Brisbane Premier Club - Team Rankings

[saulih]

Thought I would share the results of a few nights work, working out the rankings of the Brisbane premier grade teams. I started out trying to see if the winning games by the Sunshine Coast (on which my nephew plays) was having an impact on 'ranking' in the premier comp. So far it has impacted only slightly.

I have used the same formula used by the IRB for ranking international teams http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html (ie all teams start with 40 points, and exchange points based on game results). Home field advantage is applied, as is winning margin. Semi-finals and finals are treated as analogous to world cup games earning double points.

I used game results of regular season and finals from 2007 to now. These rankings/ratings could change if I can source game results from prior to 2007 and add them in... anyone help me out. The QRU site does not list them any further back.

So without further ado...

After Round 2 - 2010

1. GPS (45.53)
2. Brothers (45.38)
3. Souths (44.36)
4. Easts (41.60)
5. Sunnybank (40.81)
6. Gold Coast (39.10)
7. Norths (38.59)
8. University (38.12)
9. Sunshine Coast (37.22)
10. Wests (29.29)

I will be using this in the tipping comp, except for Sunny Coast games... can't tip against family you know. So we'll see how reliable it is. If I had it completed before last weeks round maybe I wouldn't have had the walk of shame!

Oh, and by the way thanks for this forum. It is a good read.

 

[RugbyReg]

gees, awesome work. Have to take that in a bit, but in the end I'm just happy to see GPS on top.

 

[saulih]

FYI - UPDATED this post - I goofed

end of regular season 2009 (round 18)

1. Brothers 45.35
2. Souths 45.17
3. Gold Coast 44.79
4. GPS 43.20
5. Easts 41.78
6. Sunnybank 39.09
7. Norths 38.89
8. University 38.14
9. Sunshine Coast 33.70
10. Wests 29.89

After Finals 2009

1. Brothers 48.07
2. Souths 44.92
3. Easts 43.21
4. GPS 43.20
5. Gold Coast 40.89
6. Sunnybank 39.09
7. Norths 38.89
8. University 38.14
9. Sunshine Coast 33.70
10. Wests 29.89

In rnd's 1/2 of this season, for GPS to win over two of the top 3 teams from last year, has pushed them into the lead.

 

[TOCC]

nice work man

 

[saulih]

After round 3 - 2010

1. (-) GPS 44.14
2. (-) Brothers 43.38
3. (5) Sunnybank 43.29
4. (3) Souths 41.87
5. (4) Easts 40.47
6. (8 ) University 40.12
7. (-) Norths 39.98
8. (6) Gold Coast 39.58
9. (-) Sunshine Coast 38.36
10. (-) Wests 28.81

University and Sunnybank were the improvers this round, both rising 2 ranking spots, while the Gold Coasts win against Wests was to be expected, it did nothing to improve its rankings. Sunshine Coasts win improved it's rating by 1.14 points, but that was not enough to drag itself up any further up the rankings.

The bottom half of the rankings are tightly bunched, and the coming weeks should show some shake-out if teams are able to show consistent wins.

 

[saulih]

Looking back at the ratings of teams since the start of 2008, the rating gap between 1st and 9th rank is the closest it has been since the start of the season in 2008. Only 5.78 rating points separate 1st and 9th, compared to an average gap between 1st and 9th for the 2008 to 2009 season of 13.73. Only 3.67 rating points separate 1st and 5th, a gap that has been narrowing since the start of season.

Anyone out there have access or know where I can find results from prior to 2007? I would plug them into the mix also if I had access to them. I am interested to see how much difference historical results effect ratings today (using this rating system). The IRB state that as game results get older they have less and less effect on the current results. Interesting to see if that holds true.

 

[saulih]

After Round 4 - 2010

1. (3) Sunnybank 43.66
2. (4) Souths 42.94
3. (6) University 42.67
4. (2) Brothers 42.39
5. (1) GPS 41.58
6. (5) Easts 41.46
7. (-) Norths 39.61
8. (-) Gold Coast 38.51
9. (-) Sunshine Coast 36.71
10. (-) Wests 30.47

Results after this weeks round has reshuffled the top half of the rankings, with the rising Sunnybank and University winning. The top six teams are rated all within 2.20 points of each other, hinting that this years competition is very tight.

