Brumbies 2020

[Braveheart81]

Within Japan, or somewhere else (e.g. Singapore)?

Would definitely not be in Japan. It is the Japanese government cancelling all professional sporting leagues in Japan for the next couple of weeks.

 

[RoffsChoice]

I'm just thinking that if they're able to relocate the game, they really should be swapping the Home/Away fixture. I get that if it's too much work and they have to cancel, then the end of season game in Canberra shouldn't be affected. But if they feel like they can move the game between countries with less than two weeks' notice, then they can rearrange a game at the tail end of the regular season, and it's fairer for the Sunwolves to still have their home game.

 

[Braveheart81]

I'm just thinking that if they're able to relocate the game, they really should be swapping the Home/Away fixture. I get that if it's too much work and they have to cancel, then the end of season game in Canberra shouldn't be affected. But if they feel like they can move the game between countries with less than two weeks' notice, then they can rearrange a game at the tail end of the regular season, and it's fairer for the Sunwolves to still have their home game.

There shouldn't be anything at Canberra Stadium that weekend as the NRL doesn't start for another week.

It was meant to be a Sunday game in Japan so could be a Sunday game in Canberra (there is already a Friday an Saturday night Australian home game that round). Saturday afternoon could also be possible to make it a triple header that day (Aus 3pm game, NZ 5pm, Aus 7pm).

I guess that would come down to the Brumbies being willing to accept that as a home game and give up their one later in the sesaon.

 

[Wilson]

There shouldn't be anything at Canberra Stadium that weekend as the NRL doesn't start for another week.

It was meant to be a Sunday game in Japan so could be a Sunday game in Canberra (there is already a Friday an Saturday night Australian home game that round). Saturday afternoon could also be possible to make it a triple header that day (Aus 3pm game, NZ 5pm, Aus 7pm).

I guess that would come down to the Brumbies being willing to accept that as a home game and give up their one later in the sesaon.

They'd have to prefer that to taking the draw from a competition perspective, they'd be targeting it as a 5 point game. Probably serves them better for crowd numbers as well, playing more home games before the NRL season gets under way and the chill sets in. Just a matter of making the call sooner rather than later to get it all ready.

 

[Slim 293]

SANZAAR now looking to relocate the Sunwolves game, instead of a straight up cancellation

In this case it makes sense............

If it were likely to be a one off I would understand them canceling, but as has been mentioned there’s a good chance other games will be affected.

 

[Brumby Jack]

There shouldn't be anything at Canberra Stadium that weekend as the NRL doesn't start for another week.

It was meant to be a Sunday game in Japan so could be a Sunday game in Canberra (there is already a Friday an Saturday night Australian home game that round). Saturday afternoon could also be possible to make it a triple header that day (Aus 3pm game, NZ 5pm, Aus 7pm).

I guess that would come down to the Brumbies being willing to accept that as a home game and give up their one later in the sesaon.

Stadium doing some things around that that time so not an option.

 

[Braveheart81]

Stadium doing some things around that that time so not an option.

Upgrading the food and beverage facilities to allow for the new plant based Four n' Twenty pies?

 

[Brumby Jack]

Nah, closer to the action.

 

[qwerty51]

Cancellation of the game could literally cost the Brumbies the title.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Cancellation of the game could literally cost the Brumbies the title.

Odds weren't that bad when we were talking about cancelling three games:

From a finals point of view, the Highlanders made the playoffs at 8th last year with the following record:​

• Six wins;
• Three draws;
• Seven losses;
• Two try BPs; and,
• Four losing BPs.

The Bulls finished 5th with the following record:​

​

• Eight wins;
• Two draws;
• Six losses;
• Three try BPs; and,
• Two losing BPs.

Most importantly, only five teams had a winning record last year, and all five made the playoffs.​

​

So if the Brumbies end up with three draws on their hands straight out of the gates, their remaining games are:​

​

1. Chiefs away;
2. Sunwolves away;
3. Waratahs home;
4. Blues away;
5. Reds away;
6. Hurricanes home;
7. Jaguares home;
8. Sharks away;
9. Bulls away;
10. Stormers home;
11. Rebels away;
12. Waratahs away; and,
13. Sunwolves home.

