Aus conference finals run

[gel]

I cannot come up with a possible solution though.

Just need to add more days in the year

 

[RedsHappy]

Heard JdV this morning on radio. Said you need a decent sqaud of 40 players to stand any chance of winning this compo.

Great to be hearing someone of his knowledge talking sense about the squad size needed to compete properly at this level. 40-42 sounds about right to me, with all these players fully integrated into the core systems, S&C routines, training regimes, etc.

Our latest ARU directive to further reduce Australian S15 (and national) squad sizes is simply madness - well, it's that if our goal is to win S15s and 4Ns, etc. If our goal is 'cost-efficient mediocrity with 5 franchises that never win anything major' it makes a lot of sense.

 

[PaarlBok]

Great to be hearing someone of his knowledge talking sense about the squad size needed to compete properly at this level. 40-42 sounds about right to me, with all these players fully integrated into the core systems, S&C routines, training regimes, etc.

Our latest ARU directive to further reduce Australian S15 (and national) squad sizes is simply madness - well, it's that if our goal is to win S15s and 4Ns, etc. If our goal is 'cost-efficient mediocrity with 5 franchises that never win anything major' it makes a lot of sense.

The ARU should try and get something similiar going to our Vodacom competion. It gives the youth and close to S15 match 22s the oppertunity to play active rugby for the duration of the S15 competition. It will also help your franchise to develope more players. Win win situation and they can play curtain raisers at your conferense matches to help draw more supporters to the matches.

 

[Bardon]

The more I look at the run ins the more likely it seems to me that an Aus team will have to win the conference to make the play offs. This makes the games between the top 3 Aus teams possible deciders.

The only sccenario I can see with 2 Aus teams making it is for the Brumbies and 1 of the Tahs or the Reds winning their remaining games, with the Brumbies losing to whichever of the other 2 qualifies. But this would still reply on a collapse in form from 1 or 2 of their non Aus top 6 rivals.

Maybe after the next couple of rounds the landscape will be different but at the moment for 2 Aus teams to qualify there has to be a massive improvement in the form of all Aus teams when playing SA & NZ sides and a few favours from non Aus teams.

 

[rugbysmartarse]

Heard JdV this morning on radio. Said you need a decent sqaud of 40 players to stand any chance of winning this compo.

It seems he's being proven correct, too.

 

[antimony]

The only sccenario I can see with 2 Aus teams making it is for the Brumbies and 1 of the Tahs or the Reds winning their remaining games, with the Brumbies losing to whichever of the other 2 qualifies. But this would still reply on a collapse in form from 1 or 2 of their non Aus top 6 rivals.

I agree that either the tahs or the reds will have to go unbeaten from here if we're to get 2 Aussie teams into the 6 (they could possibly lose 1 but then your loooking at BP's and praying).

I don't think it needs a dramatic drop in form from 1 of the top 6 sides though. The Tahs still get to take points off the Bulls, Stormers, Brumbies and Reds while the Reds have the Cheifs, Brumbies, Highlanders and Tahs to play and peg back. None of them unwinable (maybe the Stormers game) its stringing them together that makes it unlikely.

In NZ the Cheifs, Saders and Landers all have 1 more game against each other. The Highlanders in particular have a hard run home particularly as I'd never totally right off the canes and blues, IF the reds or the tahs can get into the 6 they're my tip to drop out.

For SA I think you can say the Stormers are home (probably the Cheifs too) but the Bulls still have to play the Tahs, Landers, and Cheifs away then home to play the Stormers at Loftus and the Sharks in Durban.

 

[No4918]

Reds (9th, 31 points)

Lions
Brumbies (A)
Bye
Rebels (A)
Highlanders
Waratahs

Brumbies (3rd, 39 points)

Hurricanes (A)
Reds
Rebels (A)
Force (A)
Waratahs (A)
Blues

Waratahs (11th, 27 points)

Stormers (A)
Cheetahs (A)
Hurricanes
Bye
Brumbies
Reds(A)

Updated

 

[waratahjesus]

Looking at that, I still stand by the reds overtaking the brumbies, the aus v aus games are going to be terrifically tense.

 

[cyclopath]

At the moment, the momentum is with the Reds, who seem to be re-discovering their dynamism, and playing to their strengths while negating weaknesses. I suspect the Brumbies will struggle a little without Lealiifano, but after the bye, they will have had an extended period to get a plan in place, so who knows. Effectively, Reds are on 35 points and will probably be 5 points more after next week (Lions?), Tahs on 31 considering their bye in hand. Tahs are not in it, however. I think the Reds will sneak the conference win.

