2015 IRB Junior Rugby World Cup - Italy

[FrontRowFan]

Before a ball is kicked in the nationals you have to think of Fainga'a and McInerney as the two principal hookers for the Aussie team.

The others I know: Mafi, Craig and Bradford were all at school last year which means they are at a disadvantage in rugby maturity.

[snip]

However a couple of games in Canberra will make pages of this thread superfluous.

But what else are we going to do?
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Lee, you are right - we need to wait till the Canberra games to see what's what.

But seems to me that any player in any position in one of these three squads can be selected for the National Squad, as well as those currently injured.

Won't the selectors have their clipboards and be tasked to watch players in specific positions according to a pre-determined set of criteria? Like the schoolboys comp, especially as the national coaching team won't know all the boys and will presumably be looking for any smokies. Is that how they do it at these more senior tournaments, or do they go more for reputation and skin in the game?

I wouldn't think they'll care who was at school last year or who is what age (this can just be a matter of months or days difference in many cases), or even what they did last season, as boys at this age grow and change so much.

With hookers, for instance, would not someone with a reliable and accurate throw beat another boy who can't throw straight, no matter his pedigree, and assuming other aspects of their game are acceptable?

* Mr Jarse, your post just now crossed with mine above, and you have enlightened me on some of the differences an extra year out of school can bring. However, I still think my principle point stands... FRF.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

<snip>

With hookers, for instance, would not someone with a reliable and accurate throw beat another boy who can't throw straight, no matter his pedigree, and assuming other aspects of their game are acceptable?
<snip>

The answer to the above question must be so obvious to most of the population that it falls into the rhetorical classification.

I'm unsure how many times it needs to be posted, but the revised model for choosing the State, Barbarian and National U20 squads seems to have all but eliminated reputation, scrapbooks, secret handshakes and connections as selection criteria.

What counts is demonstrated performance, skills and attitude over extended periods under close observation at training and trial games. Not that this wasn't a factor in the past under the "old" model.

At least one player with previous State U20 experience has been cut from this years
squad, and I'm sure that there would be other examples of this happening in the past. Even under the "old model" of national selection camps plenty of candidates with an Australian Schoolboy stamp in their scrapbook were cut from the programme if they could not produce the goods at the Selection camps.

If a hooker, or a halfback, flanker, outside back or whatever is less adept at a core element of their position than another candidate in the extended squad, then the coaches and selectors will generally pick the more skilled lad (in their eyes). In the event that a first year out of school player can match the physicality of a second year out of school player, and they can demonstrate similar or better core skills of their preferred position better than another candidate, then as per the Sean McMahon factor, they will get selected.

I reiterate that in nearly every circumstance the longer a kid has been in an elite or high level development programme learning and practicing game skills, position specific skills, life skills, and working on their overall S&C, then the greater their chance of selection not because of the "scrapbook" they have assembled, but because they have generally demonstrated the necessary skills advancement and met the required objectives required to stay in that programme.

 

[Lee Grant]

I don't think we should be second-guessing the national selectors.

They will trust that NSW and Qld have selfishly selected their teams with the best players after testing them for months so their team can win in Canberra. They would assume that if the state selectors thought a fellow in his first year out of school would do a better job than another in his second or third year out of school they would pick him because they wanted results.

It's just that it is unlikely that the state selectors would prefer a player in his under 18 year to another player in his Under 19 or 20 year unless he was a standout player.

The third team, the Aus Barbarians, was made up of players from teams selected locally by other selfish people who wanted good results in a selection tournament in Adelaide. For them age wouldn't have mattered either: they were selfish.

Scrapbooks and age wouldn't come into it because they knew that scoreboard attendants just put the scores on the board, not how big the scrapbooks were, nor how old the players.

Sure, there are selection criteria and sure, the Aussie selectors would know most of the 78 boys in the three teams and their ages. It would be hard for them not to since they would have tracked most of them since they were at school.

They would know the current non-scrapbook form of the U20 Barbarians because they would have seen them in Adelaide; in fact, they selected the Barbarians' team.

And I saw them at TG Millner watching the NSW boys, and no doubt they have seen the Queensland boys up there too.

They know the non-scrapbook form.

What they don't know is how the current non-scrapbook form of players from one team stacks up against the current non-scrapbook form of players from the other two teams.

That's what the national tournament in Canberra is all about. And they will be looking at player attributes that don't appear in scrapbooks.

As Head Coach Adrian Thompson (who was at TG Millner) told me in 2013 and 2014: they will be looking for lads who can back up with short rest periods because that is the reality of the international U20 competition—and players who can cover different positions, which is another reality. Plus they will be with the boys off the field at the AIS and assessing them in non-rugby ways - another reality of a touring party.

Incidentally the Aussie selectors have every right to invite a young player to the camp after the nationals though overlooked for Canberra— or is injured now, but will be fit in a month's time.

Reputations? They wouldn't give a stuff—they are selfish too and want to win in Italy. The scoreboard works the same way over there.

