April Wallaby 30 Man Squad

[Braveheart81]

If foley had a bit more experience, i would agree with you that his name should be up there. but it is a bit much to throw him in the lions den with so little super rugby experience. he played great though the last few weeks.

So you're discounting Foley based on Super Rugby experience (or lack thereof) but saying that To'omua should be close to the first option?

To'omua might have played about double the Super Rugby games but Foley would have played double the games of To'omua in 2012 and 2013. I don't think you could really count one's experience as being more meaningful than the other. Foley also played a couple of years of 7s for Australia.

Given what happened with Beale, I would be picking JOC (James O'Connor) at 10 against the Lions. I wouldn't be picking To'omua or Foley ahead of him based on playing there this season. I don't think there is any real reason to rank To'omua above Foley though.

 

[Dan54]

Has anyone seen the 30 named?? Is it a fact that Cooper is out??
OK my opinion is if Deans has named 30 and Cooper is out of mix would be one of the few selection surprises Deans has made in his career I agree with. Though I not convinced it true, I wonder if people that are saying he should pick players that play 10, then he should probably also pick players that defend at 10, the problem if he doesn't and keeps playing Cooper at 15 in defence, you then pick a 15 comfortable moving to 10. The risk is, picking QC (Quade Cooper) first then selecting players to suit HIS style of play, not a good option in a team sport as a rule I wouldn't think.

 

[Ignoto]

4.Timani
12.McCabe/Horne. 14 Mitchell
15. Falou/Mogg/Beale
27. Vuna/Mafi

Timani? Hasn't shown consistency to be rewarded the 4 jersey. Douglas is a better option.

McCabe or Horne - You jest right? I thought we established McCabe at 12 simply doesn't work? Neither has shown anything this season to suggest they're in good form (only returning from injury)

Falou/Beale - One is so green that he'll get eaten alive by the Lions and the other is suspended and should worry about getting fit/his off field problems before being considered.

Vuna? Seriously? He's so low down on the pecking order with wingers, especially with Tomane, Shipperly, the honey badger and even Samo should be considered before Vuna.

 

[hazzaj]

Timani? Hasn't shown consistency to be rewarded the 4 jersey. Douglas is a better option.

McCabe or Horne - You jest right? I thought we established McCabe at 12 simply doesn't work? Neither has shown anything this season to suggest they're in good form (only returning from injury)

Falou/Beale - One is so green that he'll get eaten alive by the Lions and the other is suspended and should worry about getting fit/his off field problems before being considered.

Vuna? Seriously? He's so low down on the pecking order with wingers, especially with Tomane, Shipperly, the honey badger and even Samo should be considered before Vuna.

Without Cooper , Deans has forced his hand. It majorly distorts the team and this will be what he will run with. I would be extremely surprised to see Centers playing there who dont have previous Wallaby experience.

Shipperly is a very good call actually, probably swap him for Vuna.

Cummins has played 2 games this year and is injured, the others arent Wallaby level yet.

Oh Timani is there because Deans has a raging hard on for him, I prefer Simmons. Im writing this from the perspective of Deans.

 

[Braveheart81]

I still think Tapuai is most likely to get first crack at 12 after playing there on the EOYT. I really doubt McCabe will waltz straight in without some strong form. He's going to struggle to get there if he ends up on the Brumbies bench for many more games.

If JOC (James O'Connor) is playing 10, I think Mitchell has the best chance at the 14 jersey.

 

[meatsack]

Here is a link to a stat query on ESPN Scrum. The filter is basically, Australian players winning % vs NZ over the last 5 years:
http://stats.espnscrum.com/statsguru/rugby/stats/index.html?class=1;opposition=8;orderby=percentage;spanmax1=11 Apr 2013;spanmin1=11 Apr 2008;spanval1=span;team=6;template=results;type=player

If we manually filter out the guys who only had 1 start and were lucky enough to have it be a win/draw, we get this as a top 4

BJ McCalman​

2010-2011​

40.00

DJ Vickerman​

2008-2011​

40.00

PJ McCabe​

2011-2012​

37.50

QS Cooper​

2010-2012​

33.33

33.33​

JOC (James O'Connor) doesn't appear till page 2, and I'm assuming that 1 win was Honkers with 14 on his back.
igures

JD O'Connor​

2009-2011​

10.00

I'm not advocating picking people purely on stats, I'm just pointing out to people saying Quade sucks against NZ, well, a lot of Wallabies have poor records against them.

 

[hazzaj]

I still think Tapuai is most likely to get first crack at 12 after playing there on the EOYT. I really doubt McCabe will waltz straight in without some strong form. He's going to struggle to get there if he ends up on the Brumbies bench for many more games.

If JOC (James O'Connor) is playing 10, I think Mitchell has the best chance at the 14 jersey.

