Preview: R13 Sunwolves vs Reds

The St George Queensland Reds travel to Tokyo for the first time to play the Sunwolves.  Both teams are coming off a bye and are desperate for a win.  Will the Sunwolves jag their first win of the season or will the Reds go back to back?

Whilst it may not have the appeal of a NZ derby this weekends match between the Reds and the Sunwolves is shaping to be a really intriguing contest.  The home team are yet to register a win this season and are languishing on the bottom of the ladder.  The Reds have been up and down and after a strong start to the season, have struggled to now be sitting in the middle of the Australian conference, two wins off the top.  With their win over the then competition leaders the Lions before the bye, they kept an ever tenuous grip on the Rebels and Waratahs and another win this week could potentially see them officially back in touch with the top of the conference.  It’s a strange old competition, Super Rugby.

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 Why should I bother?

Why should you bother?  Easy.  Because you love it.  Face it, if you’re reading this then chances are your affliction isn’t curable.  It may be tough to hear but it’s your truth.  Embrace it. I had a quick look at some stats (thanks Opta Sports) whilst writing this and based solely on them, I’m not sure either team can win.  I was surprised to learn that the Sunwolves are yet to beat an Australian team.  They are the only nation that they are yet to beat.  Less surprising is the fact that the Reds have lost 20 of their past 22 away matches.  The Sunwolves (2.6) are scoring more tries per game than the Reds (2.1) but are conceding nearly twice as many tries per game (SUN 6.2 / RED 3.9).  In the few victories for the Reds this season, discipline has played a big part.  Well, the ledger in this match is almost equal with the Sunwolves conceding the fewest penalties per game of the comp; the Reds are conceding the second fewest.

Key match ups

Filipo Daugunu vs Hosea Saumaki

One of the big positives for both the Reds and the Sunwolves would have to be the discovery of these two guys.  Daugunu for the Reds has been exceptional.  Excellent feet and an ability to shed tacklers and then burn defenders with sheer pace.  He’s not just a finisher, he’s started plenty of tries of his own too.  Saumaki is the leading try scorer for the Sunwolves.  He’s quick and powerful but has a brilliant offloading game.  If you don’t believe me, have a look at his performance against the Lions.

Hamish Stewart vs Semisi Masirewa

This one isn’t so much about the match-up.  I’ve gotta be honest, I’m just excited to see young Hamish Stewart starting for the second match in a row.  I was in two minds about what to do about Jono Lance being fit again.  Then i remembered that it wasn’t up to me when Thorn made it clear that when fit, Lance would start at 10.  Hamish playing fullback could prove to be a wonderful move.  Whilst Aidan’s left boot has been useful, I really think his down sides are outweighing his up sides at the moment.  He seems lazy and at times almost unwilling in defence and his option taking has been very poor.  Hamish gives us more starch in defence and can join the line as a second play maker.  His booming boot should also be an asset. Embed from Getty Images

 

Fearless Prediction

This was harder than I first thought it would be.  Don’t let their 0 and 9 record fool you, the Sunwolves are no easy beats.  They kept with the Hurricanes in Wellington for most of the match before 3 rapid fire tries sunk them. I really think though, it will come down to which Reds team turn up on the day.  The immense first half vs the Lions Reds or the woeful rabble that barely fired a shot against the Tahs Reds.  I’m tipping it will be the former and the Reds by 10.

Match Details