2012 Super Rugby Finals top 6 predictions

[light]

Further to this post and qwerty's too, these may be the table as to points but the top three places are reserved; one for each conference. So in Light's case the order is 1. Blues 2. Reds 3. Stormers 4. Crusaders 5. Waratahs 6. Sharks

(Bloody pedant, should have been drowned at birth)

Thanks for the correction, I should learn not to post on Saturday's.

 

[p.Tah]

This is proving near impossible to predict. Some stats from the last few weeks:

• 74% of games have had a losing bonus point
• The average score difference has been 8.5 points. Take out the Reds blow out against the Bulls and it's 7.2 points
• 35% of games have been decided by 3 or less points
• 18% (nearly 1 in 5) games have been decided by 1 point.

 

[Braveheart81]

At this stage it would seem that you will need less points to make the finals than you have needed previously.

 

[Jnor]

This is proving near impossible to predict. Some stats from the last few weeks:

• 74% of games have had a losing bonus point
• The average score difference has been 8.5 points. Take out the Reds blow out against the Bulls and it's 7.2 points
• 35% of games have been decided by 3 or less points
• 18% (nearly 1 in 5) games have been decided by 1 point.

And this is how I justify my incredibly shit tipping, thank you

 

[Slim 293]

Just past a quarter of the way through the competition...

Soon we'll probably start to see a few teams clear away from the pack, along with the traditional rise of the Crusaders...

The Highlanders may have peaked too early and now without Slade could be in a bit of trouble...

The Australian conference could only wind up with one team in the finals with the Reds' injuries, the Brumbies yet to face a number of tough opponents, and the Tahs providing their typical Tahs' performances...

 

[barbarian]

Current market from Sportingbet:

Crusaders - $3.75
Stormers - $6
Reds - $7
Bulls, Chiefs - $9
Highlanders - $10
Blues - $11
Waratahs - $12
Sharks - $14
Canes - $26
Brumbies - $51
Force - $101
Cheetahs - $151
Lions - $201
Rebels- $201

God knows what to make of that. Think the Crusaders are a little short. Like the Chiefs at $9, and think the Tahs are probably value at $12 but that's just my obvious provincial bias shining through.

.

 

[ripper868]

I'll probably take the Cheetahs at $201 instead of the Cheetahs at $151

Think The Bulls and Chiefs show good value there.

 

[suckerforred]

Thinking the Brums might be worth a few bob...

 

[Badger]

The Brumbies could be the dark horse bet.

The bonus points the Tahs have accumulated to date could come in very handy at the end of the season.

 

[Bruce Ross]

Current market from Sportingbet:

Crusaders - $3.75
Stormers - $6
Reds - $7
Bulls, Chiefs - $9
Highlanders - $10
Blues - $11
Waratahs - $12
Sharks - $14
Canes - $26
Brumbies - $51
Force - $101
Cheetahs - $151
Lions - $201
Rebels- $201

If we assume that the Force, Cheetahs, Lions and Rebels are not in contention we can exclude them and their matches from consideration. We then have 11 teams to examine:

New Zealand
Crusaders on 14 points have beaten Blues but lost to Highlanders and Chiefs
Chiefs on 18 points have beaten Blues, Crusaders and Brumbies but lost to Highlanders
Highlanders on 17 points have beaten Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs and Hurricanes but lost to Brumbies
Blues on 6 points have beaten Bulls but lost to Crusaders, Chiefs, Stormers and Hurricanes
Hurricanes on 15 points have beaten Blues but lost to Stormers and Highlanders

South Africa
Stormers on 20 points have beaten Hurricanes, Sharks and Blues
Bulls on 19 points have beaten Sharks and Reds but lost to Blues
Sharks on 12 points have beaten Reds but lost to Bulls, Stormers and Waratahs

Australia
Reds on 13 points have beaten Waratahs but lost to Sharks and Bulls
Waratahs on 13 points have beaten Sharks but lost to Reds and Highlanders
Brumbies on 17 points have beaten Highlanders but lost to Chiefs

The Chiefs and the Highlanders have had some good wins and on the basis of revealed form both seem to be well in contention for finals spots. New Zealand has a good chance of getting three into the finals with the Crusaders likely to be one of them but at $3.75 they do not appear to be good value. It is surprising to see the Blues well in the market given the points start they are conceding. I would sooner be laying them than backing them at those odds.

The Stormers and Bulls appear to have strong chances to make the six but the Sharks seem to be a little off the pace.

The top three Australian sides have not done much so far and the automatic conference spot is there for the taking. It is still quite possible for two of the teams to make the finals.

The coming few weeks are likely to produce a clearer picture.
.

 

[Slim 293]

I don't want to get too over excited about the Brumbies chances because...

A) they've yet to play against a lot if top drawer teams. Let's not forget that our only major win has been against the Highlanders... Despite the positive aspects of our play...

B). We've had a decent run with injuries... And that could still change...

Regardless, berry happy with how we're traveling....

 

[Slim 293]

Beer + iPhone

 

[RedsHappy]

Bruce, just to add a note: it's when all the full 'play away' cycles really start to happen for every team and we see who conquers who from that, that, typically, the S15 men are sorted from the S15 boys, so to speak.

Last year IIRC the Reds won 3 out of 4 away games and took the points from the top tier Stormers, this really worked them up the ladder as, comparatively, many of their competitors did a bit or a lot less well away.

I liked yr earlier post re 'keep calm everyone, much to play for yet'. Just remember though that the Reds topped the table pre Finals last year by having lost only 3 games. If any team in 2012 starts to lose multiple games in first half April and where they have lost a few already (like say the Reds and Tahs), then things will likely get very hard for them later as the implied w-l % ratio needed for the later games really climbs up, unless many other top teams have large numbers of genuine upsets and so all the leaders are dragged down in points relativity at about the same time, etc.

This very long w-l interdependency cycle and the very different comp winning scenarios it throws up is one of the many aspects of the world of S15 that I relish.