Exactly right. Of the Reds, Shorks and Clan, the Reds have the easiest run home. Fingers crossed that either the Shorks or Clan (or both!) drop their bundle. The good thing is, both teams have a habit of losing their shit at the end of the regular season too.
There might well be two Aus teams in the finals yet. Realistically, if the Brumbies stay in third overall, then the Reds need to climb to 5th. If the Reds just scrape in to 6th, they will play each other in the first week of the finals.
If the Reds can win the rest of their games (and don't catch the Brumbies) they'd need to finish above 3 of the top 9 sides.
Provided they can win the rest of their games, they'd need:-
- Hurricanes to lose at least 1 game - almost a certainty
- Highlanders to lose at least 1 game (maybe two) - given that they will be playing them at suncorp this is not a major problem.
- Sharks to lose two game - mm not sure that will happen. We really need to Stormers to beat them in Durban this weekend. They have a 5 pointer against the Lions before the break. They also play the Bulls and the Cheetahs, both at home. IF the lose to the stormers this week, they might trip up against the Bulls in week 20. But they're in good form atm.
- Bulls to lose three games - not out of the question. They play chiefs this weekend . If they lose that we'd need two more. They play the stormers at home next week and then the Sharks (away) in week 20. They are the only games I could see them losing.
- Saders to lose two games - cant see it happening but not impossible. They have the Chiefs away (which will be close) otherwise they play the Canes and Highlanders at home and the force
- Chiefs or Stormers to lose 4 of the last 5 games - no chance.
What does this all mean? the Reds desperately need the Sharks and Bulls to lose this weekend, to give them a realistic chance.