The road home - Super rugby 2014

[gel]

I thought I would summarise the road home for the various teams and have a quick look at their likely yields for the balance of the season. This season is really difficult to pick - with upsets galore and a virtually impenetrable barrier in the Indian ocean and unusually high home advantage.

I really think that the Stormers will come good. It is a worry that the coach has pretty much said that he has no idea, but really they have had a horror start to the tourney, and could well have won a few more and the table would be vastly different. I think they have a reasonable run home now. Conversely, I think the lions run will end - they have a pretty tough away tour ahead, and I really don't think they have the experience or the referees able to carry it off.

I am guessing the crusaders will have a bit of charge based on nothing but a gut feeling, but who knows :?

I have probably given a few too many bonus points as well, but this year there seems to be quite a few close games - so I have presumed that it will continue.

(I think I have the games summarised properly - but if I haven't then please let me know. Very iffy on the math at the moment too. A little bit bit dozy.)

Aus Conference:

Brumbies - Bye, Chiefs(H), Saders(A), Sharks(H), Cheetahs(A), Bulls(A), Rebels(H), Tahs(A), Bye, Force(H), 5 wins + 2 bonus pts = 22pts
Waratahs - Bulls(H), Blues(A), Canes(H), Bye, Lions(H), Rebels(A), Chiefs(A), Brumbies(H), Highlanders(H), Reds(A), 5wins + 3 bonus pts = 23pts
Force - Rebels(A), Bulls(H), Bye, Cheetahs(A), Stormers(A), Lions(H), Saders(A), Blues(H), Reds(H), Brumbies(A), 3 wins + 3 bonus pts = 15pts
Reds - Bye, Canes(A), Blues(A), Saders(H), Rebels(H), Bye, Highlanders(H), Rebels(A), Force(A), Tahs(H), 4wins + 3 bonus pts = 19pts
Rebels - Force(H), Bye, Sharks(H), Canes(H), Reds(A), Tahs(H), Brumbies(A), Reds(H), Lions(A), Bulls(A), 2 wins + 2 bonus pts = 10pts

NZ Conference:

Chiefs - Saders(H), Brumbies(A), Lions(H), Blues(H), Bye, Canes(A), Tahs(H), Highlanders(A), Canes(H), Blues(A), 6 wins + 4 bonus pts = 28pts
Highlanders - Bye, Sharks(A), Stormers(A), Lions(H), Canes(A), Saders(H), Reds(A), Chiefs(H), Tahs(A), Saders(A), 3 wins + 2 bonus pts = 14pts
Crusaders - Chiefs(A), Bye, Brumbies(H), Reds(A), Sharks(H), Highlanders(A), Force(H), Canes(A), Blues(H), Highlanders(H), 7 wins + 3 bonus pts = 31pts
Hurricanes - Blues(H), Reds(H), Tahs(A), Rebels(A), Highlanders(H), Chiefs(H), Blues(A), Saders(H), Chiefs(A), Bye, 4wins + 3 bonus pts = 19pts
Blues - Canes(A), Tahs(H), Reds(H), Chiefs(A), Bye, Sharks(H), Canes(H), Force(A), Saders(A), Chiefs(H), 5wins + 3 bonus pts = 23pts

SA Conference:

Sharks - Cheetahs(H), Highlanders(H), Rebels(A), Brumbies(A), Saders(A), Blues(A), Stormers(H), Cheetahs(A), Stormers(A), 5wins + 2 bonus pts = 22pts
Bulls - Tahs(A), Force(A), Cheetahs(H), Stormers(H), Bye, Brumbies(H), Lions(A), Stormers(A), Rebels(H), 6 wins + 2 bonus pts = 26pts
Lions - Stormers(A), Bye, Chiefs(A), Highlanders(A), Tahs(A), Force(A), Bulls(H), Rebels(H), Cheetahs(H), 2 wins + 2 bonus pts = 10pts
Cheetahs - Sharks(A), Stormers(H), Bulls(A), Force(H), Brumbies(H), Stormers(A), Bye, Sharks(H), Lions(A), 2 wins + 2 bonus pts = 10pts
Stormers - Lions(H), Cheetahs(A), Highlanders(H), Bulls(A), Force(H), Cheetahs(H), Sharks(A), Bulls(H), Sharks(H), 5 wins + 2 bonus pts = 22pts