 

[Blue]

I am backing the Reds to finish top of the Aus conference. I think the Brums will struggle to keep their momentum and things are falling into the place for the Reds now. The Brumbes need to beat the Canes next week else their confidence will be dented when they hit the Reds the week after. Huge game that. Might just hit the Hume Highway for that one. Worth the trip.

 

[Roundawhile]

Before tonight I didn't think the reds could make the finals, now I am not so sure. I still believe that it will take some stategic losses by other teams but we can make it if we continue to improve. Quade coming back could be a mixed blessing. It is brilliant to see the team beat the chiefs, but will QC (Quade Cooper)'s return disrupt the flow? Can everyone adapt to a completely different style of play? I think it will be enthralling to watch.

The other complicating factor is whether QC (Quade Cooper) resigns with the reds. This could have a major influence on the team.

 

[gel]

I keep forgetting the possible impact the test break will have. Whichever team forms the back bone of the wallabies will be exposed to further injuries to star players as well as post big game blues. Adding in the Robbie Deans factor whereby loose heads start playing tight head, flankers play lock, backs told to move forwards, forwards told to move backwards, and the halves told to always be twirling, twirling, twirling...*

All significant contributing super rugby franchises exposed to this test series will suffer.

* - blatant plagiarism of the Simpsons.

 

[liquor box]

My selections to win in Bold with points total from each game

Reds (9th, 31 points)

Lions (BP) (5P)
Brumbies (A) (1BP)
Bye (4P)
Rebels (A) (BP) (5P)
Highlanders
Waratahs (4P)

Brumbies (3rd, 39 points)

Hurricanes (A) (1BP)
Reds (4P)
Rebels (A) (4P)
Force (A) (BP) (5P)
Waratahs (A) (BP)
Blues (4P)

Waratahs (11th, 27 points)

Stormers (A)
Cheetahs (A) (BP)
Hurricanes (4p)
Bye (4P)
Brumbies (4p)
Reds(A)

Reds 50 points
Brumbies 58 points
Tahs 40 points

I hope I am wrong but I still cant see the Reds making it.

Has a team ever made a finals in any sport after they have been declared a "mathematical posibility"? Or is it a lost cause?

 

[RedsHappy]

lb, it's reasonably clear is it not that the Reds vs Brum in Canberra will have huge impact on the ultimate Aus Conf outcome and the BPs that may come from that.

Numbers-wise, the Reds are still 'fighting' their low BPs gained earlier in the season.

gel makes a big, correct point re the June Tests. There'll be injuries from that, and the Reds will probably contribute more players to them than the Brums. Net on-paper exposure to Reds, plus fatigue factor will cut in given multi-Test intensity, and again this could favour the team with comparatively less Test players selected, the June break will be a good rest-up. Equally, balancing this, Tests could confidence boost newer Test players selected, and they could return to the July S15 as better performers.

For the Reds, looks like QC (Quade Cooper) will be back in two more matches. But let's not get carried away with that Reds' fans, it's clear that it typically takes 2-3 games for players to really start performing at their best after a long absence.

 

[liquor box]

lb, it's reasonably clear is it not that the Reds vs Brum in Canberra will have huge impact on the ultimate Aus Conf outcome and the BPs that may come from that.

Numbers-wise, the Reds are still 'fighting' their low BPs gained earlier in the season.

gel makes a big, correct point re the June Tests. There'll be injuries from that, and the Reds will probably contribute more players to them than the Brums. Net on-paper exposure to Reds, plus fatigue factor will cut in given multi-Test intensity, and again this could favour the team with comparatively less Test players selected, the June break will be a good rest-up. Equally, balancing this, Tests could confidence boost newer Test players selected, and they could return to the July S15 as better performers.

For the Reds, looks like QC (Quade Cooper) will be back in two more matches. But let's not get carried away with that Reds' fans, it's clear that it typically takes 2-3 games for players to really start performing at their best after a long absence.

I wonder if QC (Quade Cooper) will start from the bench? He could be a great backup at 10 and 15 until he is back in the swing of things.
Personally I would be trying to start him as the more minutes, the better.

Does anyone know if he will play a club mathc before coming back?

 

[Slim 293]

The Rebels have done us all a big favour on the weekend...

Looking at the ladder now, it isn't impossible for both the Brumbies and the Reds to both make the finals if they both win the majority of their remaining matches...

It would probably require the Brumbies to beat the 'Canes this week though...