QLD GPS Rugby 2012

[light]

yeah but those churchie players in firsts are 'new'. its not as if the churchie 16As have lost players from their 15As team last year, because all of these boys playing firsts are new into churchie this year. needless to say, their 16As side is very formidable and the BGS side is severely depleted. will be a tough game for bgs

Very true. Going to be quite a strong team in 2012 considering all QLD U16 rep players are members of the 16A team and not the 1sts.

 

[dleezy02]

very valid points made Light.
Next year seems to be promising though with good group of lads in the 16's with great work ethic.
Adam Korczyk (2nd row) has played nearly every game this year with the firsts and has been one of the standouts in a forward pack which features great talent. Logan Tibbetts who has played every game this year in the firsts has also been a startling revelation, starting at 10 during the beginning of season but now appearing on the wing, Arguably the best performing back in the side, has been consistent and scored a scintillating try against Southport in the dying seconds to secure victory. Both of these talents in yr 11
Sala, Loukaras, Matthews, Kendall, Lhota have also seen time with the firsts and are looking great with the added experience.
Next year is looking promising for state high however Light's comments are very valid.
However the one thing i can see hindering BSHS 1stXV next year is the lack of depth with a weak 15's age group,

 

[Thomas]

The 16As results are not a good reflection on were Grammar will finish as most of their talent is either in the firsts or injured.

 

[Harpy]

GT Firsts will go much better than second last. A win against BGS is foreseeable as the corresponding battle in 15's was very tight. I'd predict GT to beat BGS, TGS, BBC, ACGS (the 16A game was tight for most of the game last week, with terrace running a second string backline to what they will have next year) and have a tight game with Ipswich and TSS.

GT will definitely not beat ACGS next year. Churchie have too many quality players, many of whom are in grade 11 and already playing first XV. also BGS will most likely defeat GT next year, with the return of Lakehm Aiono to a side that finished 3rd in U15s that has since been bolstered by Josh Birch from Bundaberg and Jack Cornelsen and Cody Blackhurst who moved from TSS. Wins against BBC and TGS are foreseeable for Terrace though.

 

[Swarley]

Lakehm Aiono has been at BGS since Grade 8, as have 1st XV players Lewis Radford (14), Hugo Starr-Thomas (12), Michael Gilbert (6) and Nick Anderson (1). The same goes for Andrew Saunders (Utility backrow), who has played a few games for the 1st XV this year with Levi Aumua out. New Hooker Cody Blackhurst was not imported by the school, he moved to BGS for game time after TSS No.2 Campbell Wakely decided to repeat. As for Josh Birch and Jack Cornelson though, I'm not too sure on the details. Grammar are certainly looking strong for 2012 though:

1. Cody Blackhurst- Current 1st XV hooker
2. Alistair Harper- 1st XV bench
3. Nick Anderson- Current 1st XV
4. -
5. Jack Cornelson- Current 1st XV
6. Michael Gilbert- Current 1st XV
7. Andrew Saunders- 1st XV vs. Churchie and BBC
8. Lakehm Aiono- Injured 2011
9. -
10. -
11. -
12. Hugo-Starr Thomas- Current 1st XV
13. Josh Birch- Injured 2011
14. -
15. Lewis Radford- Current 1st XV winger

 

[light]

ACGS 2012
1. -
2. -
3. -
4. -
5. -
6. Digger MacMillan - 1st XV 2011 vs. NC,BBC, GT.
7. Michael Gunn - 1st XV 2011 - Qld U15 2010
8. Lachlan Oppenheimer - 1st XV 2010/11
9. Darcy Eason- 1st XV 2011- GPS 2
10. James Watson - 1st XV 2011 vs. TSS,BBC,GT,BGS
11. Alex West - 1st XV 2011 vs. BGS
12.
13. Monty Ioane - 1st XV 2011 - GPS 2
14. Dean Van Heteren - 1st XV 2011 - GPS 3
15. Owain Davies XV 2011

Reserves
Outside Back: Moses Clarke - 16A's
Inside Back: Angus McClanahan - 16A's - Qld U15 2010
6/7/8: Sebastian Georgiou - 1st XV vs. TSS - Qld U15 2010

Obviously missing half a forward pack, but that backrow and backline will cause damage. That only includes 2 promotions from 16A's

 

[Dark Shark]

The 15's for state high come last nearly every year, there is no point in trying to compare teams with them.

