2015 IRB Junior Rugby World Cup - Italy

[qwerty51]

I think the Reds have to release Magnay once they're out of playoff contention? Surely with the injured players coming back Magnay finds himself out of the 23 anyway?

 

[Lee Grant]

^^^^^^^^^^^^

On Super Rugby players who are Under 20:

The matter is discussed here:

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/78092/



On Kellaway playing 13:

Kellaway played 13 at the same tournament last year I believe but I can't recall that he ever played there for Scots in the games I saw, nor schools rep games.

People talk about his try-scoring ability finishing the work of others but one hardly every hears about his tackle busts and his ability to stay on his feet when grabbed.

He will be a superb outside centre when he gets his chance.



I wrote a blog about the NSW v Baas Under 20's game yesterday and will add a Page 2 later tonight on the Qld v Fiji game if I get around to it.

Some of the comments are from this thread but there is content from other spectators.

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/national-under-20-championship-nsw-rampant/

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[Lee Grant]

26. H Hutchison (NSW) - has wraps and another year in the system

Another two years.

Andrew Kellaway had to carry around the Under 20s Joey as the youngest player in 2014, but guess who will be carrying the Joey this year if HH and somebody else makes the team?
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[Lee Grant]

Ok, have re-read all of the posts from the games so far, and i am going to take a stab at an Aus 23, factoring in players who are likely's as well as those who appear to be performing well:

Nice tea-leave reading reading Hans.

Secret Squirrel who has seen all the games: is doing his assessment of the team as we speak.

Later.

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[FrontRowFan]

Ok, have re-read all of the posts from the games so far, and i am going to take a stab at an Aus 23, factoring in players who are likely's as well as those who appear to be performing well:

Nice go Hans, and we've got to start somewhere with reading the tea leaves, but even for those attending the games I think it's going to be a crystal ball gazing exercise.

The Australian U20s coaches will already have their squad down on paper for the Oceania Tournament in Brisbane, and how they go there will determine the final squad for the World Junior Rugby Cup in Italy. These games in Canberra are only a bit of icing on the cake and unlikely to upset their predetermined list. There will, of course, be a few players they aren't 100% sure about, and they'll be watching the boys in those positions pretty carefully, but I think it will just be a 'tidying up' exercise for the most.

My guess is that the selectors will be hard pressed not to select a good number of the NSW backs, given their form in the competition, and in all the previous hit-outs and trial matches since Christmas and the players' form before that in various Colts competitions and the World Cup squad last year.

I think this will mean they spread the selection of forwards for the squad to include more Baa Bass and Qld squad members than you might expect, given the dominance of the NSW forwards during the tournament. This will mean they end up with the politically correct spread of boys from the three squads.

The Baa Baas forwards are stronger than Qld's forwards, so expect to see them get a good representation. Then perhaps even numbers from Qld and NSW for the remainder of the forwards. Although the NSW forwards are doing a fantastic job in Canberra, I think they anyone who is not in the starting team has no chance, and a few of those in the starting lineup will be disappointed.

Where there is a toss-up between two boys of equal skill and ability, the deciding factor will come down to balancing out the selections so it's not all "Blue, Blue, Blue for NSW" in the national squad.

If there are two boys in the same position in the starting and reserve sides for NSW, the reserve will likely not be selected over a Qld or Baa Baa starting player in that same position, even if the NSW reserve player is actually a better pick. ie, a reserve prop in NSW will be overlooked for a slightly 'weaker' prop in the BB or Qld squad - it just wouldn't be a good look to select 1 and 2 in a position from NSW and none from BB or Qld.

So, looking at your stab at the squad, I think there will be more Baa Baas overall, and probably a couple more in the starting team than you have suggested. NSW is showing themselves to be far superior to the other two sides, right across the park, and the Qld and Baa Baa sides are pretty evenly matched.

So I think you have selected too many Queenslanders overall. Having said that, the selectors may well have an unconscious Qld bias and be unable to help themselves putting more Queenslanders into the mix than Baa Bass to make up the required spread, given so many NSW boys have put their hands up for certain selection.

The above is my contention. Keen for thoughts from others...

 

[qwerty51]

Quite a few ACT and WA boys last year, what's happened?

 

[I like to watch]

They turned 21?

 

[Forcefield]

Do you mean guys who were 19 last year or whose names came up in discussion? Discussion wise it has been very NSW heavy. There were a couple of returning WA 19s. Oscar Backhouse out injured. Angus Taylor is back. Tim Koiatu didn't make the Baabaas cut.

 

[Newbie]

Here is my squad.

