the current crop of players, I can't see the likes of Hutchison-Walters (where was here last year btw???) and others getting the same time and space this season.
I might be completely wrong and happy to be proven so btw. But if we take all the personal teams biases/wishes out of the equation and look at the prospects for a team on a more analytical/scientific basis, I just don't think Waverly will have the grunt up front it needs to win CAS again this year.
All this said, I still think they are a very good side and should win more than they lose. I think Barker deserve to be favourites and have Waverly at 2nd, closely followed by Trinity at 3rd.
(Written by someone who hasn't overdosed on blue [or red] cordial).
Waverly has some very skilled individuals, potential match-winners even. But such players can only consistently win matches (and be reasonably expected to win the big ones) when they consistently get good possession in good field position.
And here is the catch. To get good possession in good field position you need a tight 5 that can at least match (or better yet, dominate) their opposition.
And herein lies the potential problem. From what i have seen this season, I don't think Waverly have the tight 5 to create the opportunities their potential 'match winners' will need to win the important matches.
For example, I would pick Barker's 1 to 5 ahead of the Waverly 5 if i were a CAS selector, which of course I am not.
Last year, Waverly had a more dominant tight 5 than this year. If I recall correctly, all of them made NSW 1 or 2, or Combined States. This year, i think only 1 Waverly tight 5 player will make CAS 1sts.
Last year, it was the hard and very effective work put in by the tight 5 that gave the likes of Donaldson and Hardaker that extra second's time to make the brilliant plays. Sure, they did pull off some amazing moves from back-foot ball. But most of the time it was off the back of solid lead up work from the engine room.
With all due respect to the current crop of players, I can't see the likes of Hutchison-Walters (where was here last year btw???) and others getting the same time and space this season.
I might be completely wrong and happy to be proven so btw. But if we take all the personal teams biases/wishes out of the equation and look at the prospects for a team on a more analytical/scientific basis, I just don't think Waverly will have the grunt up front it needs to win CAS again this year.
All this said, I still think they are a very good side and should win more than they lose. I think Barker deserve to be favourites and have Waverly at 2nd, closely followed by Trinity at 3rd.
WLF
Arch Winning (36)
Fair enough RM,
Can't fault your logic,Barker appear to be favs, but I think the Waves pack is stronger than you think. Back rowers can also win matches.
The other reason which I think could be misleading are the trial games played so far by both teams.
I think it's fair to say that the Waves may have had harder competition than Barker.
If Joeys gets soundly beaten by Scots at Joeys this weekend then I think it's fair to say that Barker have only claimed 1 strong scalp, Kings.
Time will tell and baring injuries.
S
sidelineview
Guest
Barker deserve to be favourites, for sure, but a week can be a long time in a footy season, so anything can happen in 7 weeks (until the 4th Aug Waves v Barker). I dont wish injuries onto any side but injuries can play a big part in any school's season.
Then depth comes into play.
I'm assuming that Waves and Barker will be undefeated by the time they clash at Death Valley on the 4th August, but I shouldn't assume anything because Aloys and Trinity have shown some good form in the Trials. They dont look like they'll be easybeats.
Needless to say, Saturday's game v Knox is important for Waves. Knox havent been in good form so far in the Trial games, but cant be underestimated at home.
Waves dont want to slip up and let this one get away.
Then depth comes into play.
I'm assuming that Waves and Barker will be undefeated by the time they clash at Death Valley on the 4th August, but I shouldn't assume anything because Aloys and Trinity have shown some good form in the Trials. They dont look like they'll be easybeats.
Needless to say, Saturday's game v Knox is important for Waves. Knox havent been in good form so far in the Trial games, but cant be underestimated at home.
Waves dont want to slip up and let this one get away.
rollin_maul
Peter Burge (5)
Fair enough, but what strong scalps have Waverly claimed?
Shore - twice - expected to finish last in GPS
Newington - big improvers but still likely to finish 3 - 5 in GPS
St Augs - who are a great side, but Waverly played them 4 days after they returned home from Japan after playing something like 5 games in as many day days in an international schools tournament. Almost a big scalp then.
I think both Waverly and Barker have had very encouraging trials and Waverly in particular have experimented more with tactics and personnel. Barker was a more settled side given transition from last year's team.
But I still think Barker will win and the difference will be the tight 5s.
Just my thoughts though.
Shore - twice - expected to finish last in GPS
Newington - big improvers but still likely to finish 3 - 5 in GPS
St Augs - who are a great side, but Waverly played them 4 days after they returned home from Japan after playing something like 5 games in as many day days in an international schools tournament. Almost a big scalp then.
I think both Waverly and Barker have had very encouraging trials and Waverly in particular have experimented more with tactics and personnel. Barker was a more settled side given transition from last year's team.
