Aussie Player Exodus

[PhilClinton]

No salary cap increase post Rebels is going to make things difficult:

https://www.theroar.com.au/2025/06/05/valetini-wont-be-going-anywhere-in-2026-but-wallabys-french-flirtation-is-another-warning-shot-to-ra/

That is pretty much what I was thinking. Seeing the Reds lose key squad members like Ryan Smith and Angus Blyth and then not have a suitable 50+ capped Super Rugby second rower ready to sign on (at least not yet) was giving me cap squeeze vibes.

There has been a lot of chest beating recently about all the core players that RA have been able to retain, but it seems to be at the expense of SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) teams being able to keep players.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Potentially, but I imagine that might be contingent on signing on post 2027.

And RA would be keen to raise the Wallabies test rating over the series of tests leading into the RWC, including 2026, so they might be happier to have him here rather than 12 months away on sabbatical.

 

[Derpus]

That is pretty much what I was thinking. Seeing the Reds lose key squad members like Ryan Smith and Angus Blyth and then not have a suitable 50+ capped Super Rugby second rower ready to sign on (at least not yet) was giving me cap squeeze vibes.

There has been a lot of chest beating recently about all the core players that RA have been able to retain, but it seems to be at the expense of SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) (Super Rugby Pacific) teams being able to keep players.

The quality of squad player we lose continues to climb higher whilst the defintion of 'core' grows narrower.

 

[The Ghost of Raelene]

Completely banking on the Wallabies having a good 24 months and getting money in the bank to bring through talented kids. Rugby is a top down sport in Aus.

I'll let everyone else hear it in their head.

 

[PhilClinton]

Someone down at my club the other day used the basketball and the NBL in terms of where he sees rugby fitting in the sports landscape going forward and I do think there are some comparisons that a lot of people in these threads don't like to admit.

- Strong school and club numbers
- National (international if you include NZ) competition that is well below the 'top tier' of sports in Australia but has a very loyal following
- Producing a handful of genuinely world class players who go abroad for the big money (NBA and Euroleague for basketball, Japan and France for rugby)
- Every 4 years or so (RWC for rugby, Olympics for Basketball) we mash all those guys together to try and win something big

The main difference being basketball doesn't have to deal with the ever-growing collision and concussion protocols to the same level as rugby, so there is a realistic scenario where the NBL outgrows SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) in the future.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Someone down at my club the other day used the basketball and the NBL in terms of where he sees rugby fitting in the sports landscape going forward and I do think there are some comparisons that a lot of people in these threads don't like to admit.

- Strong school and club numbers
- National (international if you include NZ) competition that is well below the 'top tier' of sports in Australia but has a very loyal following
- Producing a handful of genuinely world class players who go abroad for the big money (NBA and Euroleague for basketball, Japan and France for rugby)
- Every 4 years or so (RWC for rugby, Olympics for Basketball) we mash all those guys together to try and win something big

The main difference being basketball doesn't have to deal with the ever-growing collision and concussion protocols to the same level as rugby, so there is a realistic scenario where the NBL outgrows SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) (Super Rugby Pacific) in the future.

If you take the Australia-wide view, the NBL is massively more popular than Super Rugby already isn't it?

A total of 1,129,449 fans have attended games throughout the NBL regular season and finals - There have been 54 sell-outs this NBL season

Edit - Obviously depends on what you mean by "sporting landscape", but Ausplay has nearly 5% of Australians participating in basketball, well over 1 million people, nearly twice as many as cricket and aussie rules. 70k for rugby union

 

[PhilClinton]

If you take the Australia-wide view, the NBL is massively more popular than Super Rugby already isn't it?



Edit - Obviously depends on what you mean by "sporting landscape", but Ausplay has nearly 5% of Australians participating in basketball, well over 1 million people, nearly twice as many as cricket and aussie rules. 70k for rugby union

The NBL have 9 Australian based teams and their playoffs go for multiple games, not just one-off knockouts. Hard to compare the crowd numbers when you consider that.

 

[Major Tom]

Completely banking on the Wallabies having a good 24 months and getting money in the bank to bring through talented kids. Rugby is a top down sport in Aus.

View attachment 22330
I'll let everyone else hear it in their head.

Unfortunately, there's not really any other strategy.
AFL and NRL invest in grassroots because they build up their game profile and TV deal.

 

[Major Tom]

The NBL have 9 Australian based teams and their playoffs go for multiple games, not just one-off knockouts. Hard to compare the crowd numbers when you consider that.