Sharks 27 + 22 = 49
Brumbies 25 +22 = 47
Chiefs 24 + 28 = 52
Force 22 + 15 = 37
Waratahs 20 + 23 = 43
Highlanders 19 + 14 = 33
Crusaders 18 + 31 = 49
Bulls 18 + 26 = 44
Lions 16 + 10 = 26
Hurricanes 16 + 19 = 35
Blues 16 + 23 = 39
Reds 16 + 19 = 35
Rebels 12 + 10 = 22
Cheetahs 9 + 10 = 19
Stormers 6 + 22 = 28

Which will mean that the Log may look something like:

Chiefs 24 + 28 = 52
Sharks 27 + 22 = 49
Brumbies 25 +22 = 47

Crusaders 18 + 31 = 49
Bulls 18 + 26 = 44
Waratahs 20 + 23 = 43

Blues 16 + 23 = 39
Force 22 + 15 = 37
Hurricanes 16 + 19 = 35
Reds 16 + 19 = 35
Highlanders 19 + 14 = 33
Stormers 6 + 22 = 28
Lions 16 + 10 = 26
Rebels 12 + 10 = 22
Cheetahs 9 + 10 = 19

I think the most difficult thing to predict is those teams that come to the point where they know they can't make it and start to play like complete arse or carefree gods.

What do you guys and gals think?

 

[Pfitzy]

I used to set up spreadsheets for these things. Then figured out that it was an extremely difficult thing to predict. Look at last night - that Tahs side could have slaughtered the Bulls, but they dropped a few pills and missed out on a competition point that would give them the lead in the whole conference.

What is surprising me most about this year is the Aussie conference being so close. The potential effect is to keep cutting points off the Aussie conference leaders, meaning a home final is becoming less likely for any of them, while the Shorks continue to reap easy points off their soft opposition at home.

Local derbies give a team potentially half its points, but the problem with the derbies is they're quite often slugfests, and few bonus points result due to players directly opposing each other for Wallabies spots and fearing failure rather than embracing opportunity.

The Waratahs from here are on 24 points, and have the following matches from an optimistic point of view:

Blues away - 4 points
Hurricanes home - 4 points
Bye
Lions home - 5 points
Rebels away - 4 points
Chiefs away - 0 points
Brumbies home* - 4 points
Highlanders home - 5 points
Reds away - 4 points

So they could potentially finish on 50, but this assumes winning everything bar the Chiefs from here. And that is a BIG ask unless our composure is better.

* Homebush - attendance depends largely on what happens after the bye...

 

[Forcefield]

I am hopeful that the Force will beat the Bulls next weekend. They'll be tired from the road and have one day less turn around. I reckon we'll also take at least one game in SA, beat the Lions at home and one of the Reds and Blues at home. That would make 4 wins.

 

[farva]

I

I am hopeful that the Force will beat the Bulls next weekend. They'll be tired from the road and have one day less turn around. I reckon we'll also take at least one game in SA, beat the Lions at home and one of the Reds and Blues at home. That would make 4 wins.

I am hoping for five wins. I think we can beat the Bulls, both SA games (they are the two bottom teams), the Reds and the Lions.
Add in two bonus points and that will give us 44 points, enough for the finals.

 

[starkz]

The Force won't be happy with 8th after their brilliant start.

 

[gel]

I don't imagine they will either.

When trying to predict the wins, I pretty much made the south african tour a loss for just about everyone (sorry Force fans). However I have failed to consider a south african side touring south africa - so perhaps the force will go OK over there .

Similarly, I didn't give the SA tourists much love in their way over here. I think the Sharks will do OK though.

I am uncertain if the win/loss thing crossing the indian ocean is a trend or an anomoly (it is only the first half of the season after all), but it is something that I think is becoming a very real barrier.

One of the Force wins I did factor in was the reds being tossed aside over at NIB. Their recent record against the reds is a trend rather than an anomoly, I reckon (much as I hate to say it).

I think I have probably been too favourable to the reds - but my thoughts are that unless there is a complete melt down they will string a couple of wins together, or else some of the players and coaching staff should be looking for new jobs at the end of this season (if not before).

 

[Brumby Runner]

What is surprising me most about this year is the Aussie conference being so close. The potential effect is to keep cutting points off the Aussie conference leaders, meaning a home final is becoming less likely for any of them, while the Shorks continue to reap easy points off their soft opposition at home.

