Bledisloe #1 - AUS v NZL, ANZ Stadium, Sydney, August 8th

[Braveheart81]

Smh suggested Mitchell could be on the other wing to AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper). Would certainly be a bit of a surprise to me.

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[KOB1987]

Everyone could be getting a bit ahead of themselves too. If anyone is going for a peep today I reckon they'll see the lineup


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[Joeleee]

Resting helps by pushing the time to failure further back in time. We don't know his shoulder will catastrophically fail during the games leading up to and including the RWC final, but by having him play fewer games, we reduce the risk of it doing so.

I'm not a doctor, so obviously take whatever I say with a pretty large pinch of salt. However, I had hip problems a few years back that required surgery, that appeared just before my season started (not rugby). The physio basically said I won't be doing any further damage by playing on it, it's just a matter of dealing with the pain, so we could delay the surgery until the off season. I wasn't 100% for the season, but was able to play on it with no real risk of further injury, so I wouldn't be surprised if Slipper is similar. That is, surgery is required, but no amount of rest will help with recovery/create a higher risk of injury, so there's no real upside to missing games.

 

[Langthorne]

I don't think we have much of a choice but to do just that. As DD has said above, it's too late now to contemplate any other options.

Having said that, I do think that it is unfair to put the responsibility of teaching how to kick on the Wallaby coaching set-up. Sure, we need to have someone who can review and finesse, but you would hope that a kicker would have a bit of a clue before he got to pull on a Gold jersey. The work needs to be done by the bloke with the boot, and he needs to know that and not wait to be told to train.

I am reminded somewhat of our old nemesis J. Wilkinson, and how he was at training 2 hours early and still there 2 hours afterwards every day, just banging them over like a metronome.

The adage of "practice makes perfect" may apply here. I don't know how many hours a day our specialist kickers practice, but from recent results, I'd suggest they ring their old club coach to meet them down at the local oval and double their workload.

I agree that our kickers may need to put in more time, but practice does not necessarily make perfect. It does tend to make permanent, hence the need for practice to be guided, at least to some extent, by an expert instructor.

 

[fatprop]

I reckon its game on for Kane Douglas and Sam Carter. My gut tells me at least one of Horwill / Mumm is going to get shown up badly on Saturday, possibly both.

I really question whether Horwill can play 80 minutes effectively. He usually has about 25-30 minutes of quality rugby in him these days.

I don't see Douglas or Carter fairing any better really.

But to me it will be how "lock" time is budgeted and how effectively the ABs nullify Skelton's go forward.

 

[boyo]

Wasn't Chris Malone the goal-kicker at the Not-Nots, etc.?

 

[BDA]

Well Carter faired pretty well in his last game against the All Blacks.

Im not sure Horwill is a starter at this stage of his career. He's 40-50 minutes of quality test rugby TOPS. Likewise I don't think Skelton will go the distance.

Mumm is still a complete unknown. I re-watched the ARG game and apart from his very impressive try down the sideline, he didn't get involved in much of the tight work and certainly didn't make any big hits. It's possible he'll be invisible against the All Blacks. He certainly was during his previous test tenure. I really hope that's not the case. Also it remains to be seen whether our scrum will fall apart with Mumm packing at lock.

 

[FrankLind]

Rumor mill suggests this will be the backline

Smith
Carter
Savea
SBW
Smith
Milner-Skudder
Smith

Can't go wrong with three Smiths and the Skudder-stutter.

 

[ACR]

So long as there is a Smith at 15, doesn't matter about the rest.

Would be nice to see the stutter on the wing.

 

[Dismal Pillock]

all may have a wee bit to prove too

Smith: not flash vs boks, red head when chucking that daft panicked tapkick into Conrad's chest on the bok 5.
Carter: to prove he doesnt break down every 3rd game
Savea: barely fired a shot since Canes reg season?
SBW: wandering around like a giant baby all season.
Smith: half asleep vs the bokkes
Milner-Skudder: All Black debut.
Smith: Dagg has a 10 centrimetre longer punt? Who gives a shit when he misses 87.3 tackles a game

 

[zer0]

Rumor mill suggests this will be the backline

Smith
Carter
Savea
SBW
Smith
Milner-Skudder
Smith

The rest can be a blatant lie, but I just want this one to be true.

If he plays, I'm also very interested to see how Milner-Skudder goes. I always preferred him to Naholo, for two reasons. First, I believe he's more secure under the high ball than Naholo; second, and offers something different from Savea, which Naholo doesn't. In other words, a wing pairing of Savea/Naholo would reek of 2009 Sivivatu/Rokocoko. Do not want.

 

[boyo]

Is like the Captain's run?

Or a captain's pick?

 

[Viking]

Rumor mill suggests this will be the backline

Smith
Carter
Savea
SBW
Smith
Milner-Skudder
Smith

Can't go wrong with three Smiths and the Skudder-stutter.

Crazy, I actually think Carter is the weak link in that backline!

 

[Floggn']

Anyone who thinks Slipper isn't still our best loosehead needs to go back and look at the last tests scrums in slowmo. This talk of his poor form is bullshit.

