Aus conference finals run

[No4918]

Reds (9th, 31 points)

Lions
Brumbies (A)
Bye
Rebels (A)
Highlanders
Waratahs

Brumbies (3rd, 39 points)

Hurricanes (A)
Reds
Rebels (A)
Force (A)
Waratahs (A)
Blues

Waratahs (11th, 27 points)

Stormers (A)
Cheetahs (A)
Hurricanes
Bye
Brumbies
Reds(A)


May not tell the whole story about where a side will finish but should give a good indication of who will win our conference.
Brums may have 'easier' sides bit are away and without Lilo? Tahs have it tough and still need to head to SA. Had the Reds got up yesterday i'd be very confident but will be tough to get 2 wins back frlm the Brumbies.

 

[tigerland12]

Brumbies and Tahs have probably equally difficult runs home. For the Brumbies the games against Canes, Tahs and Reds are vital. For the Tahs they need to salvage points against the Stormers and not slip up against the Cheetahs or Canes. QLD simply need to win everything, and despite having the most difficult run, they are starting to hit form and I wouldn't bet against them doing that. Will be close.

 

[rugbysmartarse]

for interest's sake, I hope the last week tahs v reds game becomes the decider in a 3 way race, although not sure I could stomach the tension

 

[Hardtackle]

For me its either the Reds or ponies to top it. Reds have the tougher draw of these two but the loss of Lilo will be huge. The Reds Brumbies clash could well determine it.

 

[Ruggo]

I like the Reds run home. Some tough games but at home.
Tahs have it tough. Stormers away could be a fatal blow for their season. If they and the Reds stay in touch that last game in Brisbane will be a cracker.
Lady luck has been kind to the Brumbies with no Saders. That doesn't detract from their fine season to date. They deserve to be where they are and are in a good spot to keep distance between them and Tahs and Reds.

 

[Braveheart81]

I think the Tahs have to win every game but the Stormers one to be any chance. They will need a couple of bonus points along the way as well.

We need the Brumbies to struggle without Lilo. Reds losing to the Chiefs and then beating the Brumbies will be crucial for the Tahs chances.

 

[Schadenfreude]

Aren't the reds ranked higher than the Tahs at the moment on wins?

 

[Braveheart81]

Yes they are.

 

[tigerland12]

QLD need to start picking up bonus points.

 

[JJJ]

A bit off topic, but is anyone else getting the impression that the reduced number of matches against kiwi/saffer opposition is causing our boys to fall behind the pace?

 

[spectator]

The Aus Conference is the Brumbies to lose. Bye this week takes them to 39 points and they will then be fresh for the trip to Wellington. Throw in wins against Rebels, Force and Blues and they are a lay down misere.

 

[Braveheart81]

The Aus Conference is the Brumbies to lose. Bye this week takes them to 39 points and they will then be fresh for the trip to Wellington. Throw in wins against Rebels, Force and Blues and they are a lay down misere.

The curveball the Brumbies need to deal with is that their star and very much in form playmaker, Christian Lealiifano will be doing little more than playing 500 for the next few months.

 

[gel]

Just looking at those games I would imagine the points would be something like...

Reds end of season total 47
Brumbies end of season total 57
Tahs end of season total 42

Therefore only the brumbies would make the finals.

Although anything could happen really. This season has had a number big surprises already...

I don't know how the brumbies will go without their fly half - I just don't know them enough to guess how a replacement will go.

The reds could have a melt down after the loss to saders, or win every match from here on in... They are just having that sort of season.

The waratahs are a bit the same really, they really should be way better than what they have been playing (and dare I say it... Should almost always be the premier Australian side). Just saying that makes me want to vomit though.

 

[qwerty51]

A bit off topic, but is anyone else getting the impression that the reduced number of matches against kiwi/saffer opposition is causing our boys to fall behind the pace?

no

 

[Iluvmyfooty]

After watching last weeks game against the Brumbies I will state now that the tahs are no hope. Solid forward pack but a backline that wouldn't challenge most Shute Shield sides - out of form No10 and two centres who lack imagination and any attacking flair, a back three that are pedestrian. They won't winn another game.

The Brumbies will definitely make it as winner of the conference and the Reds will go very close with a bye and 4 home games.

 

[Country Kid]

Big pluses for the Brumbies so far...

All players are contributing week in and week out
Ability to pick up bonus points
Self belief
Fitness

If the Brumbies can keep this up, then it will be hard for QLD to beg them back.

But would love to see the Reds get into the top six, if that is at all possible?

 

[Gnostic]

The key for the Oz conference is how the Brumbies cope with who ever steps in at 10. Only the Reds can threaten them and in any event only one Oz side will be in this years finals. The Tahs are gone and I take no pleasure in saying that I started as much four Weeks ago based on their mode of play. Rebels to finish above the Force.

The Reds could take top spot if they continue their current playing style and dont lose anybody to injury.

 

[Richo]

Tough call. With Lilo, I'd put money on the Ponies. Without, the only thing I'd put money on is the Aussie team being bundled out in the first round. The Reds could come good but it's a big ask from here.

 

[Slim 293]

Losing Lilo is huge... But I'm hoping that their forwards, and the individual brilliance of some of their backs can do enough to take them to the finals...

 

[PaarlBok]

TYou'll only have the Brumbies as conferense winner in the top6 in 2012.