Definitely the story of impotent offence (least clean breaks, least metres, 2nd least defenders beaten, least offloads, 3rd least points scored) and solid defence (2nd best tackle rate, 3rd least points conceded, 4th least tries conceded, least clean breaks conceded) from the Brumbies, while the Hurricanes have a slightly better defence (6th best tackle rate, 2nd least points conceded, 3rd least tries conceded, 4th least clean breaks conceded) and a fantastic offence (Most points, most tries, most clean breaks, 3rd most metres, 3rd most defenders beaten, 6th most offloads).
But every Brumbies win this season has come when they've held a team to fewer than three tries, and the Hurricanes haven't won this season with fewer than four. The average points conceded of the two teams is essentially the same (18), but the median (a fairer reflection) puts the Brumbies three points better in this regard (17 v 20). If the Brumbies put on an inspired defensive performance, and use their competition-leading set piece well, they could sneak something here. We've picked a brick wall of a backline, from 9 to 15, and have a forward pack full of workhorses. I expect to see Sio, Carter, Fardy, and Alcock everywhere, and the pace of Dargaville and Banks will be essential to deal with the Hurricanes when they eventually do make an opportunity behind the line.
However, if the Brumbies concede more than three tries, it's probably over; they've only scored more than 30 points three times this season, all of them against some of the worst defenders in the competition. Hoping for a 25-17 win. Expecting a 10-36 loss.