Australia vs British and Irish Lions - 1st Test (Brisbane)

[Scotty]

If the Wallabies can get their set piece in order they'll win the series 3-0. The Lions probable test back line still look uninspired with ball in hand, and given they'll be carrying St Sam and Lydiate for this one the Wallabies have to be favourites. The Lions main chances of scoring will be from set pieces so take that away and they look blunt.

The Australian back line is far more talented but I think their under rated forward pack (by the Lions) will win them the series. The invention of the backs will just decide if it will be embarrassing or not. Right now I can see the Wallabies winning the first test comfortably, then the Lions making 4 or 5 changes to their forward pack and losing the next 2 by a score.

You really think our backline is that good?

I'd have Sexton, Roberts, BOD and North in my combined backline. Possibly Halfpenny as well.

The Lions backs have form and or experience. Most of our guys have one or the other at the moment - Folau, Horne (no experience at 12 international), JOC (James O'Connor) (not much experience at 10), Barnes (coming back from injury), Beale (nuf said), Lilo (no experience), Ioane (injury), McCabe (injury and different positions), Tomane.

It will be a miracle if our backline gels in the first test and everyone plays to their best form!

It will be a miracle I

 

[No4918]

If the Wallabies can get their set piece in order they'll win the series 3-0. The Lions probable test back line still look uninspired with ball in hand, and given they'll be carrying St Sam and Lydiate for this one the Wallabies have to be favourites. The Lions main chances of scoring will be from set pieces so take that away and they look blunt.

The Australian back line is far more talented but I think their under rated forward pack (by the Lions) will win them the series. The invention of the backs will just decide if it will be embarrassing or not. Right now I can see the Wallabies winning the first test comfortably, then the Lions making 4 or 5 changes to their forward pack and losing the next 2 by a score.

Good try, not buying it.

 

[JSRF10]

Composite backline probably only Sexton gets in it for me. I think you're over estimating a lot of the Lions players talents and skill levels. Lets not forget most of these players are coming off terrible international seasons. Wales won the 6 nations because they weren't the worst of an awful bunch. This is the weakest Lions touring party in a long time, although I'd also say its probably the weakest team they'll play against in a long time.

Roberts is one dimensional and can be easily stopped, Wales attacking play was shocking for the most part of the 6 nations and all the November internationals. If you stop Roberts behind the gain line you've gone a long way to stopping the Lions attacking structures. Added to that the Lions, and all 4 home nations teams, play very structured games and can't seem to think on their feet under pressure, they'll just keep playing to the script hoping that something changes. North is fantastic going forward at times but is suspect on the back foot and I still am not convinced he can turn the tide in a game. BOD has had a very up and down season, he has had some really good highlight reel moments but has had some shockers as well. He'll lead the defensive line well but he can be exposed if the Hooper et al get on top at the breakdown.

As I said if the Wobs can match the Lions set piece, given the big advantage they'll have in the back row assuming Gatland sticks with the Welsh trio, they'll win. The Lions don't have any game breakers in the their backline to turn the tide of their back row getting beaten up and a set piece stalemate. In fact they lost their only one on Saturday night. If Gatland goes against what he knows and picks on form I may change my prediction but how I'm reading the team selections so far doesn't fill me with confidence.

 

[Scotty]

That wo

As I said if the Wobs can match the Lions set piece, given the big advantage they'll have in the back row assuming Gatland sticks with the Welsh trio, they'll win. The Lions don't have any game breakers in the their backline to turn the tide of their back row getting beaten up and a set piece stalemate. In fact they lost their only one on Saturday night. If Gatland goes against what he knows and picks on form I may change my prediction but how I'm reading the team selections so far doesn't fill me with confidence.

That could be said for both teams. At least your guys are likely to have experience in their positions if not form. We could go with this:

9 Genia (no problem)
10 JOC (James O'Connor) (a handful of games at 10 at provincial level, 1 at test level - not a first choice 10 for his club)
11 Ioane or Cummins (either just coming back from injury or just coming back from injury)
12 Horne (no tests at 12, one season of super rugby at 12)
13 AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) (no problem)
14 Folau (never played a rugby game at wing)
15 Barnes (limited rugby his year due to injury)

Our guys have plenty of talent (if they are played in their correct positions), but we are severely under prepared outside of positions 9 and 13.