Local derbies give a team potentially half its points, but the problem with the derbies is they're quite often slugfests, and few bonus points result due to players directly opposing each other for Wallabies spots and fearing failure rather than embracing opportunity.

Actually made this same prediction before the start of this year's Super comp. And it is proving to be so. Brumbies going down to Rebels and Tahs going down to Force. No slur on either the Rebels or the Force but just illustrating that there is so little difference in the Aus conference that teams at the top are losing points to those below. This just not happening with the Sharks, and only to a lesser effect to the Chiefs. Sincerely hope the Sharks get towelled up in every game on the NZ/Aus road trip.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

I think we can safely say that the only role left for the 6 sides on 16 & under is to trip up someone further up the table. Looking at Top-9 v Bottom-6 match ups the Sharks, Bulls & Force have 5; Waratahs 4; chiefs, Hurricanes & Highlanders 3; and Brumbies & Crusaders just 2.

Barring some major reversals of form, and allowing for the fact that the home team win % is around the 80 mark, I'm thinking that the Sharks, Waraths & Force have excellent runs into the finals; Chiefs, Brumbies & Crusaders less so but enough points & wins in the bank to make it; and the Hurricanes, Highlanders & Bulls will need to win everything & rely on other results.

I think the final table will look like this:

1. Sharks 57 (13 wins)
2. Waratahs 53 (12)
3. Chiefs 51 (10 - those draws are gonna hurt them big time)
4. Force 49 (11)
5. & 6. Brumbies & Crusaders 48 (11) on points differential
7. Hurricanes 47 (10)
8. Bulls 44 (9)
9. Highlanders 43 (9)
10 - 15. As currently placed

 

[Pfitzy]

At this point I'm just going to be happy if the Tahs make the finals, because anything can happen. But a top two finish and a final out at Homebush* would be good...

Against an Aussie team would be even better - potential to break crowd records etc

* and if you say you wouldn't go because it's inconvenient, you're no Tahs fan.

 

[swingpass]

I think we can safely say that the only role left for the 6 sides on 16 & under is to trip up someone further up the table. Looking at Top-9 v Bottom-6 match ups the Sharks, Bulls & Force have 5; Waratahs 4; chiefs, Hurricanes & Highlanders 3; and Brumbies & Crusaders just 2.

Barring some major reversals of form, and allowing for the fact that the home team win % is around the 80 mark, I'm thinking that the Sharks, Waraths & Force have excellent runs into the finals; Chiefs, Brumbies & Crusaders less so but enough points & wins in the bank to make it; and the Hurricanes, Highlanders & Bulls will need to win everything & rely on other results.

I think the final table will look like this:

1. Sharks 57 (13 wins)
2. Waratahs 53 (12)
3. Chiefs 51 (10 - those draws are gonna hurt them big time)
4. Force 49 (11)
5. & 6. Brumbies & Crusaders 48 (11) on points differential
7. Hurricanes 47 (10)
8. Bulls 44 (9)
9. Highlanders 43 (9)
10 - 15. As currently placed

do really think the force are going to win another 6 games ?

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

do really think the force are going to win another 6 games ?

Why not? Bulls at home & probably can't wait to get back to Pretoria, then Cheetahs, Stormers & Lions with Reds & Blues further down the track plus away to Crusaders & Brumbies. They should be good enough to get 6 wins out've that.

 

[Lindommer]

Version 1.0.

Here we are at the halfway mark of Super Rugby 2014. The table and future commitments look like this:

Sharks (31 points/played 8) Clan, Rebels, Ponies, Saders, Blues, Stormers, Cheetahs, Stormers
Brumbies (25/8) Chiefs, Saders, Sharks, Cheetahs, Bulls, Rebels, Tahs, bye, Force
Chiefs (25/8) Ponies, Lions, Blues, bye, Canes, Tahs, Clan, Canes, Blues
Waratahs (24/8) Blues, Canes, bye, Lions, Rebels, Chiefs, Ponies, Clan, Reds
Western Force (23/8) Bulls, bye, Cheetahs, Stormers, Lions, Saders, Blues, Reds, Ponies
Crusaders (22/8) bye, Ponies, Reds, Sharks, Clan, Force, Canes, Blues, Clan
Hurricanes (21/8) Reds, Tahs, Rebels, Clan, Chiefs, Blues, Saders, Chiefs, bye
Highlanders (19/7) Sharks, Stormers, Lions, Canes, Saders, Reds, Chiefs, Tahs, Saders
Bulls (19/9) Force, Cheetahs, Stormers, bye, Ponies, Lions, Stormers, Rebels
Lions (16/9) bye, Chiefs, Clan, Tahs, Force, Bulls, Rebels, Cheetahs
Blues (16/8) Tahs, Reds, Chiefs, bye, Sharks, Canes, Force, Saders, Chiefs
Reds (16/8) Canes, Blues, Saders, Rebels, bye, Clan, Rebels, Force, Tahs
Rebels (16/8) bye, Sharks, Canes, Reds, Tahs, Ponies, Reds, Lions, Bulls

