Bledisloe 1 - Saturday 18 August 2018 - ANZ Stadium, Sydney

[Braveheart81]

Two weeks to go.

Let's talk about the Wallaby backline. I think the starting side is locked in.

9. Genia
10. Foley
11. Koroibete
12. Beale
13. Hodge
14. DHP
15. Folau

Can we play two backs on the bench? I don't think so without Hodge on the bench. Any injury would still involve Hodge being the utility and it is just too many reshuffles.

If 23 was To'omua, he covers 10 and 12, but Beale has to cover 15 and Folau 13/14. Hodge going down and having to move Folau to 13, Beale to 15 and To'omua to 12 is a reshuffle too far.

Likewise if Rona or Banks were in the 23 jersey you have just as big a reshuffle.

So let's assume we have 3 back reserves.

I think To'omua becomes very clearly the 22 option even if he looked horrendously rusty today. He covers 10 and 12.

23 on form should be Banks which means Folau is your backup 13.

The other option is Rona and he covers 13/14.

Given Banks' form and Rona's patchy end to the season I like the idea of Folau being the backup 13 and having Banks on the bench.

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[TSR]

Completely agree BH.

Partly because I think you pick for strategy first and foremost and just make sure you can cover injuries if you need to (ie I doubt Cheika will plan to move Folau to 13 but he can if he needs to) and partly because Rona’s form really did drop off at the end.

But mostly because I think Banks really looks the goods and I want to see him in Gold.

 

[Brumby Runner]

If Cheika goes with that bench, then I'd be surprised if he isn't trialling Banks or Koriobete, or DHP if fit, at 13 in the next fortnight just as options where he doesn't need to shift Folau, which apparently is his preferred ploy.

 

[Braveheart81]

If Cheika goes with that bench, then I'd be surprised if he isn't trialling Banks or Koriobete, or DHP if fit, at 13 in the next fortnight just as options where he doesn't need to shift Folau, which apparently is his preferred ploy.

Folau has actually played 13. In that scenario he has to be the backup.

I don't get how any of those three could be. As far as I know they've literally never played at 13.

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[dru]

This science of how the bench covers the starting team - is it actually how Cheika has approached the bench? I thought the bench was his "finishers".

I'm not disagreeing with your choices here, but it depends on what Cheika wants to do with the bench.

 

[Up the Guts]

At what point do we get to English being a contender rather than filling holes with utility players? Rona’s been around the camp but has he really been that much better than him these last few weeks (I also think Rona had it easy through the middle of the season playing weaker Super teams with Taqele creating space for him)? English would have to be ahead of Petaia as well. Yeah he’s a journeyman but he’s still pretty solid in attack and defence, if we get desperate I’d have him over guys with very little experience at 13.

 

[Braveheart81]

This science of how the bench covers the starting team - is it actually how Cheika has approached the bench? I thought the bench was his "finishers".

I'm not disagreeing with your choices here, but it depends on what Cheika wants to do with the bench.

It's both. He has to be able to cover every position in the case of an injury but you are picking for us much impact as possible.

If you were going conservative you would pick To'omua and Rona. To'omua covers 10/12 and Rona 13/14. No real shuffles required.

Banks is a more aggressive selection because you cover for 13 is playing 15 but you pick him to have a greater impact as a planned sub due to his excellent form.

A 2 back bench is the most aggressive option thinking you can get more impact from forward subs but I don't see how we can do it without risking massive disruption with Hodge starting.

If Cheika wanted to play a 6:2 bench I think he has to start Rona at 13 and keep Hodge on the bench. I don't think that will happen and Hodge will play 13.

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[cyclopath]

It's both. He has to be able to cover every position in the case of an injury but you are picking for us much impact as possible.

If you were going conservative you would pick To'omua and Rona. To'omua covers 10/12 and Rona 13/14. No real shuffles required.

