Australia v. France 10 Nov 2012 Stade de France, Paris

[Lee Grant]

The most likely scenario is the French to play well and the Wallabies to play poorly and still win.

Please Note: The definition of "play poorly" in this sentence refers to lack of attacking flair, not commitment and defence.

To be fair: without JOC (James O'Connor), QC (Quade Cooper), Genia, and a fit Ioane and Mitchell, the Wobs don't have players with attacking flair, Beale excepted.

It would be barking dog madness to embark on a flair kind of game with the players they have, and one hopes that KB (Kurtley Beale) doesn't try to compensate by overplaying his hand with half-breaks followed by miracle passes.

Sure they should put on some set plays from set pieces like the one they did in Rosario; they didn't even need somebody like Ioane for that one, and put on some dominant tackles and counter rucks - and all the good stuff up front that creates chances even for non-flair players.

That requires the set pieces to be righteously done, and the near-set pieces of mauls and restarts too. Thus flair or quasi-flair behind can be provoked by forwards upfront.

And it requires little flair to have players backing up on either side of KB (Kurtley Beale), and him running square threatening the pass. Thus his flair can be leveraged.

Then Aussie Mike should keep chipping away at the scoreboard and yarda, yarda.

This is the kind of team we have at the minute on tour and no amount of words on a rugby forum is going to change it.

The France coach will know all of this but there will be one Aussie back he won't be sure about: Ben Tapuai, and there's a few of us here that will wonder about him too. He may be on the cusp of something, just.


Rather than expecting flair from non-flair players we may have to be content to restrict flair from theirs. Their wingers Fofana (a Clermont centre these days but brilliant on the wing for them in the past) and Clerc, could get past our guys in an elevator if they get too many chances at it.

Luckily their midfield is more prosaic, though Mermoz can have his moments on a good day. But flyhalf Michalak is bound to cut them out with kick passes a few times anyway, and they will be in the general direction of Cummins.

But I digress.
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[Lee Grant]

I see that Yohann Maestri has pulled out of the test match with lumbago and that Joselino Suta, who was originally named on the bench, will take his place.

This is a bit like England losing Courtney Lawes: not good. Instead of a 24 y.o. 201cm 120kg athletic, genuine 2nd rower who has started in all tests for France this year but one when he was a reserve on debut, they get a 29 y.o. 195cms 112 kg debutant who was covering 6 and lock.

Not a good swap.
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[qwerty51]

for the punters out there you can get +5 and 2.75 for Australia

free money

 

[Jnor]

Just put a bet on qwerty - I'll invoice you if we lose.

CARN WALLABIES!

 

[Lee Grant]

I can see why the Wobs are not favoured to win by the bookies with all their injuries, or players coming back from them.

One consideration would be the weather in Paris and how Oz performed against a bunch of just honest Scotland players in June, the last time they played in the rain - like babes in the woods.

I don't think much credit has been given to the Wallabies ability to grind out a win with a depleted side - or a draw in the case of the Kiwis. Instead they are probably factoring in that the Wobs are just hanging on after having to survive in three games against Wales, two against Argentina, one against the Boks, and one against NZ.

After the longest season on record because of the TRC, our guys can't wait to get back on the plane.

That's not me talking about the Wallabies; just me talking about what the gamblers may be thinking.

In my opinion they are over-estimating the merit of the France side They have good props and a no. 8 in world class form, but Dusautoir is crocked and Bonnaire is no longer around. Instead they have two work engine flankers, maybe to counter Hooper, but they won't bend anything.

They don't have hooker Servat any more and you wouldn't want his long-time apprentice, Szarzweski, in your pub darts team. Pape is a good old boy lock but they have lost their rising 2nd row star Maestri to lumbago.

I have talked about the backs in other posts. Their wingers are dynamite and so can flyhalf Michalak be on his day. The centres are old stagers but the scrummie and fullback are practically brand new.

I think their view and my view will tend to cancel each other out and that France may deserve the favouritism just because of the rain and home advantage factors.
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[troxler]

Just put a bet on qwerty - I'll invoice you if we lose.

CARN WALLABIES!

We aint gonna lose!

My prediction wallabies to win by 15 with three tries scored. Honey Badger to put in some big hits!

 

[troxler]

I can see why the Wobs are not favoured to win by the bookies with all their injuries, or players coming back from them.

One consideration would be the weather in Paris and how Oz performed against a bunch of just honest Scotland players in June, the last time they played in the rain - like babes in the woods.

I don't think much credit has been given to the Wallabies ability to grind out a win with a depleted side - or a draw in the case of the Kiwis. Instead they are probably factoring in that the Wobs are just hanging on after having to survive in three games against Wales, two against Argentina, one against the Boks, and one against NZ.

After the longest season on record because of the TRC, our guys can't wait to get back on the plane.

That's not me talking about the Wallabies; just me talking about what the gamblers may be thinking.

In my opinion they are over-estimating the merit of the France side They have good props and a no. 8 in world class form, but Dusautoir is crocked and Bonnaire is no longer around. Instead they have two work engine flankers, maybe to counter Hooper, but they won't bend anything.

They don't have hooker Servat any more and you wouldn't want his long-time apprentice, Szarzweski, in your pub darts team. Pape is a good old boy lock but they have lost their rising 2nd row star Maestri to lumbago.

I have talked about the backs in other posts. Their wingers are dynamite and so can flyhalf Michalak be on his day. The centres are old stagers but the scrummie and fullback are practically brand new.

I think their view and my view will tend to cancel each other out and that France may deserve the favouritism just because of the rain and home advantage factors.
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By the forecast i can get on the web looks like the rain will be all cleared up by kickoff at 9pm local time??

 

[topo]

No real rain or wind today in Paris. It's cold but no worse than Canberra on a winters night. I don't think weather will play a big part in the result.

 

[kronic]

FIRE UP!

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Fired.

 

[kronic]

Anyone watching the Ten coverage over Fox?

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Chez Jarse is on Fox. - Ads on Ch 10.

Who is commentating on Ch 10?

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Les Frogge look fired up at anthems.

 

[No4918]

Chez Jarse is on Fox. - Ads on Ch 10.

Who is commentating on Ch 10?

Burke. Bloody legend;-)

 

[Hugh Jarse]

I see that Sydney GPS referee, Nigel Owens has the gig with the Acme Thunderer. Awesome.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

02:26 in and Adam Two-Dads has already used up his allocation of pass.

 

[maxdacat]

That penalty for offside seems familiar

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Two soft turnovers and a schoolboy offside. FFS The boys in Gold look very jittery.

 

[maxdacat]

Is it just me watching in Canberra or is channel 10 's ad breaks cutting into the action?

 

[Hugh Jarse]

WTF???

A referee penalising a #9 for a dodgy feed in a Scrum. Onya Mr Owens. Lets have more or it!!!!