(I may have digressed there - but never mind.)
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[Sideline Eye]

ARU National U20 2015 Draw is here: http://myrugby.rugby.com.au/myrugby/competitions/external/drawresult.asp?comp=10759&OrgID=000001

Side point: It is interesting that RugbyLink is not being used to record the U20 National Championship draw, results and team sheets. Using RugbyLink for Player Registration and Competition management was apparently mandated by ARU as part of the "registration and insurance Business Model changes" introduced by the ARU GM Participation. This caused plenty of teeth gnashing and dummy spitting across Rugbydom, yet the tournament management tool that the ARU use seems identical to whatever the NSW Shute Shield folk have been doing for a while, and it looks nothing like RugbyLink.

Huw, this is exactly the system used by Subbies in Sydney.

 

[FrontRowFan]

The answer to the above question must be so obvious to most of the population that it falls into the rhetorical classification.

I'm unsure how many times it needs to be posted, but the revised model for choosing the State, Barbarian and National U20 squads seems to have all but eliminated reputation, scrapbooks, secret handshakes and connections as selection criteria.

Indeed, it is rhetorical. But used this most obvious of examples to counter some of the inferences creeping into posts in this thread that there are some boys who are incumbent, obvious selections, a year older, were in U20s last year, etc, which means they would be the natural choice. While this is also obviously patently obvious and largely true - and I guess they need to have a place to start from - anyone could grab any position on the field from the three teams trialling (except for the obvious standouts with the Kellaway factor, or something near to it).

Anyway, as General Lee Grant said above, we really can't second guess the selectors, and have to wait till Canberra to see what we will see: "What else can we do". And really, that's half the fun of it...

 

[muddy]

I don't think we should be second-guessing the national selectors.

etc etc

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Lee will you be in Canberra?? and whos your favourite to take out the competition?

 

[Lee Grant]

I used to go down there for the schoolboy nationals but it's a bit too far for me to drive these days.

It's pretty hard to predict the winner but NSW won it last year and their programme has been even tougher than in 2014.

The Combined side nearly beat NSW last time and this year (now called the Australian Barbarians) they arrive early in Canberra (today) to train together and play a pre-tournament game on Thursday, as the the other teams arrive. This will stand them in good stead.

Queensland were not that great last year but I believe they've had more trial games in 2015 so they should be tougher to beat this time around.

I'd have to back NSW only because they are the only team I have seen this year (apart from the ACT live and a recording of ACT v WA) and they seemed to be playing better in recent trial games than they were in 2014.

But the main thing of the tournament is its role as a selection vehicle. If the selectors see a fellow in a weaker team on the day trying his guts out, it could help his chances better than a rival swanning around in a better side.


PS - I just heard that there may be a formal announcement of the NSW U20 team today. It should be the same as the one I mentioned after the trial against Southern Districts and Norths senior sides - but you never know.
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[RugbyReg]

QLD Team named:

 

[Lee Grant]

Thanks RR,

Anybody - given the players not available, are there any surprise omissions or inclusions?
,

 

[Lee Grant]

Well, there is one surprise:

The Aus Barbarians named 26 players on 3 March:

http://www.rugby.com.au/News/NewsAr...for-2015-National-Under-20s-Championship.aspx

Which made me think 26 was the number, and that reconciled with the NSW team in their last trial and adding on the injured players and whatever.


But guess how may Queensland named on 17 March?:

http://www.redsrugby.com.au/News/Ne...ad-named-ahead-of-National-Championships.aspx

Anybody notice a discrepancy? That's right—they named only 25.

NSW was supposed to name their team on 17 March also but didn't. They will have to do so today.

How many will they pick?

Maybe the Aus Barbarians were allowed to pick one more because they have an extra game (a warm-up on Thursday)

So if NSW picks 25, my team on post #376 on 7 March has one player too many in it.
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[Hans]

Well, there is one surprise:

Snip

So if NSW picks 25, my team on post #376 on 7 March has one player too many in it.
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Based on the team listed way back on page 19, looking at the 24 boys who played down at Rockdale and the boys missing through injury or exams, they look like being one outside back heavy, or one lock/backrow heavy. There look to be two wingers on the bench at this stage in Yassmin & Davies, and with a back three of Kellaway, Hutchison & Jones, i can't see a need for 2 more wingers on the bench considering Newsome can cover the back three comfortably too, as can Deegan at Fullback if needed.

Likewise the backrow stocks look strong with McCalman, Croke, Dunbar, Hanigan, Kellaway and Kamp. Kellaway and Hanigan give second row cover, so are likely to be there, and Croke & McCalman look to be the openside pairing the coaches like, leaving Kamp possibly the one on the outer, however, there is a big lack of a genuine hard running 8, which Kamp kind of fits that bill? Given Hanigan was injured the other week and didn't play, i suspect they might take the extra backrow player, and back their utility backs to cover any losses out wide.

My guess, an outside back is in strife!

 

[Hans]

Also, in an un-NSW related matter, i read yesterday the competition report from the Australian 7's championships and noted Brad Wilkin was named player of the tournament. Any chance he might be available for QLD and/or Aus 20's?