Banks is a more aggressive selection because you cover for 13 is playing 15 but you pick him to have a greater impact as a planned sub due to his excellent form.

A 2 back bench is the most aggressive option thinking you can get more impact from forward subs but I don't see how we can do it without risking massive disruption with Hodge starting.

If Cheika wanted to play a 6:2 bench I think he has to start Rona at 13 and keep Hodge on the bench. I don't think that will happen and Hodge will play 13.

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I agree with your logic and wait for someone to nominate Koroibete as the 13 cover!

 

[Tomikin]

I agree with your logic and wait for someone to nominate Koroibete as the 13 cover!

Narr Hoopers 13 cover he plays out there anyway ..

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[swingpass]

Wallabies

 

[Rugbynutter39]

Didn't Billy Meakes play 13 for Gloucester - as for me he would possibly be a dark horse for 13. Perhaps a bench spot dark horse as thought he played pretty well in trial match.

 

[Braveheart81]

I posted about the backline the other day. Now for the forwards.

I think there are very few positions up in the air here:

1. Sio
2. TPN
3. Kepu/Tupou
4. Coleman
5. Rodda/Arnold
6. Tui
7. Hooper (c)
8. Pocock

16. Latu/BPA/Fainga'a
17. Robertson
18. Tupou/Kepu
19. Simmons
20. Samu/Timu

The reserve hooker spot in the most closely contested. Latu seems like the frontrunner and BPA will be very lucky to make it with Fainga'a finishing the season in outstanding form.

Tupou is making a good argument to start at THP but I tend to hink Kepu will remain there for now.

I see Rodda and Arnold as fighting it out for a starting lock spot. The loser of that won't make the 23.

Hooper obviously needs to prove his fitness but if he's good to go in a week he'll be picked for the Bledisloe.

Samu and Timu look to be contesting the backrow bench spot.

I can't see us selecting a 6 forward bench.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Timu was very strong in the second half on Friday. That sort of form really should have him in the No 8 Wallaby jersey.

 

[Braveheart81]

Timu was very strong in the second half on Friday. That sort of form really should have him in the No 8 Wallaby jersey.

Except that Tui completely outplayed him in the start he got in the June series.

Pocock in consistently excellent.

Hooper has been out injured and is the captain and isn't going to lose his spot because a two test player had a good half in a warm up game.

 

[Joe Blow]

Tui looked very sharp too. Timu was shown to be ineffective against the Irish. Test footy is a different speed.

 

[TSR]

He’s played 2 tests. One of which he picked up an injury early on. The other of which he played fine in - not oustanding, but nor was he bad. Maybe let’s not rule a line through his ability at Test Rugby just yet.

 

[cyclopath]

This is not directed at any one poster in particular, but I find these binary arguments about players odd - this guy was crap (once), this was great (once), this guy has to be in etc............ It's not always 0 or 1.
The ideal is that we, like the All Blacks, end up with good players missing out. Timu and Tui will likely both play plenty of Tests. It's nice that we seem to be having this problem of fitting locks and back-rowers into a team instead of clutching at straws.

 

[Up the Guts]

Unfortunately for Arnold his ball security in the trial wasn't quite as good as it had been during Super and it might just edge him out.

 

[Joe Blow]

He’s played 2 tests. One of which he picked up an injury early on. The other of which he played fine in - not oustanding, but nor was he bad. Maybe let’s not rule a line through his ability at Test Rugby just yet.

Yes. It is early days for Timu but it will not get any easier against the All Blacks. He looked out of place in both Irish tests. He once again looked pretty good in the trial last week but I would suggest that he is not the answer in the back row to compliment the Pooper and that the trial was nowhere near test intensity.
He will most likely improve with more test time but it will not happen overnight.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Sounds like a bit of Catch 22 there JB. Timu is not the answer to complement the Pooper but will improve with more test time. Do you see him getting time off the bench?

BTW I'm sure he is quite capable of telling Hooper and Pocock just how good they've played.