The BSHS 15A side is not that bad as score reflects. Some very strong and mobile loose forwards with some pace on the wings. I heard that they just didn't "turn up" when they travelled up the range last Saturday. BSHS seem to have a fairly strong 14's side and I do not think they will miss a beat in 2013 (probably top three)

Also, the TGS side is being coached by the previous TGS First XV coach and has a very strong backline. They got dusted the week before by NC, but were short in two backline positions that NC just targeted all day.

Maybe getting ahead of myself here, but the real deal in 2013 will be NC. The current 15A team has been undefeated in GPS rugby for the last three years and will only be getting stronger.

 

[light]

NC are always up for contention, I think this year and 2013 they will fancy themselves for the title (obviously this year they are relying on ACGS to lose). Judging by the amount of recruiting ACGS, IGS and BGS have done for next year I think the competition will go down to the wire between those three. NC and TSS to cause a few upsets and State High won't be as strong as expected but mid-table or thereabouts. However 2013, will be a completely different competition once the anti-scholarship rules are put in place. BGS, ACGS, IGS will be recovering from tremendous seasons in 2012 and suffering for going for broke. NC, TSS and BSHS to all rebound nicely, TGS to be up the top and GT to have found a way out of the cellar.

I know it's early to predict and I can cop the criticism for this post, but the early signs are there for this to be the only justifiable prediction.

 

[Thomas]

To early to be talking about 2013.

 

[light]

Got your years a little muddled up but all in all a good post, GTjack. Interesting predictions, I'd give my whole justification and positionings for next year but I really haven't looked into what teams are retaining players and whatnot so off the top of my head here goes. Single sentence justification, I'm lazy and too pumped for the Waratahs match to think anymore than that..
1. ACGS - Recruiting to finally pay off, ACGS's has put every ounce of their energy into a 2012 premiership.
Players to keep an eye on: Eason, Oppenheimer, Gunn.
2. NC - Consistently good, won't lose to anyone other than ACGS, expect a good point differential
Players to keep an eye on: Tuttle, Shipperly, Anae
3. BSHS - Lack the stars of 2011 but still have quality to maintain top 3.
Players to keep an eye on: Korczyk, Tibbetts
4. IGS - Sold structures in place, great depth, just lack the killer punch to take premiership. Darkhorse team for mine
Players to keep an eye on: Preen, Hayes, Takau
5. TSS - Always strong, lack skill of previous years but don't expect them near the bottom anytime soon
Players to keep an eye on: Thirdd, Barrett, Duncan
6. BGS - Heavy recruiting, losses of Davies and Greene will be a heavy burden on a team with plenty potential
Players to keep an eye on: Gilbert, Harper, Cornelson
7. GT - Rebound year as you say, decent 16A age group, should pick up early wins.
Players to keep an eye on: Given, Dagliesh, Mellor
8. TGS - Stronger than previous years, expect them to be competitive and cause an upset, lack the firepower and depth to challenge the top teams.
9. BBC - Rugby program doesn't look to be going anywhere fast.

 

[light]

And to give my reasons for Nudgee College not winning next year.
Losses of the following: #1 Kaituu (GPS 2), #3 Maloney (GPS 1), #2 Postal (Chairmans XV), #7 Satui (GPS 1, QLD 1), #8 McMahon (GPS 1), #9 Gale (GPS 1), #10 Brittain (GPS 1), #14 Stewart (GPS 2), #15 Hunt (GPS 1).

You can't replace that talent.

 

[gtjack]

cause that wasn't a biase prediction
1. Nudgee COllege
2. Churchie
3. Brisbane Grammar
4. TSS
5. State High
6. Ipswich
7. TGS
8. Terrace- Need to bring in new players
9. BBC weak age group who will struggle

And that wasn't any less biased...

Anybody who puts Terrace lower than 5th is in for a rude surprise. Grammar at 3 is ridiculous, their 16A's are probably the worst A grade side I've ever seen play. Sure they've got a few decent pieces in the firsts, but unless a heap of players are bought in Grammar will be lucky to get 5th. Terrace at 8th is ridiculous, this is a strong age group for them - 9 players have played at firsts level from 16's this year. They've beaten Toowoomba every year they've played them except for this year, with a weakened side, so I don't see how you can possibly rate them lower. Grammar will have to get incredibly lucky or alot of new players, to go higher than 6th. If Michael Gilbert is one of the key pieces in a first xv, you've got issues.

