I just think RA want enough full time professional players going around each year to make a "competitive" Wallabies team.
They were hoping for years there was enough revenue in the Australian Rugby ecosystem for ~160 players, but it seems more likely that the number is something like 100 to 120.
The next question is then how do you find good enough competition for 120 pro rugby players?
But even the 120 version is bleeding the bank account and still has key players going O/S and not sufficient pathways. It won't produce the level of competition to develop International standard players. It's also not doing anything for the game beyond propping it up short term to see out TV deals as we don't know what else to do, and lacking the intestinal fortitude to do what needs to be done.
Much of it is poor decisions after poor decisions. We can bang on about player numbers, but we get different performances from coach to coach with that some group of players. Right there may be an indicator that it's not just a player base issue. When you think of things like that lack of basic skills many of our players are struggling with, you don't have to look far to realise that those who have lacked those skills have or are now are now coaching. Yes, that's changing a little now, but its still very present. We (as a sport) are consciously making those decisions that are holding us back as we are so resistant to change. Look at the management. Nothing or nobody from the outside ever gets in. Its ridiculously incestuious but we expect it be churning out purebreds.
I think the problem is the game, system, set up and unwillingness to concede it all needs to binned, reimagined and reformed - top to bottom, from clubland to pro's and national levels. Its an unsavory thought and will upset many but what else is there? This continuing insanity?
We have had this same conversation for years. 3 teams, 4 teams, 5 teams, With the SARU, without SA, with Japan and Argentina, without them, Pacific nations....what's next? It doesn't matter what you add to this concoction it unpalatable and unpopular, and most of all, it's poor financial investment. For whatever reason, post 1996 the decisions have hurt the TV rights and market and its been in decline. All parties have lost more than we have gained. Surely that's a good clue this is never going to work?
At the heart of this domestically, let's be honest, the current union set-up and governance does not work. We have added teams, subtracted teams and so far the only one that has traded out of issue was outside of RA's control which should be a clear message to the everyone. Even that took external help and is still supported from outside of RA. We ran a domestic comp as we had no choice and the ratings went up. So what did we do? Ignore that increase and opportunity.
With the level of business acumen in the game, it probably goes a long ways to explain why the "fund" never got far. I believe it raised about 12% of its target? Would you invest your money?
The Reds after a lot of work to restructure their model over time, and with a huge market, are the only ones that are scraping through. If they are the benchmark we are in trouble as no other franchise has their footprint, market or the funds available to them that they have.
Less does not pay the bills so 120 will not generate the revenue. Less TV reduces both audience and sponsors / advertising revenue. So the extra TV dollars offered by Stan in this deal is like compensation for the loss of sponsors dollars. It's not extra revenue from the Stan deal in reality. So I think when we are all honest and would be willing to put our own money at risk we might be close to something worth keeping alive. But this, this mess we have is costing more than its worth IMHO, and that's money wasted on egos and power.
The harsh reality is without the Lions and WC, the game is dead in the water today. It's already trading on future income to keep itself alive.
{EDIT} - I often wonder is Union actually has an identity crisis. Without the the ongoing rhetoric about it future, management, RA board press opportunities, Wallabies etc etc, when you get to the actual games, there is very little to talk about or talked about. It probably why its not looked at in the same light as other sports. It like the F1 reality drama "drive to survive" that many prefer to watch over the actual races sadly.