It's also competing with the A-League and Cricket.
There's stuff that Super Rugby could probably copy though. Or maybe for the Aus comp after Super Rugby.

 

[wamberal99]

Unfortunately, there's not really any other strategy.
AFL and NRL invest in grassroots because they build up their game profile and TV deal.

Plenty of poker machines in "junior league clubs".

 

[Braveheart81]

Unfortunately, there's not really any other strategy.
AFL and NRL invest in grassroots because they build up their game profile and TV deal.

In hindsight, being an amateur game until 1996 was an issue that is very hard to overcome.

I don't think rugby has adopted a different strategy over the last 30 years. We just came from a base that had none of the same infrastructure AFL and NRL had.

I don't think there was a different strategy available that would put us in a substantially better position than we are in now.

 

[Major Tom]

In hindsight, being an amateur game until 1996 was an issue that is very hard to overcome.

I don't think rugby has adopted a different strategy over the last 30 years. We just came from a base that had none of the same infrastructure AFL and NRL had.

I don't think there was a different strategy available that would put us in a substantially better position than we are in now.

We've basically got the same strategy as NZ, it's just we're shit.
If we invested better after the 2003 RWC we would be fine (hindsight and everything).
It's vexed because being a global game and tied to NZ for a pro comp really hamstrings us but at the same time is our greatest selling point.

 

[Braveheart81]

We've basically got the same strategy as NZ, it's just we're shit.
If we invested better after the 2003 RWC we would be fine (hindsight and everything).
It's vexed because being a global game and tied to NZ for a pro comp really hamstrings us but at the same time is our greatest selling point.

The finances in NZ aren't exactly rosy.

I agree that we could have invested the windfall from the 2003 RWC better. A cheaper, more sustainable ARC/NRC would have been a good start.

I don't think there's anything drastically different that could or should have been done though.

 

[Derpus]

We've basically got the same strategy as NZ, it's just we're shit.
If we invested better after the 2003 RWC we would be fine (hindsight and everything).
It's vexed because being a global game and tied to NZ for a pro comp really hamstrings us but at the same time is our greatest selling point.

NZ are on the same path as us - just not as far down.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Australian rugby has always had a revenue problem. There has never been anything I've heard that would realistically change that problem

 

[Braveheart81]

NZ are on the same path as us - just not as far down.

I'd argue we're broadly in the same place we've been for a very long time except for a couple of periods where our financial or on field success was better than it usually has been.

A lot of people take the John Eales etc. era as the norm that we have fallen so far from whereas it far more resembles the blip of overperformance relative to our history once you zoom out and expand the timeframe.

 

[Derpus]

I'd argue we're broadly in the same place we've been for a very long time except for a couple of periods where our financial or on field success was better than it usually has been.

A lot of people take the John Eales etc. era as the norm that we have fallen so far from whereas it far more resembles the blip of overperformance relative to our history once you zoom out and expand the timeframe.

The whole ‘reverting to historical norms’ is such a copout. We had a huge financial headstart and strong performances at the start of the professional era and cooked it. What relevance is, for example, the amateur games struggles in the 60s and 70s at this point?

The top down model doesnt work and its biting NZ as well. They were just in a way better position.

 

[Major Tom]

The whole ‘reverting to historical norms’ is such a copout. We had a huge financial headstart and strong performances at the start of the professional era and cooked it. What relevance is, for example, the amateur games struggles in the 60s and 70s at this point?

The top down model doesnt work and its biting NZ as well. They were just in a way better position.

Again. What’s the solution? RA need money to function. Wallabies brand generates the money. All well and good to say we gotta sort grassroots and the lower levels of the game but it ain’t cheap.
Ultimately, I think the wallabies need consistent coaching and clever selection policy that’s supported with a solid high performance structure and some luck. I feel we’ve been doing this recently. But we desperately need a third tier comp and to keep developing our young pathway. It’s honestly such a mammoth task. We seriously need some luck.

 

[HogansHeros]

Na, let France develop them, save that cash, pay top dollar to bring back the good ones.

 

[Derpus]

Again. What’s the solution? RA need money to function. Wallabies brand generates the money. All well and good to say we gotta sort grassroots and the lower levels of the game but it ain’t cheap.
Ultimately, I think the wallabies need consistent coaching and clever selection policy that’s supported with a solid high performance structure and some luck. I feel we’ve been doing this recently. But we desperately need a third tier comp and to keep developing our young pathway. It’s honestly such a mammoth task. We seriously need some luck.

Doesn't really matter because we've committed to not changing anything.