 

[fourgreatkids]

ok i will admit terrace could finish as high as 7th. I just think they lack depth and firepower. There 16as are weak. There 9 players in yr 11 have not really been stand outs, in fact in a stronger age group there would be very few that i think could be in the firsts. As for Grammar, they currently have 7 and could have been more if injuries werent to Key Players, Josh Birch and Lakehm Aiono, but so does churchie. As for Grammar's 16's, you take out those 7 players, plus their halfback who was benching for firsts, you would think they would be significantly weaker. And i reckon Michael Gilbert is key, he is their current lineout caller and has some dominant carries, does struggle at times against the older blokes but could do well next year. I think GT will improve significantly on this year, but not to the extent you are talking

 

[fourgreatkids]

my Bgs team would look like this:
1. Nick Anderson (current 1stXV prop)
2. Alister Harper (Current 1stXV reserve hooker)
3. Cody BlackHurst (current 1stXV hooker- GPS 3)
4. TBA
5.TBA
6. Michael Gilbert (Current 1stXV Flanker/2nd Row)
7. Andrew Saunders (1st XV vs GT, BBC and Churchie)
8. Jack Cornelson ( Current 1stXV 2nd row- GPS 2)
9. Sam Burke(Injured 16a halfback)/ Dugie hill (Current 2nd XV halfback)
10. TBA
11. Jordan Innes (16A Winger)/ Tre * do not know his last name but 15a's Fullback
12. Lakehm Aiono (Injured Queensland League and UNion)
13. Josh Birch (Injured AUstralian League)
14. Lewis Radford (Current 1stXV winger)
15. Hugo Starr-thomas ( Current 1st XV Inside centre and fullback)

 

[Swarley]

I personally think that Tom Branch is neck in neck with Trey Kemp. Branch is faster and stronger, a better tackler and is more aggressive, but Trey has a better skill set (catching, kicking, passing) and he is bigger.

Wouldn't it be best to keep Cornelson at lock and have Lakehm Aiono play 8?

 

[fourgreatkids]

better to have a big ball runner like Aiono at 12, got all the skills and will attract alot of attention from opposing defenders. I'd say Jordan Innes is above Trey Kemp though

 

[gtjack]

ok i will admit terrace could finish as high as 7th. I just think they lack depth and firepower. There 16as are weak. There 9 players in yr 11 have not really been stand outs, in fact in a stronger age group there would be very few that i think could be in the firsts. As for Grammar, they currently have 7 and could have been more if injuries werent to Key Players, Josh Birch and Lakehm Aiono, but so does churchie. As for Grammar's 16's, you take out those 7 players, plus their halfback who was benching for firsts, you would think they would be significantly weaker. And i reckon Michael Gilbert is key, he is their current lineout caller and has some dominant carries, does struggle at times against the older blokes but could do well next year. I think GT will improve significantly on this year, but not to the extent you are talking

It can't be said that the Terrace 16A's are weak, especially compared to Grammar's. A 29-5 win in a game with a ref giving Grammar a penalty every 2 minutes. Sure, there might be alot of 11's playing up from Grammar, but injuries will hit and there's no depth.

Terrace has great depth in this age group, 5 guys in the Firsts every game and injuries have depleted the 16A's, especially in the backs, where someone from the 15D's last year has had to step up and play numerous positions. There's only 1 guy in the backline who played 15A's, both because of firsts and injuries. Yet the 16A's were able to hang with Churchie for 45 minutes, leading at half time, were able to hold State High to kicking only penalty goals after the first 10 minutes, and had a narrow loss to Toowoomba in a game they were the superior team. Ignore them next year at your own peril, especially with match winners like Power, Given and Dalgleish rejoining the team.