italics, away matches


Some general observations:

Without being unkind (ie, bloody brutal) the Stormers (10/8) and the Cheetahs (9/9) are out of contention this year. The overall position of the Lions, Blues, Reds and Rebels (all on 16 points) is interesting: if any of them played a bonus point-winning match tomorrow while every other team stood still, that team would jump to 21 points and be one point outside the six. However, therein lies the problem for that quartet, there're three teams between them and the top six plus one they have to displace. A big ask, probably a bridge too far.

As at 20/4 the Chiefs, Saders, Canes and Blues from EnZed have been to Safferland, as have the Tahs and Reds from Oz. Conversely, the Cheetahs, Stormers and Bulls from SAf have visited the ANZAC lands (the Bulls have one tour match left, a challenging fixture against the Force). The Sharks embark on their tour next week and should come back to the field as they meet two fellow finals contenders, the Ponies and the Saders. The effects of away matches far from home shouldn't be ignored in the latter stages of the competition.

The long travel matches throw up a few interesting stats this year. ANZ sides have played 12 matches in SAf garnering 21 competition points along the way, including three wins (Saders two, Tahs one). On the other hand our Saffer friends have played 11 matches across the Indian Ocean reaping a meagre total of five points, all losing bonus points. On one level I feel for our South African brothers in rugby, travel's always going to be a right bastard for them. This is compensated to an extent by most of the ANZAC sides flying four times across the Tasman to meet their Australasian commitments (believe it or not, Saffers, most of us do more km per year than you, albeit in shorter trips). Somewhat conveniently, there are away matches just up the road: Lions/Bulls, Tahs/Brumbies, Blues/Chiefs and Saders/Clan. Cheetahs/Lions and Canes/Chiefs matches don't have a lot of onerous travel.


Going through the finals contenders individually:

Sharks. 2 home/6 away. Yet to meet the ANZACs, they should be bobbling around in the top four after a couple of losses on tour. Then, their last three matches are against the bottom two teams, although two away. Jake should be counting on a coupla wins here, one with a bonus point. Top four.

Brumbies. 4 home/4 away. Tough away games against the Saders, SAf (2) and Tahs. And that's on top of a home match against the reigning premiers, the Chiefs. More than one away win for the rest of the comp'd be a bonus. Finals.

Chiefs. 4 home/4 away. One game in Oz and one in the South Island, six games in NZ's picturesque North Island. Top two.

Waratahs. 4 home/4 away. BUT, have to make two trips to the land of the long white cloud. Should win all their home games and, hopefully, two away. Top four.

Western Force. 4 home/4 away. Of all the Australian/Saffer sides HTF does SANZAR schedule the Force to travel twice to New Zealand? There's been some sensible scheduling this year with Saffer sides (and the Tahs, thank you) playing the Force on their way to or from SAf. To add insult to injury the two Kiwi sides the Force play are the Clan and the Saders! After dragging the poor bastards all the way from Perth WTF wouldn't they leave them in the South Island? Talk about incompetent. To my mind the Force have over-achieved this year and grim reality will set in with their horrendous travel schedule, three more wins'd be realistic. However, they'll give a bit more cheek before finishing in the top 10.

Crusaders. 5 home/3 away. Two of the away matches are the Reds and the Canes, leaving them with six matches in the South Island. Bloody easy run home. Top four.

Hurricanes. 4 home/4 away. Make a mini-tour to Oz to confront the Tahs and Rebels leaving them with the other six matches on the North Island. However, they do have to play the Chiefs twice; I can't see them winning more than two out of four matches against teams currently higher than them on the ladder. Just in or just out of the six.