I agree. The Wallabies are playing a square scrum with man looking after man in the front row. Slipper wasn't the issue in those scrums Moore was and I reckong if you ask Squeak about it he would put his hand up and agree.

 

[Groucho]

I'm not a doctor, so obviously take whatever I say with a pretty large pinch of salt. However, I had hip problems a few years back that required surgery, that appeared just before my season started (not rugby). The physio basically said I won't be doing any further damage by playing on it, it's just a matter of dealing with the pain, so we could delay the surgery until the off season. I wasn't 100% for the season, but was able to play on it with no real risk of further injury, so I wouldn't be surprised if Slipper is similar. That is, surgery is required, but no amount of rest will help with recovery/create a higher risk of injury, so there's no real upside to missing games.

It depends on the injury. I 'managed' an ankle injury and suffered a complete seperation, which stopped me playing running sports. :-(

 

[Groucho]

[snip] practice does not necessarily make perfect. It does tend to make permanent [/snip]

Excellent point.

 

[Groucho]

Well Carter faired pretty well in his last game against the All Blacks.

Im not sure Horwill is a starter at this stage of his career. He's 40-50 minutes of quality test rugby TOPS. Likewise I don't think Skelton will go the distance.

Mumm is still a complete unknown. I re-watched the ARG game and apart from his very impressive try down the sideline, he didn't get involved in much of the tight work and certainly didn't make any big hits. It's possible he'll be invisible against the All Blacks. He certainly was during his previous test tenure. I really hope that's not the case. Also it remains to be seen whether our scrum will fall apart with Mumm packing at lock.

Invisible. Precisely how workrate locks should be. At the end of the game we should all wonder who the muddy one is.

 

[Hawko]

Rumor mill suggests this will be the backline

Smith
Carter
Savea
SBW
Smith
Milner-Skudder
Smith

Can't go wrong with three Smiths and the Skudder-stutter.

From what we've seen this season, that's the best backline in the world bar Nonu. Hard to imagine even a rest of the world backline that would beat it.

 

[chasmac]

I've been thinking about the AB's gameplan and how it will change depending on who the Wallabies select.
The key to this game is the AB's kicking strategy.
If we select a forward pack with only 2 proper jumpers and a part time jumper then they will play the territory game. Dan Carter and Ben Smith / Dagg to kick for territory and to the corners or sideline. If Foley is selected, his lack of kicking range will also help them in their territory gameplan. Our back three are not great kickers (IF is reasonable when he gets lots of time. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) reasonable. Mitchell fairly good. The rest are scarily bad.)
The highlanders trapped the waratahs in the S15 semi final with their field position and constant pressure gameplan. This will be the blueprint IMO.
The AB's will back themselves in both the scrum and lineout; Wallabies seem to be improving in scrums but I'm not yet convinced we have come far enough.
Strangely, I see QC (Quade Cooper) as a better option for the 5/8 job as his out of hand kicking is good. He should be practicing his bomb diffusing skills (and tackling ) this week and put on notice about playing too deep. To'omua needs more time so I would pick Lilo as a straightener at 12.
Wingers unchanged from last week.

AB posession strategy at the breakdown depends on Pocock or Hooper;
1) Pocock; Run at him so that he is the tackler and cannot be second man in.
2) Hooper; Run in behind him. His rush defense creates opportunities and space if you can get the runners to exploit it.
3) Pooper; Play for set pieces; Scrums and lineouts all day. Kick the ball out, play the territory game. Score in 3's.

AB defense strategy; Same as usual, attacking defense focussing on creating a mistake from the Wallabies. Numbers in the breakdown to be assessed as the game evolves. Work hard to stay in position and maintain the line.

 

[zer0]

From what we've seen this season, that's the best backline in the world bar Nonu. Hard to imagine even a rest of the world backline that would beat it.

Not quite. You'd also have to swap out Milner-Skudder for Piutau to get the top backline.

Our back three are not great kickers (IF is reasonable when he gets lots of time. AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) reasonable. Mitchell fairly good. The rest are scarily bad.)
The highlanders trapped the waratahs in the S15 semi final with their field position and constant pressure gameplan. This will be the blueprint IMO.
The AB's will back themselves in both the scrum and lineout; Wallabies seem to be improving in scrums but I'm not yet convinced we have come far enough.
Strangely, I see QC (Quade Cooper) as a better option for the 5/8 job as his out of hand kicking is good. He should be practicing his bomb diffusing skills (and tackling ) this week and put on notice about playing too deep. To'omua needs more time so I would pick Lilo as a straightener at 12.
Wingers unchanged from last week.

The Waratah's also greatly suffered for their lack of a left-footed kicking option. Are there any in the Wallabies squad? I genuinely don't know.

But I agree about the AB kicking tactics. A.Smith was of course involved in that Highlanders match, so can definitely deliver. Carter is a better overall kicker than Sopoaga, but I can't recall what his short kicking game is like. Regardless, I'm sure he can do a decent enough job. B.Smith doesn't have Dagg's siege gun boot, but can still belt it a fair way. Conditions being equal, he and Carter should win most of the kicking duels.