Deans has said he will go for experience. It wont be a huge surprise for me if hes given the jersey.

 

[Braveheart81]

The filter is basically, Australian players winning % vs NZ over the last 5 years:

BJ McCalman​

2010-2011​

40.00

DJ Vickerman​

2008-2011​

40.00

PJ McCabe​

2011-2012​

37.50

Let's just pick people who have the middle initial J.​

 

[RedsHappy]

Here is a link to a stat query on ESPN Scrum. The filter is basically, Australian players winning % vs NZ over the last 5 years:
......
I'm not advocating picking people purely on stats, I'm just pointing out to people saying Quade sucks against NZ, well, a lot of Wallabies have poor records against them.

Just as an aside: I think it would be very interesting to analyse the rate or quantum of stats difference there is when comparing QC (Quade Cooper)'s 'excessive Test errors and brain farts package' (you know what I mean and it's widely referred to in this thread) in his NZ-based Tests vs his non-NZ-based Tests.

I somehow intuitively think there'd be a definable difference. For example, in the lead-up the RWC, there was not as I recall a large consensus that QC (Quade Cooper) was a very poor player in Tests and therefore should not go the RWC as Wallaby 10. Were there not numerous pre-RWC Tests in 2010 and 2011 wherein QC (Quade Cooper) actually was a key part of Australian wins, e.g., vs the ABs in HKG?

This is NOT a vehement argument for QC (Quade Cooper) v BIL. But I do think that the many factors that came together in the NZ RWC - both self-incflicted and not so - cohered to drastically affect Cooper's confidence and anxiety level in playing in that environment and from which, psychologically speaking, he did not recover in 2012 (along with lingering injury recovery issues last year).

Deans and Cooper are not suited to each other, if ever they were. It will be better for both if the intrinsic strains and mutual lack of trust in their relationship was not re-tested in the pressured BIL environment. But I do think Cooper was and still will be a much better Test player out of NZ than inside it.

 

[kiap]

Wouldn't be surprised is this camp is entirely Brumbies/Tahs/Rebels simply based on the fact that the Reds will be in NZ and the Force will still be in Perth on Saturday night.

You may be right.

However, the end of this story in the Courier Mail stated:

Queensland captain James Horwill will attend the camp but three-Test Wallabies winger Dom Shipperley was not invited.​

 

[RedsHappy]

You may be right.

However, the end of this story in the Courier Mail stated:

Queensland captain James Horwill will attend the camp but three-Test Wallabies winger Dom Shipperley was not invited.​

Indeed. And there are plenty of early flights Sunday a.m. from NZ and Perth to Sydney.

(Btw, the manner by which this whole 'logistics camp' story has leaked out without a clear, clean media announcement and explanation is quite negligent and predictably incompetent. It was a huge invitation for wild media speculation, gossip and negativity vs players not included all of a type that cannot have fostered a trusting vibe between those excluded and the ARU-Deans machine.)

 

[Bullrush]

But I do think Cooper was and still will be a much better Test player out of NZ than inside it.

I think this is a very good point. The QC (Quade Cooper)/Carlos Spencer type of player is perhaps more common down under than it is in the NH. Most of us (kiwis and aussies) went to school with and played in the grades with at least 2 or 3 players who were just freakish with some of the things they pulled off skill-wise so we're a bit better suited to handle a guy like QC (Quade Cooper).

For the same reason, I don't think Palu makes as much impact against SA and NZ as he does against the NH teams. We're pretty used to big island boys coming at us at full steam

 

[meatsack]

Let's just pick people who have the middle initial J.

I know you were joking, but another query, this time over 20 years, winning % vs NZ, 5 or more matches played, the Top 30 players:
Player Span Mat %
NP Grey 1999-2003 5 80
MJ Cockbain 1997-2003 11 72.72
AT Blades 1997-1999 6 66.66
BJ Darwin 2001-2003 6 66.66
JBG Harrison 2001-2004 6 66.66
V Ofahengaue 1994-1998 6 66.66
DJ Herbert 1997-2002 11 63.63
PN Kearns 1993-1999 8 62.5
RST Kefu 1998-2003 13 61.53
ODA Finegan 1996-2003 11 54.54
DJ Crowley 1995-1999 6 50
JA Eales 1994-2001 14 50
EJ (Eddie Jones) Flatley 2001-2005 8 50
DT Giffin 1999-2003 8 50
DJ Lyons 2002-2005 6 50
MC Burke 1995-2004 17 47.05
JWC Roff 1995-2003 17 47.05
SJ Larkham 1997-2007 22 45.45
JS Little 1993-2000 11 45.45
GM Gregan 1994-2007 27 44.44
DJ Wilson 1993-2000 14 42.85
MA Foley 1996-2001 10 40
BJ McCalman 2010-2011 5 40
EP Noriega 1999-2003 5 40
WJ Sailor 2003-2004 5 40
BN Tune 1996-2006 13 38.46
BJ Cannon 2001-2005 8 37.5
MJ Dunning 2004-2008 8 37.5
TJ Horan 1993-1999 11 36.36
CE Latham 2000-2007 14 35.71

13 of the top 30 with a second name beginning with J, maybe you are onto something!