Highlanders. 3 home/6 away. Good: the Clan are the only team with 9 matches left to play (plenty of potential points to grab). Bad: six of those matches are away (including their SAf tour); six of those matches are against teams higher than them ATM. That's a two-edged sword, tough matches against "better" sides but they represent opportunities to take points against those sides and advance up the ladder. Looks like a challenging conclusion to the comp for the Clan with a SAf tour and two trips to Oz to negotiate, I don't think they're good enough to bother too many of the top teams. About eighth.

Bulls. 4 home/3 away. An easy finish to the comp with one difficult away match left, the Force this weekend. BUT, only seven matches left to gather points. Their two other away fixtures are a stroll down to Jo'burg and the hapless Stormers in Cape Town. Along with the rest of the current top 9 the Bulls should bank a win against the Stormers (and the Cheetahs, for others). In the Bulls' favour five of their remaining matches are against sides in the bottom six of the ladder. Top 10.

Lions. 3 home/4 away. Same as the Bulls, only seven matches left. I fear the Lions have played as well as they're going to in 2014 and their Indian Ocean expedition's going to be on a par with MH370. The Lions'll do well to stay in the top 10.

Blues. 5 home/3 away. Two games against the Chiefs and a tricky trip to Perth followed by a tough match in Christchurch should put paid to the Blues' chances this year. About 10th.

Reds. 4 home/4 away. The Reds are yet to meet the Rebels this year, HOWEVER, every other match is against teams higher than them. Be lucky to bank three more wins in 2014. Outside the top 10.

Rebels. 4 home/4 away. Difficult to see them winning more than one match against those higher than them before an easy trip to SAf. At least our Mexican friends won't come last.

A close examination of the remaining fixtures reveals some of the Kiwi sides (Chiefs, Canes, Saders, Blues) have a less taxing run home than others. My finalists:

Chiefs
Sharks
Waratahs
Crusaders
Brumbies
Hurricanes

 

[Pfitzy]

Chiefs
Sharks
Waratahs
Crusaders
Brumbies
Hurricanes

Chiefs v Tahs in Hamiltron? I'm there

 

[ChargerWA]

Some bloody good analysis in this thread. Lindo's could go up on the front page. Keep up the top work. God knows we aren't going to get anything as in depth or thoughtful from the mainstream print or tele media.

 

[gel]

Some bloody good analysis in this thread. Lindo's could go up on the front page. Keep up the top work. God knows we aren't going to get anything as in depth or thoughtful from the mainstream print or tele media.

Aww, I put in some hard work too...

 

[Hawko]

Without having seen this thread until I'd finished my analysis, I have written a blog article on the same subject. Lindomer's and Gel's could easily have displaced mine. Its very interesting to see the similarities and differences between all three and the justifications made.

• In terms of the top six, the major difference between us is that Gel thinks the Bulls will make it, Lindommer likes the Hurricanes and I like the Force. We may well know the outcome by this weekend, at least for the Force/Bulls conundrum
• Everyone likes the Sharks and Chiefs for top two and my theory is that its very unlikely you'll win from any other position. So, Chiefs or Sharks and whichever team gets home ground advantage will probably take it out.
• WO, the kiwi, doesn't like the two kiwi chances? That seems strange.

Tipping individual results and getting it right, particularly bonus points, means that all the analysis has a huge range of error. But it sure is a hell of a lot of fun!

 

[Lindommer]

Fairfax and News talking up the chances of three Oz teams in the finals. Read here:

Fairfax: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/rug...ing-pretty-in-super-rugby-20140421-zqx8r.html
News: http://www.news.com.au/sport/rugby/...ses-halfway-mark/story-fndpt9s1-1226891217655

At least it's positive.

 

[Tip]

Guys, lets be serious about how the ladder is going to play out.

Waratahs
Sharks
Chiefs
Brumbies
Force
Reds

Very exciting prospect, as I've always wanted to see Schoolboy matches televised...

 

[ForceFan]

These analyses grossly underestimate the Force's chances over the last 7 games:

1. They only play 1 team in the current top 6. Brumbies 4, Rebs & Tahs 3 and Reds 2.
2. They play 4 teams in the bottom 5 of the table. Tahs & Rebs 3, Reds & Brumbies 2.
3. They play only 2 Aussie teams. Rebs & Reds 4 and Tahs & Brumbies 3.