 

[Swarley]

6. BGS - Heavy recruiting, losses of Davies and Greene will be a heavy burden on a team with plenty potential
Players to keep an eye on: Gilbert, Harper, Cornelson

Light, I don't think Grammar will be doing 'heavy recruiting', per se. They never have, and there's no reason to suggest they'll do it next year. I concede that BGS has given some scholarships, however never more than 2 per year and these have never been full scholarships. They've already got the bulk of next years team either playing 1st XV or on the bench (not including Joshua Birch and Lakehm Aiono, who would certainly being starting if not for season-ending injuries), with the biggest positional uncertainties resting at #3 and #10. Nobody's sure yet whether GPS 3 hooker Cody Blackhurst will move to Tighthead next year, promoting Alistair Harper from the bench, or whether Grammar will recruit. U15a's Tighthead Stuart McReight is another possibility, a 5'10, 97kg member of the Junior Reds setup. A bit small at this stage, but a growth spurt could see him in contention. Personally, I'm assuming Grammar will look to recruit a prop. Flyhalf is another open spot, with Grant Davies and Sam Greene in their final year. This years inside centre/fullback Hugo Starr-Thomas has experience at #10, but I think he'll be filling the custodian role next year. Nick Traves and Andrew Stower have been playing there for the 16a's this year, but once again I'm thinking a new recruit is likely.

BGS's 15a's are a very small team, with no real 'big names' pushing for selection next year. No. 8 and skipper Tom Spencer has a phenomenal workrate, plays a lot like an Openside Flanker, but faces stiff competition from Andrew Saunders, Michael Gilbert, Jack Cornelson, Alistair Harper, Lakehm Aiono and Nigel Wenck. A few positional reshuffles could see him playing in the Oxford jersey for the 2012 season, as Aiono can play Inside Centre and both Cornelson and Gilbert can play at lock. He has gained Metropolitan North selection this year and is a very dedicated player. The only other forward I see as a possibility is Stuart McReight, who I've already discussed. From the backline, Ferg Halliday has been playing Inside Centre yet plays Halfback for the Junior Reds, Metropolitan North and Brisbane North, captaining the latter team as well. Behind Sam Burke at the moment, but I'm guessing he'll be thereabouts come the 2012 season. Flyhalf Matt Marsden has all the skills- pin-point passing, a long and short kicking game, determination, strength, technically sound tackling and defensive positioning and a sub- 12sec 100m time. His biggest flaw (and it is substantial) is his size, well under 5'8 and a small weight. Couldn't possibly handle the physical pressure of 1st XV level, but once again a growth spurt could see him in contention. As far as outside backs go, I've already spoken about Trey Kemp and Tom Branch, boys with different playing styles and strengths/weaknesses. But, agreeing with fourgreatkids on this one, both behind Jordan Innes at the moment. The 15a's are somewhat of an enigma, with comprehensive victories against GT, ACGS and BBC, yet falling to pieces against other schools. The success they've achieved this year has come on the back of great teamwork, with few champion players, rather a team of workhorses. It's very true to suggest that this 15a's side's total is greater than the value of it's pieces.

 

[light]

I still stand by them not making top 5. Lack the discipline and finishing touch that the heavyweights have. No doubt Grammar are improving and that is a very strong side, but to win a premiership, the school needs tremendous depth and skill in it's starting XV. Grammar are a skilful bunch and expect them to easily breeze past the lesser teams in the comp, but to claim top 3 they would need to be consistently good and able to close teams out (i.e inability to do so demonstrated against ACGS this year). TSS, ACGS, NC, BSHS and IGS will all fancy their chances against Grammar next year and I think without established and proven 9/10/12/15's they won't match it with the heavyweights (the step from 16A's to 1st XV is huge, and I don't believe any other 10's or 15's have had 1st XV experience?).

I would be more than happy to be proven wrong, but the BGS bias in this thread is a little too much. I think some maybe getting too far ahead of themselves.

 

[Swarley]

light

I understand where you're coming from Light, I really do. I'm not one of the ones suggesting Grammar are going to win premiership, not even saying they'll secure a podium finish, but I do think 4th or 5th is well within reach. I agree, the lack of an established #10 is going to really hurt Grammar, but Damon Emtage and Julian Gardner have been building a squad with great depth and experience, including plenty of fringe players from the 16's age group, giving them game time and training experience wherever possible. In fact, just this week a group of 6 15a's players were invited to opens training, just to get a feel for the top level. Hugo Starr-Thomas will likely play #15, and if not him it will likely be current #11 Lewis Radford, so plenty of experience there. I'm thinking Grammar will try and find a #10 from elsewhere, and if it plays out like it did for Grant Davies the lack of Grammar experience shouldn't be any issue. Emtage has worked wonders with the Grammar backline over the last two years, and even managed to cover the loss of Davies against IGS, still managing to win.
What do you define as key positions, Light? And how are the other contenders (NC, BSHS, ACGS, TSS, IGS) looking in these positions?