Super Rugby Pacific 2024 The Run Home

[Lindommer]

Eight weeks down, seven to go. The field is starting to spread out with a coupla stragglers bringing up the rear and a bunched midfield losing touch with the leading group who are a little distance back from a runaway leader. Table and matches to go listed below:

Canes 32 Drua, Brumbies, Tahs, Blues, Moana, Chiefs, Clan
Blues 27 Brumbies, Reds, Rebels, Canes, Clan, Saders, Chiefs
Brumbies 27 Blues, Canes, Drua, Tahs, Saders, Rebels, Force
Rebels 24 bye, Saders, Blues, Reds, Chiefs, Brumbies, Drua
Chiefs 23 bye, Tahs, Force, Moana, Rebels, Canes, Blues
Reds 17 Clan, Blues, Saders, Rebels, Drua, Force, Tahs
Drua 13 Canes, Moana, Brumbies, Force, Reds, Clan, Rebels
Moana 13 bye, Drua, Clan, Chiefs, Canes, Tahs, Saders
Tahs 12 bye, Chiefs, Canes, Brumbies, Force, Moana, Reds
Clan 11 Reds, Force, Moana, Saders, Blues, Drua, Canes
Saders 7 Force, Rebels, Reds, Clan, Brumbies, Blues, Moana
Force 5 Saders, Clan, Chiefs, Drua, Tahs, Reds, Brumbies

Moana, Clan, Canes, Saders and Tahs used for the sake of brevity. Away games in italics.

Seven matches to go, apart from Moana and the Tahs. The Canes, Rebels, Chiefs and Clan have four away games, the rest three. The Reds should be able to scrape into the finals with gimme matches against the bottom two, but the logjam below them with only two spots up for grabs will be interesting. My money's on the Drua and the Tahs.

 

[Wilson]

Seven matches to go, apart from Moana and the Tahs. The Canes, Rebels, Chiefs and Clan have four away games, the rest three. The Reds should be able to scrape into the finals with gimme matches against the bottom two, but the logjam below them with only two spots up for grabs will be interesting. My money's on the Drua and the Tahs.

Tahs big problem is going to be keeping the belief - current form will see them lose the next four games. Force and Moana are then winnable for them and might be enough, but if the wheels have come off before then they could easily lose either game and that's probably it for their season, particularly if they lose to Moana. Drua's home ground advantage should get them home fine and the Highlanders have a much better run home than the Tahs. Still so hard to say where the Saders are at, but as injured players come back I think they'll pick up a couple of wins at home too.

We'll now a lot more after this round with must win games for a few sides, but at this stage I'm leaning towards Drua and Highlanders taking the last 2 spots

 

[Dctarget]

Chances that have 4 Aussie teams in the finals? Is it mathematically possible that the bottom four are Moana, ‘Saders, Drua and Highlanders?

 

[Strewthcobber]

Chances that have 4 Aussie teams in the finals? Is it mathematically possible that the bottom four are Moana, ‘Saders, Drua and Highlanders?

I think it's possible, but the Highlanders, Drua and MP (Moana Pasifika) all play each other in the next little while. Any of them need three more wins to probably make the finals

If one of those teams can sweep the other, they'd probably just need one more win from somewhere else

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

Mostly copied from the Crusaders team thread so kindly created & curated by the inimitable @Dismal Pillock...

I can realistically only see two Crusaders wins from last six games, Clan away & Moana at home. Reds at home I'd rate as a 25% chance but even with a heap of players* due to return from injury next week & the week after I can't see them beating any of the currently second-, third- or fourth-ranked Blues at home, Brumbies away or Rebels at home. It's so depressing I haven't even bothered to do the exercise of seeing if Moana and/ or Clan can be overtaken to avoid the wooden spoon

* one being Williams who I doubt will be wanting to leave his newborn in a Dunners incubator any time soon.

 

[Derpus]

Weird season. Blues and 'Canes seem to be by far the best two teams in the comp. Can't see anyone else getting close.

The best of the Kiwi sides still a class above the Aussies but... only two of them this season rather than usual four.

 

[Rebel man]

Not enough talent in the South Island to maintain two teams. Time to cut the Crusaders

 

[Lindommer]

Nine weeks down, six to go. Table and matches to go listed below:

Canes 37 Brumbies, Tahs, Blues, Moana, Chiefs, Clan
Blues 32 Reds, Rebels, Canes, Clan, Saders, Chiefs
Brumbies 27 Canes, Drua, Tahs, Saders, Rebels, Force
Rebels 24 Saders, Blues, Reds, Chiefs, Brumbies, Drua
Chiefs 23 Tahs, Force, Moana, Rebels, Canes, Blues
Reds 22 Blues, Saders, Rebels, Drua, Force, Tahs
Drua 13 Moana, Brumbies, Force, Reds, Clan, Rebels
Moana 13 Drua, Clan, Chiefs, Canes, Tahs, Saders
Tahs 12 Chiefs, Canes, Brumbies, Force, Moana, Reds
Clan 11 Force, Moana, Saders, Blues, Drua, Canes
Force 9 Clan, Chiefs, Drua, Tahs, Reds, Brumbies
Saders 7 Rebels, Reds, Clan, Brumbies, Blues, Moana

Moana, Clan, Canes, Saders and Tahs used for the sake of brevity. Away games in italics.

What a weekend! When was the last time there was a 30 point win for the Reds AND a 30 point drubbing for the Brumbies on the same weekend? The Reds have, surely, snagged themselves a spot in the finals. So, two out of the Drua, Moana, Tahs and Clan will miss out. The Drua don't play either of the top two, Canes and Blues, while the Clan do, and both away. Out of that quartet it'd be safe to frame the Clan with the longest odds. My money's still on the Drua and Tahs to go through.

