Data has proven that the whole concept of 'the four year cycle' actually doesn't work. It's roughly a 2 year block leading into the world cup that is the most important for keeping a group together and building cohesion
Bloody players before they are ready can have negative impacts on both the teams culture/morale as well as the individuals development
I don’t doubt it, but which data/study/observation says this?
Purely looking at the Wallabies over the last four years and not really delving into it in detail, we debuted 40 players from 2016 to 2019.
In 2016, 13 players made their debut and 7 of those ended up in our RWC squad.
2017, 14 debutants and 6 made the RWC squad.
2018 had 8 debutants and only 1 made it.
2019 had 5 debutants and 2 made it.
Of the 2016 debutants, DHP, Allan Ala'alatoa, Reece Hodge, Samu Kerevi and Adam Coleman became regular members of our 23 over most/all of that cycle.
Rory Arnold and Tolu Latu were in and out over the four years.
Based off this and a bit of gut feel I would say that from a player's perspective entering test rugby pretty soon after a RWC is pretty important if you want to be picked for the next RWC. The later you leave your debut the less likely you are to make it (noting that both Isi Naisarani and Jordan Petaia who debuted in 2019 would have made their debuts sooner (particularly in the case of Naisarani) if it was possible).
I don't think it is important for a test team to try and narrow down their squad early in the cycle thinking it will be relatively stable for four years because it will largely be wrong.
At least a third and more likely around half of our 2023 RWC squad will have yet to make their test debut. Going on history, a lot of those players will make their debuts this year or next but may well not be consistent members of the team until closer to 2023.