So, if you can imagine a world where the Brumbies win seven of those games (e.g. Sunwolves x2, Waratahs x2, Jaguares home, Stormers home, Rebels away), then you can imagine a world in which the Brumbies are competing for a home QF despite having three games cancelled.​

​

​

If you can imagine them winning nine of those games (e.g.Sunwolves x2, Waratahs x2, Blues away, Hurricanes home, Jaguares home, Stormers home, Rebels away), then you can imagine a world in which the Brumbies are fighting for 2nd place on the table.​

​

In short, as much as it would suck to have games cancelled, we live in a world where it's not unrealistic to still imagine the Brumbies hosting a QF despite it.​

​

​

Run the same numbers again. Now we can probably get away with winning seven on the following games and probably finishing 2nd or 3rd: Tahs home, Blues away, Reds away, Canes home, Jags home, Shorks away, Bulls away, Stormers home, Rebels away, Tahs away, Sunwolves home. AKA, win 60% of the remaining games and we're probably hosting a semi final.​

​

We'll be fine if they cancel this one.​

 

[qwerty51]

If they don't come 1st you don't win the title. Simple. Can't afford to drop 3 competition points.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Oh, sorry, I didn't realise the Blues won in 1998. Or the Reds won in 1999. Or the Brumbies won in 2000. Or the Sharks won in 2007. Or the Stormers won in 2012. Or the Hurricanes won in 2015. Or the Lions won in 2017. More fool me! Next you'll be saying you have to host the final to win it!

Sorry guys, don't bother holding the finals, first place has already won!

 

[qwerty51]

You really want to do this?

2017 - Lions were going to win if Kwagga didn't get a red card.
2015 - Same country, if Brumbies aren't #1, they're not playing the final in Australia are they?
2012 - Yes Stormers lost a semi because they're massive chokers and underachievers but the top NZ seed still won it with home advantage didn't they?

It's pretty clear coming #1 is almost vital to winning the comp. Or at least 2nd minimum. In fact only in 2015 & 1999 did a winner not come from the top 2 and both times were made easier by the final being held in NZ and won by the lower seed.

Yes, you can pretty much kiss your chances goodbye if you don't come #1 especially since the other contenders are the Stormers (just might be their time) and Crusaders.

 

[RoffsChoice]

Yeah, I'm willing to go into it.

I thoroughly reject the premise that it's such a done thing having home field advantage (though I definitely acknowledge that home field advantage is a real thing, and, since the home team in a final is by definition higher on the table, they're probably the better team anyway). We don't just see it in grand finals, but in finals matches in general: away teams win, "worse" teams win, and it's a bit of a shit comment to go "season is over because you didn't take five points from the Sunwolves and therefore can't possibly host the final".

I mean, even if we finish fourth, we could still live in a world where the Sharks somehow murder the Stormers, and the Reds pull off a vintage showing to beat the Crusaders, only for the Reds to lose to the Jaguares the following week, and then we're hosting a final from fourth place. Anything can happen in the clusterfuck that is the playoffs, but it's all over because we might not play the Sunwolves in Japan?

By that metric, haven't the Brumbies already lost the title by not beating the Highlanders a few weeks ago? Or by not taking the bonus points from the Reds and Rebels?

 

[qwerty51]

You comparing games where the result was hard to come by compared to the easiest 5 points of all time being reduced to 2 points - and something that is out of their hands.

 

[RoffsChoice]

The result is the same, fewer points. Would our season be over if we got a losing BP from the Chiefs and took five points from the Sunwolves? That's the same number of points on the table as beating the Chiefs and having the Sunwolves game cancelled.

 

[Brumby Jack]

Word is that the Brumbies v Sunwolves game will be as part of a double header with Waratahs v Chiefs in Wollongong. The Waratahs game is set for Friday the 6th

 

[qwerty51]

That’s interesting. Assume tickets would be for both matches - who gets the gate? Tahs keep it all or have to give some the Wolves?

 

[Brumby Jack]

That's for the new Waratahs CEO to sort out.

This will also allow a possibility for Gatland to hear the Brumbies team song, again...

 

[Tomikin]

I dont Care what a night of footy for the Gong... I know I cant make it, but it would be awesome to get as many fans there as possible and pump the gong with some positive rugby. I'll be tuning in if its the case to both games