 

[Braveheart81]

I'm not convinced Barnes is going to be in the starting XV anymore. I think Folau or Beale will play fullback. Personally I think it will be Beale but I hope it will be Folau.

Personally I'd pick Beale at 10 and JOC (James O'Connor) at 14. I think it gives the backline better shape.

My backline would be:

Genia
Beale
Ioane/Cummins
Horne
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
JOC (James O'Connor)
Folau

Bench: Phipps, Barnes, Tomane

 

[Ghibli]

Quite a chance Dean may scupper all expectations and start McCabe.
Cat among the pidgeons, that would be.

 

[Scotty]

I'm not convinced Barnes is going to be in the starting XV anymore. I think Folau or Beale will play fullback. Personally I think it will be Beale but I hope it will be Folau.

Personally I'd pick Beale at 10 and JOC (James O'Connor) at 14. I think it gives the backline better shape.

My backline would be:

Genia
Beale
Ioane/Cummins
Horne
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
JOC (James O'Connor)
Folau

Bench: Phipps, Barnes, Tomane

I agree both with what you expect and what you select. It is a shame that Lilo hasn't got test experience though - with Folau at 15 we lack a second ball distributer.

 

[Dan54]

Geez JSRF where you getting your markers from if only Sexton would make combined team?? Surely North would bolt in and probably BOD. While I agree I don't hold a hell of a high opinion of Roberts, I think apart from Genia I not really seeing any Wallabies that I would really see 'guaranteed' a spot.

 

[Braveheart81]

Geez JSRF where you getting your markers from if only Sexton would make combined team?? Surely North would bolt in and probably BOD. While I agree I don't hold a hell of a high opinion of Roberts, I think apart from Genia I not really seeing any Wallabies that I would really see 'guaranteed' a spot.

Both camps are desperately trying to secure underdog status.

"Our players are crap."
"Our players are crapper."
"No... our players are the crappest players of all time."

 

[JSRF10]

Geez JSRF where you getting your markers from if only Sexton would make combined team?? Surely North would bolt in and probably BOD. While I agree I don't hold a hell of a high opinion of Roberts, I think apart from Genia I not really seeing any Wallabies that I would really see 'guaranteed' a spot.

That was in the backs, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and BOD are at similar levels these days. BOD is liable to get caught out on occasions defensively this season, and as I said he has had his most inconsistent season ever. Although BOD has better hands AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) offers more in attack and is probably a better tackler these days. BOD is a far better defensive captain. Splitting hairs but I'll change my mind and take BOD.

North is going to be a superstar, he isn't there yet. Ioane is the best winger in the world don't think its too surprising he is ahead at the moment.

FWIW I'd have Healy (if fit) Adam Jones, POC and SOB (at 6) in composite 15. Wallabies have an advantage over Lions at 1,2, 7, 8, 9, 15, 14, 11 (if Digby is fit). Advantage Lions at 3, 5, 10. Even-ish everywhere else for me. The Lions have only won 2 tests from their last 9 for a reason, given Gatland looks like he won't select the best team on form I don't think it is too outrageous to put the Wallabies as favorites. However I will reserve the right to change my prediction if Gatland surprises in the first test team announcement.

 

[Zander]

Adam Ashley-Cooper is a better player than Brian O'Driscoll at the moment. His defensive reads and dominant tackling are up there with Conrad Smith.

 

[ACT Crusader]

That was in the backs, AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) and BOD are at similar levels these days. BOD is liable to get caught out on occasions defensively this season, and as I said he has had his most inconsistent season ever. Although BOD has better hands AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper) offers more in attack and is probably a better tackler these days. BOD is a far better defensive captain. Splitting hairs but I'll change my mind and take BOD.

North is going to be a superstar, he isn't there yet. Ioane is the best winger in the world don't think its too surprising he is ahead at the moment.