 

[Lee Grant]

Hans - Adrian Thompson told me that Wilkin is available for the Aus 20s.

His availablity for the Qld 20s wasn't mentioned.

Your thoughts about the NSW U20s are spot on, I think. When I thought I had the NSW team nailed with 26 players it was because the Aus Barbarians had named 26 four days earlier; not 25.

Sometimes we have to make posts reading the tea leaves.
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[Hans]

Great news about Wilkin, considering his form on the 7's circuit seems to be right up there, it is going to make that no. 7 jersey even more hotly contested.

 

[Hugh Jarse]

With the Hong Kong (27/3-29/3) and Japan (4/4-5/4) rounds of the Rugby 7's circuit coming up soon, and Wilkin being the most recent player to be on a Rugby 7's contract, I'd anticipate that G. John would be keen to have him touring with the Aus 7's squad, and not playing for his state U20's at National U20 Championships.

The 2014/15 World 7's circuit finishes up in May with Glascow 9/5 - 10/5, and London (16/5 - 17/5) which will not leave too much time for Wilkin to come up to speed with Thompson's strategy and plans for the Jnr RWC if he is selected for U20's and the final legs of the 7's circuit. Our first Jnr RWC game is on 2 June vs Samoa.

 

[Lee Grant]

My guess, an outside back is in strife!

Spot on Hans: it looks like Tyson Davis is omitted from the NSW team.

He had a bad back anyway, but must have been disappointed.

It must have been between Yassmin and him, and Yaz has been in outstanding form but he missed the trial against Souths and Norths.

I feared this may have affected his chances if one from my list had to be omitted - even though it was for a non-injury reason.
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[Lee Grant]

Great news about Wilkin, considering his form on the 7's circuit seems to be right up there, it is going to make that no. 7 jersey even more hotly contested.

You are right about that Hans, because Gunn and Jack Mac are outstanding opensiders and Paragalli from the ACT is not too shabby either—and then there's the other Baas boys.

They could play with two opensiders in Italy but I think Thompson will be a bit shy now of sacrificing grunt on the blindside flank after what his teams have gone through in the last two years.

I think he will want to use fellows like Korczyk and Hanigan or other larger candidates at 6 for the big pool game, against South Africa, but it depends whether or not some big rigs put their hands up for the second row in Canberra.
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[Hugh Jarse]

Good on you for defending the "wounded" Rat @Lee Grant.

The next little chestnut to put to bed before the cows come home to roost in the chookhouse is the composition of the gameday squads.

As this tournament doubles as a selection for the National U20 squad, it is fair to assume that "usual" ARU rules will apply regarding game time in front of the Clipboards, that is all players at the tournament must start in at least one game.

Secondly the various squad coaches will select horses for courses and not necessarily name their A squad as the run on for all games. With a tight turnaround between games, the coaches will want to have their best available for the big games. They will do their analysis and give the bench players a start against teams they consider pose less threat to them. This strategy can sometimes come unstuck, and it is one of the joys of watching sport when the underdog pulls one out of the bag and defeats the favourites.

With the NSW squad more or less finalised, there will be intense competition for some positions which can only auger well for the National Selectors. There are some very high calibre candidates across all three AUS teams at prop, loose forward, #10, centre and wing. That is not to say that it will be a lay down misere for hooker, second row, #8, #9, or fullback.

I still think that NSW will "win" the tournament on the basis of what appears to be a very solid pre-season and trial schedule, but there will be no easy games with QLD and Barbars being very close behind them.

The Barbarians lack of time together as a squad may be a factor initially, but their players are not mugs, and the early game against Tonga will help them to get rid of some combination and gameplan cobwebs.

 

[Lee Grant]

I think that the coaches of the three Aussie teams will try to start their best team against the other two Aussie teams as much as is possible.

As for the Aussies in the three teams: the backs will be decent and the back three should be extraordinary. I'm not so sure about the centres because I haven't seen the non-NSW players for a while except fellows who were at school last year.

If Henry Hutchison has an extraordinary week he could move a few pieces around on the Rubic Cube of the back line - because he can play 12, 13 or wing - but he has just turned 18. He will probably be the fastest guy in Canberra too; not that that is his only attribute.

The scrummies will be handy if Short of NSW is any kind of benchmark. Dalgleish and Deegan are good game managers at 10 - and Deegan has always been good on the run for a small bloke. Then there is Toeta (Vic) who Thompson gave big wraps about to me.

I think the front row for 2015 will be better than when I thought about it after the tournament in NZ last year. It may not be as quite as good without Allan A at THP, but he was one out of the box at that age level.

I hope that Lolo F is a bruiser now for no.8; he certainly is big enough these days, but it is not the same thing. The main problem is the second row because it impinges on the 6 situation - and maybe no. 8 - who knows.

That's why I keep talking about Big Lukhan - not that I am convinced he can make if this year, because he is so raw - but because he's exactly the type of lock we need; and one can hope.
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[Rocco]

What's happened to Taniela Tupou - (Tongan Thor)? I thought he would have played for QLD U20's. Has he been released by the Reds?