 

[saulih]

After round 5 - 2010

1. (-) Sunnybank 44.40
2. (3) University 43.25
3. (4) Brothers 42.39
4. (2) Souths 41.62
5. (6) Easts 40.88
6. (5) GPS 40.85
7. (-) Norths 40.50
8. (9) Sunshine Coast 38.03
9. (8 ) Gold Coast 37.63
10. (-) Wests 30.47

Wins went to home ground teams this week, and four out of the five went as the ratings suggested, with only the Sunny Coasts win over Souths (yeah!) going against the suggested winner - using these ratings as a guide.

Sunnybank is continuing it's rise in ratings (+5.30) since season start.

University is the next best improver at +5.11.

Brothers first win of the season, had not effect to it's rating this week as the rating spread with Wests (11.92 points) exceeded the maximum spread (10 points) where points are exchanged.

The two coasts exchanged rankings, with their respective win/losses.

Prediction for round six using ratings as a guide:

Sunnybank beats Gold Coast
GPS beats Easts (allowing for the 3 rating points for home field advantage)
Norths to beat Sunny Coast (I disagree... but I am biased)
University thrash Wests (how many points start do you give them?)
Souths home ground advantage beats Brothers (just like GPS and Easts)

 

[saulih]

Rankings after round 6

1. (3) Brothers 44.22
2. (-) University 43.28
3. (1) Sunnybank 43.02
4. (5) Easts 42.82
5. (7) Norths 40.95
6. (4) Souths 39.79
7. (9) Gold Coast 39.00
8. (6) GPS 38.90
9. (8 ) Sunshine Coast 37.58
10. (-) Wests 30.43

The rankings predicted only correctly two of the five games this week, University bt Wests, and Norths bt Sunny Coast.

The big loss by GPS to Easts resulted in a continuation of their drop in rankings. Their rating points have slipped by 6.63 points, while their rank has slipped from (a narrow margin) first to eighth.

Souths loss to Brothers similarly continues a gradual drop from their early season high (2nd round) of 2nd ranked position (44.36), to 6th (a loss of 4.57 points). Brothers with their win regained pre season 1st ranked position, but their rating is far closer to the rest of the field than they started with - 44.22pts vs 48.07pts.

Round 7 prediction using the rankings/ratings:

Brothers bt Norths
Easts whip Wests
Sunnybank bt Sunshine Coast (this would be the SC first loss at home this season)
University bt Souths
Gold Coast bt GPS

 

[saulih]

Ratings Predictor since round 2 (mirroring the tipping comp at http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/forum/index.php/topic,10225.0.html )

Since this is just a way to gauge the usefulness of this ranking system for tipping the winner, I will ignore the Wests win margins as put up by Juan Cote...

Round 2 = 3/5
GPS bt Brothers (correct)
Souths bt Norths (correct)
Gold Coast bt Easts (incorrect)
Sunnybank bt Wests (correct)
Suncoast bt University (incorrect)

Round 3 = 1/5
Brothers bt Uni (incorrect)
Easts bt Suncoast (incorrect)
Gold Coast bt Wests (correct)
GPS bt Norths (incorrect)
Souths bt Sunnybank (incorrect)

Round 4 = 2/5
Easts 43.47 (40.47 + 3pts for home ground) bt Brothers 43.38 (could almost predict a draw) (correct)
Sunshine Coast bt Wests (incorrect)
GPS bt Uni (incorrect)
Gold Coast bt Souths (incorrect)
Sunnybank bt Norths (correct)

Round 5 = 4/5
Brothers bt Wests (correct)
Norths bt Gold Coast (correct)
Souths bt Suncoast (incorrect)
Uni bt Easts (correct)
Sunnybank bt GPS (correct)

Round 6 = 2/5
Sunnybank bt Gold Coast (incorrect)
GPS bt Easts (incorrect)
Norths bt Sunny Coast (correct)
University bt Wests (correct)
Souths bt Brothers (incorrect)

Since round 2 = 12/25 (48%)

What do we learn? Historical form is a poor indicator of future results! Well, to give this system (which is not my own) some leniency, the teams are closer this season in their ratings (except for Wests) than they have been since the numbers I started using began.