 

[wobbly]

<quote>(Btw, the manner by which this whole 'logistics camp' story has leaked out without a clear, clean media announcement and explanation is quite negligent and predictably incompetent. It was a huge invitation for wild media speculation, gossip and negativity vs players not included all of a type that cannot have fostered a trusting vibe between those excluded and the ARU-Deans machine.)<\quote>

Wakey wakey ARU media office + Slow news day / week for rugby journo's + rugby fans with fuck all else to wank on about = complete bullshit speculation.

Surely all stakeholders can do better than this.

 

[wobbly]

And for my second whinge of the day... No wonder we're pushing shit up a hill trying to dominate world cricket or rugby in this country.

CA has fucked over our chances in successive Ashes, India, against SA - due to consistently fucking up the schedule and not allowing our test team the required preparation time.

Ditto, the ARU has rooted our chances in recent seasons with its atrocious scheduling (think Scotland, Samoa, EOYT after RWC11, now the Lions.

If we lose the first Lions test, the ARU top brass should be thrashed around the training paddock and chucked in the surf for a mid winter 5am swim. Fuckwits!

 

[Sir Arthur Higgins]

So you're discounting Foley based on Super Rugby experience (or lack thereof) but saying that To'omua should be close to the first option?

To'omua might have played about double the Super Rugby games but Foley would have played double the games of To'omua in 2012 and 2013. I don't think you could really count one's experience as being more meaningful than the other. Foley also played a couple of years of 7s for Australia.

Given what happened with Beale, I would be picking JOC (James O'Connor) at 10 against the Lions. I wouldn't be picking To'omua or Foley ahead of him based on playing there this season. I don't think there is any real reason to rank To'omua above Foley though.

I think part of the issue here is that you perceived my saying “To'omua, lilo and either QC (Quade Cooper) or JOC (James O'Connor)” as a ranking of preference. That was just a list of the contenders. I struggle with QC (Quade Cooper) and JOC (James O'Connor) being there based on QC (Quade Cooper)’s form/history and JOC (James O'Connor)’s lack of play there this year.

From my personal perspective, my fly half ranking is: Lilo, JOC (James O'Connor), To'omua (in that order). I’ve said all over this forum that I think JOC (James O'Connor) was great for the Force when he got into the 10 jersey, great for the wallabies the other year when he played there and has shown good form for the rebels when he gets ago. However…I prefer a fly half to be more a distributor than a runner and for that I prefer Lilo as JOC (James O'Connor) runs a bit too much for my taste.

I think foley has been great the past two weeks. but I didn’t think he was as hot last year and from memory he spent more time at full back last year than 10. The past few weeks he has turned it on, but earlier in the season he was less self-assured. With a bit of time settled into 10, he is growing each weak.

With beale on the outs (and rumours of deans being fed up with him) I think the following backline sounds like it will happen
9 genia
10 JOC (James O'Connor)
11 Ioane
12 Horne
13 AAC (Adam Ashley-Cooper)
14 Mitchell
15 Mogg

White
Lilo
Mafi

It's a good backline, but to be honest i don't see it as any better than what the lions will throw up. a few positions we win, a few they do. Genia will be the difference.

 

[Richo]

Horne won't and shouldn't be the 12. He's played well the last few weeks, but he shouldn't get an invite to any camps either.

12. Tapuai or Lilo.

 

[fatprop]

Horne won't and shouldn't be the 12. He's played well the last few weeks, but he shouldn't get an invite to any camps either.

12. Tapuai or Lilo.

Looking at the way the Wobs played in the last series, I wouldn't be surprised to see McCabe or Horne considered as the "Nathan Grey" option.

We are going to play conservative, a unit to truck it up at 12 is a very likely option

 

[Sir Arthur Higgins]

Horne won't and shouldn't be the 12. He's played well the last few weeks, but he shouldn't get an invite to any camps either.

12. Tapuai or Lilo.

totally forgot about taps!
i would have him in, but i think deans will go with horne or mccabe, probably horne as at the moment mccabe is a long way off....and never thought i would say this but horne has looked good at 12!

ya i would love JOC (James O'Connor) and Lilo at 10,12.....not sure it'll happen though.

 

[hazzaj]

So many people holding grudges against players... what is this, highschool?