South African teams played are currently ranked 11 (Lions H), 14 (Cheetahs A) & 15 (Stormers A). 2 wins likely as Lions have yet to travel.

NZ teams played are currently ranked 8 (Crusaders A) and 9 (Blues H). 1 win likely.

Aussie teams played are ranked 13 (Reds H) and 2 (Brumbies A). 1 win likely.

By my count this makes 10 wins.

I don't see either the Reds or Rebs making the finals.

If the Tahs continue to play as they did against the Blues they too may miss out.

 

[Benaud]

My 2c

In South Africa, I have already written off the Stormers, Lions and Cheetahs. The Bulls need to win 5 of their remaining 6 matches to feature. Some chance given 4 of them are at home and the other 2 are away to the Stormers and Lions. I'm anticipating 3 wins at home and 1 win away, with 3 bonus points, which will see them finish on 39 points.

The Sharks are already home in this conference - the only question left for them is whether they get the first week off. Their 4 week tour against the Rebels, Brumbies, Crusaders and Blues looks extremely difficult and I suspect will yield just the single win. Back at home, their 2 games against the Stormers and 1 against the Cheetahs should yield 3/3. 4 wins and 4 bonus points gives them 51 points.

In Australia, the Reds are up against it now. Home matches against the Crusaders, Rebels, Highlanders and Waratahs look likely to yield 2 wins. Away matches against the Blues, Rebels and Force should see 1 win recorded. 3 wins and 3 bonus points gives them 31 points.

The Rebels have surprised me this year. They've got the Sharks, Hurricanes, Waratahs and Reds at home to come. I expect they'll win 2 of those matches. Away to the Reds, Brumbies, Lions and Bulls, they will likely find 1 win somewhere. 3 wins and 3 bonus points gives them 31 points.

The Force are interesting. They have the bye to ease them into the South Africa tour, which helps. I'd expect they'll win 1 of their 2 games over there against the Cheetahs and Stormers. Then they have 3 very winnable games at home against the Lions, Reds and Blues, and 2 likely losses away to the Brumbies and Crusaders. I'll put them down for 3 wins and 4 bonus points to finish on 43 points.

The Tahs have home games against the Canes, Lions, Brumbies and Highlanders. They'll likely win 3 of those matches. They have away matches against the Rebels, Chiefs and Reds, which will likely yield 1 win. 4 wins and 4 bonus points gives them 44 points.

The Brumbies have away matches against the Crusaders, Cheetahs, Bulls and Waratahs, which will likely yield 1 win. Their 3 home games against the Sharks, Force and Rebels will likely see 3 wins. 4 wins and 3 bonus points gives them 49 points.

New Zealand is by far the toughest conference to pick. There is currently 6 points separating 1st and last, with the majority of remaining matches for all teams being NZ derbies. I'm going to make the blanket assumption that the home team wins all derbies for simplicity as I can't get a confident read on any team being much better than any other in NZ right now.

The Blues win 2/4 derbies. They also play the Reds and Sharks at home and the Force away, from which I expect 2 more. 4 wins and 3 bonus points gives them 39 points.

The Canes win 3/5 derbies. They also play the Tahs and Rebels away, from which I expect 1 win. 4 wins and 3 bonus points gives them 45 points.

The Chiefs win 2/5 derbies. They also have expected home wins against the Lions and Waratahs. 4 wins and 4 bonus points gives them 45 points.

The Highlanders and Crusaders have an extra game. They each win 2/4 derbies. The Highlanders have a win at home against the Lions and 3 away matches against the Stormers, Reds and Waratahs, from which 1 win is expected. 4 wins and 4 bonus points gives them 44 points.

The Crusaders also play the Brumbies, Sharks and Force at home, and the Reds away. They'll likely get 3 wins on top of their 2 derby wins and 4 bonus points to finish on 46 points.

So in the end, my table looks like this:

Sharks 51
Brumbies 49
Crusaders 46
Hurricanes 45
Chiefs 45
Highlanders 44
Waratahs 44
Force 43
Blues 39
Bulls 39

I think it is between those 10. Pressed for a call, I'd say Sharks and Brumbies for top 2, Blues and Bulls to miss out. Very little between the Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Highlanders, Waratahs and Force for a place in the qualifiers.