 

[saulih]

Rankings after round 7

1. (-) Brothers 44.59
2. (3) Sunnybank 43.78
3. (2) University 43.63
4. (-) Easts 42.82
5. (-) Norths 40.58
6. (7) Gold Coast 40.04
7. (6) Souths 39.44
8. (-) GPS 37.87
9. (-) Sunshine Coast 36.82
10. (-) Wests 30.43

Very little changed in rankings this week, as all wins fell as predicted by the rankings. Interestingly, Sunnybank's away win over the SC offered slightly more points exchange points than Uni's home win against Souths. This difference was enough for the two teams to exchange rankings (the two are in a virtual dead heat). This is especially quirky (in the ratings system) as the win margin for the Bank was only 3 points, while Uni's was 13 points (15 points is the required win margin for margin bonuses to kick in).

Ratings Predictor improved for this round with 5/5 in round 7 = 17/30 (56.6%) Round 6 was 12/25 (48%)

Prediction for round 8 (only four games since rd 8 match between GC and SC was played as part of country comp preseason)

Three close games are the prediction if home field means anything:
Uni wins a nail-biter at Norths home field (43.63/43.58 (+ 3 HG points))
Easts likewise win nail-biter at Souths home field (42.82/42.44 (+ 3 HG points))
Sunnybank home field overcomes the Filth (46.78 (+ 3 HG points)/44.59)
GPS win easily at home against Wests

 

[saulih]

Also note that the rating difference between 4th and 5th (2.24pts) is larger than 1st and 4th (1.77pts). The top four teams have broken away from the rest of the field, and appear to be the leading contenders for the competition.

Also, it will be interesting to see how the return of S14 players impact the strength of the teams. Will there be a shift?

 

[saulih]

Rankings after round 8

1. (-) Brothers 45.81
2. (3) University 45.12
3. (2) Sunnybank 42.56
4. (-) Easts 41.78
5. (7) Souths 40.47
6. (-) Gold Coast 40.04
7. (5) Norths 39.09
8. (-) GPS 37.87
9. (-) Sunshine Coast 36.82
10. (-) Wests 30.43

Brothers and Uni both stretched their lead in round 8, with both teams separating from the rest of the pack. The Ratings Predictor got 2/4. Season so far (since rnd 2) = 19/34 (55.9%)

Prediction for round 9

Four of the five games should go the way of home teams this week if the ratings predict accurately:

The Filth at home, dispose easily of the Gold Coast
Norths at home, edge out a close win over Easts
Sunny Coast at home, win over GPS
Uni at home, continues it's winning streak against Sunnybank
Wests at home? Well they lose to Souths.

 

[saulih]

Rankings after round 9

1. (-) Brothers 46.00
2. (-) University 44.29
3. (-) Sunnybank 43.39
4. (-) Easts 43.33
5. (-) Souths 40.77
6. (-) Gold Coast 39.85
7. (9) Sunshine Coast 38.03
8. (7) Norths 37.54
9. ( 8 ) GPS 36.66
10. (-) Wests 30.14

Brothers strengthened their ratings and are cementing their 1st place rank. The bottom of the rankings saw a few changes with mainly through the failure of Norths and GPS, who continue to slide in their ratings. Sunny Coast rose two ranking places from 9 to 7, but ratings have been fairly stable since the start of season having bounced backwards and forwards with the win loss pattern of their season.

The Ratings Predictor got 3/5. Season so far (since rnd 2) = 22/39 (56.4%)

Prediction for round 10

The Filth should avenge their early season loss to Suncoast
GPS will falter at home against Souths
Norths should dispose of Wests
Uni should win over Gold Coast
The match of the round for my pick will be the Bank against Easts. Sunnybank should win.

 

[saulih]

Sunshine Coast at seventh is their highest rank in the last three seasons. GPS at ninth has been their lowest rank for the same period.