But I still think Barker will win and the difference will be the tight 5s.
Just my thoughts though.
S
sidelineview
Guest
I agree Barker will be strong and deserve to be favourites. I also agree that Barker have a more settled team that has flowed on from last season.
But I dont think too much emphasis can be placed on trial form except from a supporters point of view. That is, from someone who has seen every trial game of a particular team and is aware of how the coaches have experimented with combinations and replacements etc.
Some teams may have had players missing .... what teams have already had injuries to players?
I'm not degrading the value of the trial games; they've generated a lot of interest and have served a purpose but it wasn't imperative to win every game from a Coaches point of view.
It will be a different ballgame come Saturday when every team and Coach will be more focused on maximum team performance and would have settled on selections and combinations.
WLF
Arch Winning (36)
Running_rugby_1954
Ron Walden (29)
People saying it’s a two horse race are forgetting that Trinity and Barker both beat Joeys by the same margin.
Knox, Waverley and Barker have all beaten Shore.
Barker and Waverley lost to Riverview by the same margin.
Knox, Waverley and Barker have all beaten Shore.
Barker and Waverley lost to Riverview by the same margin.
Running_rugby_1954
Ron Walden (29)
There is at least four teams that can win this premiership in 2018.
S
sidelineview
Guest
Having a 'settled' team going into Round 1 is a huge advantage. That's how Barker has been described for 2018; not only strong but settled.
Waverley was the same last season; the team was full of talented players who had played together at school and Club level for years and quite a few of the team had previous 1st XV experience, which is important. Ditto for Barker this season.
The 2017 Waves team burst out of the blocks to play good footy from start to finish. However, they just scraped home against Barker @ Barker with two of their best players missing. They relied on their depth that day which was strong. That game could have gone either way but they managed to just win to avoid sharing the Premiership with Barker. Barker convincingly defeated Knox the following week.
The 2016 Waverley team on the other hand took half a season to really hit their straps, in a two-round comp. They were beaten by Knox in the 1st round but improved out of sight by the time they played them again in round 2 at Death Valley. They won that game and shared the Premiership with Knox.
Some may disagree, but the 2016 Double V team would have given the 2017 team a run for their money towards the end of the season but not at the start.
While Barker has an advantage in being settled this season, Waves dont seem like that and could take time to play to their potential.
Ditto for other teams such as Trinity and Aloys.
From Waverley's point of view, and given they win their other games; I'm not cocky that they will, I'm glad the clash with Barker is later rather than sooner.
Waverley was the same last season; the team was full of talented players who had played together at school and Club level for years and quite a few of the team had previous 1st XV experience, which is important. Ditto for Barker this season.
The 2017 Waves team burst out of the blocks to play good footy from start to finish. However, they just scraped home against Barker @ Barker with two of their best players missing. They relied on their depth that day which was strong. That game could have gone either way but they managed to just win to avoid sharing the Premiership with Barker. Barker convincingly defeated Knox the following week.
The 2016 Waverley team on the other hand took half a season to really hit their straps, in a two-round comp. They were beaten by Knox in the 1st round but improved out of sight by the time they played them again in round 2 at Death Valley. They won that game and shared the Premiership with Knox.
Some may disagree, but the 2016 Double V team would have given the 2017 team a run for their money towards the end of the season but not at the start.
While Barker has an advantage in being settled this season, Waves dont seem like that and could take time to play to their potential.
Ditto for other teams such as Trinity and Aloys.
From Waverley's point of view, and given they win their other games; I'm not cocky that they will, I'm glad the clash with Barker is later rather than sooner.
S
sidelineview
Guest
I dont think it's a two horse race.
It would be foolish to underestimate Aloys, Trinity and Knox.
It looks like Cranbrook may struggle but things will be clearer after Round 1.
However, Barker is the team to beat and are likely to play strongly from Round 1.
BRUMBIEJACK
Larry Dwyer (12)
Very good post and must agree with much of what you say. The only uncertain element is the fact that I get the sense that Waverley has used the trials to trial, whereas Barker may have used the trials to confirm. Whether this will have an impact at the end of the day we'll know in a few weeks but the Waverley side has been much more varied than Barker from what I can gather. Will this matter at the end of the day ? Who knows as it is schoolboys but it would be nice if the Barker v Waverley game was a bit of a shootout as rugby needs these matches to attract crowds at this level and to remind people how good the game can be when played freely and with passion. Looking forward to the start of the real rounds and the upsets that will inevitably flow.
WLF
Arch Winning (36)
Nice comment Brumbie,
The BIG matches are those that people tend to live on.
There were 2 last year, Barker v Waves and Waves v Knox.
The crowd at QP was 5000+, who knows how many, but a game that will always be remember by all.
I might add that it is now that the coaching ability really comes into play.
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