Acknowledging that some of the players selected last year had utility, the ARU selected the squad of 28 players in the following positions:

• Props: 5
• Hookers: 2
• Locks: 3
• Back Row: 5
• S-Half: 2
• F-Half: 2
• Inside Backs: 4
• Outside Backs: 5
  
  Based on the above my selection would be what appears below. I have also taken the liberty of ranking the players in the order in which they appear (and note my NSW bias for which I am unapologetic … lol):
  
  Props - 1. Alex Mafi (QLD)***; 2. Matt Sandell (NSW); 3. Cameron Orr (NSW); 4. Aaron Pleash (QLD)
  Hookers - 1. Folau Fainga'a (NSW); 2. Connal McInnerny (Barb/ACT)
  Locks - 1. Adam Korczyk (QLD); 2. Ned Hanigan (NSW); 3. Harrison Williams (NSW); 4. Rhodda (QLD)
  Back Row – 1. Brad Wilkin (QLD)***; 2. Lolo Fakaosilea (QLD); 3. Sam Croke (NSW); 4. Jackson McCalman (NSW); 5. Undecided
  Scrum Halves - 1. Mitch Short (NSW); 2. Undecided
  Fly Halves - 1. Andrew Deegan (NSW); 2. James Dalgliesh; 3. Duncan Paia'aua (QLD)
  Inside Backs - 1. Campbell Magnay (QLD)***; 2. Redden (NSW); 3. Keith Morgan (Barb/ACT); 4. Sione Tuipulotu (Barb/ VIC)/James Tuttle (QLD)***
  Outside Backs - 1. Jonah Placid (QLD)***; 2. Andrew Kellaway (NSW); 3. Henry Hutchinson (NSW); 4. Harry Jones (NSW); 5. James Tuttle (QLD)***/Patrick James (QLD)
  
  *** If available due to injury or other representative football

 

[Hugh Jarse]

@Hans, I think you may have been too generous to teams and individuals that haven't performed at nationals. I also think that Thompson et al are actually above State/Team ratios in the Jnr RWC Squad. They will choose the best blokes that have demonstrated that they can play the gameplan that Thompson has in mind for Italy.

There will be movements, adjustments and tweaks based on injuries (typically 2 before departure) and form at the Oceania Tournament.

I'm not as optimistic as @Front Row Fan that the team is finalised in pencil and they are just using Nationals to confirm the odd question mark.

I reckon that they have locked in over 1/2 the run on team, and there is space for about 5-7 places in run on, and all the bench positions and squad members 24-28 are up for grabs at Nationals with most of them having 2 or more names penciled in for each of those spots.

@Newbie, That's not a bad squad you have assembled, and there is only a couple of spots where I would suggest that other candidates may be chosen. The problem for the lads you named and that I agree with is that my batting average for tipping squads is not all that good.

 

[Newbie]

HJ,

Like you I agree that ratios will be put to the sword. Notwithstanding the Baabaa's two defeats I have still selected certain players in my positions because they didn't play too bad in losing teams.

Admittedly there are some players at the Champs that I was considering for selection and they include for example Fereti Sa'aga and Duncan Paia'aua. However they don't even seem to be able to make the run on sides of their respective teams which has me thinking 'FORM' or the lack thereof!

Can anyone in the know comment on this? I been keen to hear your thoughts!

After reading the other selections I like what @Hans has assembled (especially his rationale - I wish I'd done the same). I did particularly like the comment someone made about Kellaway at centre. Placid, if available, will easily take the fullback spot and Kellaway will be wasted on the wing!

 

[Lee Grant]

Secret Squirrel has added his likely squad to the U20s blog:

http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/national-under-20-championship-nsw-rampant/

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[FrontRowFan]

/snip/ I also think that Thompson et al are actually above State/Team ratios in the Jnr RWC Squad. They will choose the best blokes that have demonstrated that they can play the gameplan that Thompson has in mind for Italy.

Yes, perhaps I was too strong on that line of thought. But my main point is that where there is a choice between two blokes of roughly equal skill and ability, they will tend to choose a forward from Qld/BB rather than NSW, given the plethora of NSW backs who will be gimmies for the squad. So, not picking a player based on ratios, but picking based on ratios when there is only a hair's breadth between the players.

I'm not as optimistic as @Front Row Fan that the team is finalised in pencil and they are just using Nationals to confirm the odd question mark.

I reckon that they have locked in over 1/2 the run on team, and there is space for about 5-7 places in run on, and all the bench positions and squad members 24-28 are up for grabs at Nationals with most of them having 2 or more names penciled in for each of those spots.