 

[saulih]

Rankings after round 10

1. (-) Brothers 46.00
2. (-) University 45.15
3. (-) Sunnybank 44.43
4. (-) Easts 42.29
5. (-) Souths 42.10
6. (-) Gold Coast 39.00
7. (-) Sunshine Coast 38.03
8. (-) Norths 35.54
9. (-) GPS 35.33
10. (-) Wests 32.14

Rankings did not budge this week, with teams only improving their rating or making it worse. The Bank is closing the gap with Brothers, who continue to ride their high rating from last years season, Wests for the first time looks like it might have a chance of closing the gap with the ninth place holder, GPS and Norths are in a race to see can get down to meet Wests ratings. Norths ratings have plummeted from 40.95 after round six to 35.54. GPS have fallen just over 10 ratings points from their season high at 45.53 in round 2 to 35.33.

It seems as if the contenders for the seasons title have emerged from the clump we had back after round 3. The shakeout of the season has left the Filth, Uni and the Bank as the clear favorites (obviously reflected in the competition table as well).

The Ratings Predictor got 4/5 (only miss was the Dogs win over Norths). Season so far (since rnd 2) = 26/44 (59.1%)

Prediction for round 11
The Filth will tear apart GPS
Easts should beat the Breakers
SC beaten on their home turf by Uni
The Bank will stroll through a win at the Kennel
Souths to win continuing the plummet for Norths in these ratings

I think this might be a round for a couple upsets though. GC and SC will surely come out hungry after their respective losses last week. The low rating for SC belies the fact that a lot of their games have been close, and after dropping the game in the 2nd half last week, they may just be hungry enough to get one over the comp leaders. Watch for their arses to be tanned red from Kefu's whippings at training, after the loss at the Filth. GC likewise would love to make Easts continue to feel pain after their big loss this week. That is my sense anyway... we'll see.

 

[saulih]

Rankings after round 11

1. (2) University 46.03
2. (3) Sunnybank 44.54
3. (1) Brothers 44.00
4. (-) Easts 42.85
5. (-) Souths 42.15
6. (-) Gold Coast 38.44
7. (9) GPS 37.33
8. (7) Sunshine Coast 37.15
9. (8 ) Norths 35.50
10. (-) Wests 32.03

A little shuffling among the rankings this week, with the rankings matching the competition table for the top five teams. University for the first time this season, took the reigns at the top of the rankings, after their steady (and at times meteoritic rise) through the ranks. They had been ranked eighth after the first round. The loss by the filth to GPS, brought them back in line with the rankings (and comp table) with GPS leaping two ranking spots just ahead of the Sunny Coast.

The Ratings Predictor got 4/5 (only miss the upset by GPS over Brothers). Season so far (since rnd 2) = 30/49 (61.2%). Finally this rating system seems to have some legs to stand on.

Prediction for round 12 - everyone wins at home
Easts over Sunny Coast
GPS over Norths
University over Brothers
Gold Coast over Wests
Sunnybank over Souths

...and I'll stop using my gut to predict the winners... just going backwards that way.

 

[WESTCOMBE RANGER]

Saulih

Noted that you pin the Stingrays motif on your posts - Were you at the game last week ? If so any chance of a brief review - I ask because I have an interest from afar (England) in the UNI team.

 

[saulih]

No, I grew up on the coast, but now live in Seppo land, expat like you... keeping up with my nephew's rugby progress via the web. He plays LHP. I would appreciate any match reports as well.

 

[saulih]

Rankings after round 12

1. (-) University 46.53
2. (-) Sunnybank 45.00
3. (-) Brothers 43.50
4. (5) Souths 41.69
5. (4) Easts 40.98
6. (8 ) Sunshine Coast 39.02
7. (-) GPS 38.10
8. (6) Gold Coast 35.53
9. (10) Wests 34.94
10. (9) Norths 34.72

Well Wests has done it! they finally have crawled their way out of the dungeon and moved up the rankings. Granted it is only a half hair above Norths, but considering the depths they have been, they have made progress. They have been ranked tenth since the middle of May 2009. Sunny Coast have moved to sixth rank, their highest ranking ever; what a few wins will do! The Breakers are at risk of dropping even further, with only 3/4's of a rating point separating 8th and 10th.

The Ratings Predictor got 3/5. Season so far (since rnd 2) = 33/54 (61.11%).

Prediction for round 13 -
Brothers beat Easts
Bank trounce Norths
Stingrays avenge Wests first go round win.
A walk in the park for Uni over GPS
Souths beat Breakers.