FWIW I'd have Healy (if fit) Adam Jones, POC and SOB (at 6) in composite 15. Wallabies have an advantage over Lions at 1,2, 7, 8, 9, 15, 14, 11 (if Digby is fit). Advantage Lions at 3, 5, 10. Even-ish everywhere else for me. The Lions have only won 2 tests from their last 9 for a reason, given Gatland looks like he won't select the best team on form I don't think it is too outrageous to put the Wallabies as favorites. However I will reserve the right to change my prediction if Gatland surprises in the first test team announcement.

Ioane, best winger? If taking a high ball and actually passing to your fullback coming into the line is no longer required on the wing, maybe.

 

[Dan54]

I agree ACT, not sure Ioane is even best winger in Oz these days!!!

 

[Athilnaur]

Qwerty has a point to an extent, Deans isn't the first coach to pull in and tighten up play in an attempt to get particular fundamentals right before building up again.

It is what Link did at both the Reds and the Tahs (different fundamentals each time) , and what Cheks is currently doing

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

This. But if true then the expectation is that this year Deans will bring back into the mix some more adventurous play. He has the personnel and frankly I think he would be mad not to for all the reasons others have tabled, including the need in Aussie for rugby to be exciting and open.

What I have seen from the Lions so far tells me we can't rely on tiring them out. We can't rely on them being useless on attack. They have genuine threats across the park and are looking bloody dangerous.

 

[Scotty]

Thought I might try this post in the more correct thread. (A follow on from the known knowns and known unknowns post).

From this we only have two obvious picks for the starting lineup:

9 Genia
13 AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)

We have 2 guys that haven't played test rugby:
Folau, Lilo

Then we have 5 guys that might not be up for 80 minutes of test rugby:
Cummins, Ioane, Barnes, Beale, McCabe

Plus another two players who haven't had much or any test experience in the position they appear to have been picked for:
JOC (James O'Connor), Horne

So, what do we do? Well for one I can't see how McCabe can be picked in the starting lineup, as he has two negative known knowns, plus we don't even know much about his form at 12. We also can't afford to risk too many of the recently injured players (known knowns), and we must play with a 3 man backs bench. Because of this may have to risk some 'untried' players and players out of position (known unknowns).

What I would do/risk:

9 Genia
10 JOC (James O'Connor) (out of position risk) - least risky 10 option due to being able to play 80 and his ability to raise his game at test level
11 Ioane (fitness risk) - seems to be a big risk, but normally hits the ground running and has form this year. Other candidates don't.
12 Lilo (experience risk) - from a individual risk point of view, Horne would be the better option, but Lilo gives more support to JOC (James O'Connor) in his playmaking role and is just as good in defense.
13 AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14 Cummins (fitness risk) - I understand his fitness risk is low, and the other options are limited.
15 Folau (experience risk) - low experience risk since he has played at the highest level in league

21 Phipps (cover 9 and wing at a pinch)
22 McCabe (cover 12, 13, wing)
23 Beale (cover 10 and 15)

 

[fatprop]

Digby gone, I guess Folau, Morahan or McCabe to start on one wing with Cummins on the other.

 

[Pfitzy]

One of the Welsh blokes saying they're training harder than a Test match.

Well your last test against England wasn't much more than a training run boyo...

-----------------------
I hate autocorrect ...

 

[Athilnaur]

Folau has been a starter for weeks if not months in Deans mind I reckon.

 

[JSRF10]

Folau deserves to be picked, he has been the outstanding fullback in the Super Rugby competition this year. That's surely one Deans selection that can't be argued with!

 

[Braveheart81]

Given Ioane and Tomane are out combined with the fact that Beale has been doing plenty of training at 10 with the Wallabies, I'd love to see Beale moved to 10 and JOC (James O'Connor) moved back to the wing.

My backline would be:

Genia
Beale
Cummins
Horne/Lealiifano (don't really mind)
AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
JOC (James O'Connor)
Folau

Phipps, Barnes, McCabe.

Given that the likely alternative is playing Folau on the wing, Beale at fullback and JOC (James O'Connor) at 10, I'd much prefer the backline above.