Do you seriously think they haven't been writing down draft teams / reserves lists (1-28) since the beginning of the year, or perhaps as soon as they got the coaching gig? If Gagerlanders are doing it now, I can bet you a keg of Four-X they've been doing it harder and longer than we have...

 

[Hugh Jarse]

Not taking any bet for XXXX. Very very ordinary beer. Now if you were talking a keg of Young Henry's or 4 Pines Pale Ale then ... ... ... ...

I reckon their draft teams have had the same 8 or 9 blokes in them since they started. The other 6 or 7 positions would have 2, 3 or 4 names against them, most likely the second row, back row and centres. Same for the balance of the squad, nos 16 to 28. Anyone at Nationals has a good chance of making the final camp for Oceania Tournament if they constantly display better form than the competitors similarly penciled in for that slot.

I think that we are in heated agreement.

 

[Newbie]

... ... ... ... ... ... Do you seriously think they haven't been writing down draft teams / reserves lists (1-28) since the beginning of the year, or perhaps as soon as they got the coaching gig? If Gagerlanders are doing it now, I can bet you a keg of Four-X they've been doing it harder and longer than we have.

I too agree that there would have been a 'possibles/probables' squad selected long ago. Furthermore, and as we all know, each state/territory where the players are presently living would have been strictly monitoring performance on and off the field (i.e. fitness, skin folds, etc.).

For mine a national championship is generally about seeing if the probables are now 'certainties'; and to determine if 'any possibles have displaced 'probables' (e.g., Nick Kellaway).

The other aspect is where the tournament uncovers a hidden gem that has otherwise never been on the ARU radar! A bolter for want of a better term!

PS: Ditto Re HJ's sentiments on XXXX ... LOL

 

[Hans]

Here is my squad.

Acknowledging that some of the players selected last year had utility, the ARU selected the squad of 28 players in the following positions:

• Props: 5
• Hookers: 2
• Locks: 3
• Back Row: 5
• S-Half: 2
• F-Half: 2
• Inside Backs: 4
• Outside Backs: 5
  
  Based on the above my selection would be what appears below. I have also taken the liberty of ranking the players in the order in which they appear (and note my NSW bias for which I am unapologetic … lol):
  
  Props - 1. Alex Mafi (QLD)***; 2. Matt Sandell (NSW); 3. Cameron Orr (NSW); 4. Aaron Pleash (QLD)
  Hookers - 1. Folau Fainga'a (NSW); 2. Connal McInnerny (Barb/ACT)
  Locks - 1. Adam Korczyk (QLD); 2. Ned Hanigan (NSW); 3. Harrison Williams (NSW); 4. Rhodda (QLD)
  Back Row – 1. Brad Wilkin (QLD)***; 2. Lolo Fakaosilea (QLD); 3. Sam Croke (NSW); 4. Jackson McCalman (NSW); 5. Undecided
  Scrum Halves - 1. Mitch Short (NSW); 2. Undecided
  Fly Halves - 1. Andrew Deegan (NSW); 2. James Dalgliesh; 3. Duncan Paia'aua (QLD)
  Inside Backs - 1. Campbell Magnay (QLD)***; 2. Redden (NSW); 3. Keith Morgan (Barb/ACT); 4. Sione Tuipulotu (Barb/ VIC)/James Tuttle (QLD)***
  Outside Backs - 1. Jonah Placid (QLD)***; 2. Andrew Kellaway (NSW); 3. Henry Hutchinson (NSW); 4. Harry Jones (NSW); 5. James Tuttle (QLD)***/Patrick James (QLD)
  
  *** If available due to injury or other representative football

Big fan of this rationale, and as quoted by the honorable @HJ, i am hopeful the selectors will look beyond the quotas and such and will take the best available. I suspect the wider training group that is selected will have some of the injured bodies not there, such as the Tuttle's of the world.

Today's match up will be a great one with some spots on the line one would think! Good luck to both teams (but especially NSW).

 

[Hans]

@Newbie, is James Tuttle an outside back or a halfback, i had him down as a 9?

 

[FrontRowFan]

Here is my squad.

Acknowledging that some of the players selected last year had utility, the ARU selected the squad of 28 players in the following positions:

I thought Mafi was a hooker?

 

[Lee Grant]

I thought Mafi was a hooker?

And a very good one.

He is the kind of fellow who could be picked for the Oceania tournament camp though not playing in the nationals, even though he is still in his U/19 year. He played for Aus Schools in his U/17 year; so he plays above his age, but my main concern about him is that he is injured too often.
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[Lee Grant]

Are there any Queensland people out there?

Helloooooooooooooo !!!!

Anybody in Canberra to tell us who is doing well there - or has got news of form etc.
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