Home and away over the last six weeks is interesting: the Brumbies and Saders have two away games out of six while the Rebels and Chiefs both have four. Mmmm? How did that happen? There's little chance the Chiefs or the Rebels will miss out on the finals, but a top four spot looks like a challenge.

 

[Wilson]

Chiefs a lot of away games, but two of them against tahs and Moana should be easy for them. I back them as probably the biggest (positive) movers in the top 6. Big few weeks for the Rebels - away game in New Zealand they should win but it's something they've always struggled with and the Crusaders do seem to have more at home, then playing the 4 sides surrounding them on the table and finishing with an away game in Fiji. They should have the finals stitched up but there's a lot of room for movement there. Come out of it reasonably well and they'll be in a good place to challenge in a quarter though.

Outside the 8 I still like the Highlanders if they can get their 9/10 sorted. They've got about as good a run as they could hope for the next few weeks and playing the Force, Crusaders and Drua all at home is a big plus, those sides are a much easier prospect when they're on the road. Force can do something if they keep putting in performances at home like the last two. Home wins against the Drua and Tahs are basically double points for them. Tahs next two games could absolutely torch their for and against while one or both of the Highlanders and Force move past them on the ladder, keeping the spirits high (and the rest of the squad on the field) are going to be vital for them before they get the chance to play any of the sides they're competing with for a spot in the 8. Crusaders favourable home schedule can still see them make a move, particularly with talent returning, but I think a lot of the fear around them is gone and sides will be making a point of targetting that game.

 

[Dctarget]

I don't take anything for granted, surely Rebels can still not make finals, just don't trust it. Also, Crusaders will always be favourites despite their season and if we win it's an upset.

If we managed to put out the 'Landers and 'Saders into the bottom 4 that would make me so happy.

 

[Dismal Pillock]

In Depth Match-By-Match Analysis of Blues Run Home:

 

[Dismal Pillock]

In Depth Step-by-Step Analysis of The Cantabs Run Home:

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[Lindommer]

Looking at travel over the last five weeks, the Canes, Brumbies and Saders have the least inconvenience of all. The Canes play in Canberra and then all matches on the North Island; the Brumbies play in Perth (sorta same as crossing the Tasman for us) and all other games in eastern Australia; and the Saders also play the Brumbies away and all other games on the South Island. The Reds and Rebels probably have the worst of it with games in Christchurch and Fiji.

The Super Rugby isn't a particularly onerous competition with a maximum of 18 matches (why isn't it longer?) compared to, say, English Premier League with 38 home and away fixtures plus FA and League Cup commitments. Then some play in Europe, which could be up to another 10 or so games. But, the distances are the killer. I did a spreadsheet some years ago for three teams' (Stormers, Force and Clan) travel over a season, and worked out it's further from Auckland to Cape Town than it is from Vladivostok to St Petersburg. That year the Force travelled across across Oz and the Tasman to play in Christchurch before returning to Perth, and then a coupla weeks later did the same trip and more to play in Dunedin! SRP (Super Rugby Pacific) should do a draw so's sides cross the Tasman only twice, there and back.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Or only cross the Tasman in a Champions Cup style tournament at the end of separate Super Rugby competitions.

 

[KevinO]

Or only cross the Tasman in a Champions Cup style tournament at the end of separate Super Rugby competitions.

Champions cup need to run throughout the season, not at the end. Your team has a crap season your not going to get behind them. Having an ok season but going all out to win the cup will keep fans interested.

 

[Wilson]

Tahs big problem is going to be keeping the belief - current form will see them lose the next four games. Force and Moana are then winnable for them and might be enough, but if the wheels have come off before then they could easily lose either game and that's probably it for their season, particularly if they lose to Moana. Drua's home ground advantage should get them home fine and the Highlanders have a much better run home than the Tahs. Still so hard to say where the Saders are at, but as injured players come back I think they'll pick up a couple of wins at home too.

We'll now a lot more after this round with must win games for a few sides, but at this stage I'm leaning towards Drua and Highlanders taking the last 2 spots

One round to go and this is all looking pretty bang on

 

[RugbyReg]

The Rebels are going to make it right? So you’d expect them to rest players this weekend v Drua. Does that result - a bonus point win to Fiji - do anything crazy to the ladder? Just secures Fiji a spot?

 

[Wilson]

The Rebels are going to make it right? So you’d expect them to rest players this weekend v Drua. Does that result - a bonus point win to Fiji - do anything crazy to the ladder? Just secures Fiji a spot?

Yeah, Rebels are locked in and Drua are the only side that can fall out of the 8. I'm expecting a bit of rest and rotation from the Rebels to manage their travel into the quarter finals.

Bonus point win for the Drua will put them ahead of the Rebels and into 7th, a standard win (or a bp win where the Rebels get a losing bp) won't be enough for them to pass the Rebels. Any win for Fiji locks the 8.

 

[KevinO]

So I just noticed that the URC and Super rugby final are on the same day, Super Rugby starts in Feb and URC started in October. Just crazy how Super Rugby falls short of being a meaningful contest with such a short tournament.

 

[KevinO]

Yeah, Rebels are locked in and Drua are the only side that can fall out of the 8. I'm expecting a bit of rest and rotation from the Rebels to manage their travel into the quarter finals.

Bonus point win for the Drua will put them ahead of the Rebels and into 7th, a standard win (or a bp win where the Rebels get a losing bp) won't be enough for them to pass the Rebels. Any win for Fiji locks the 8.

I think the Rebels need to go for the win, resting players and finishing 7th or 8th means tough NZ games. I'd rather play the Brumbies or Chiefs so going for the win is the better option.

Although someone was floating the rumor yesterday that last Mondays meetings went that badly with RA that the players might not even board the plane to FIJI for this weekends game. No sources behind it, but wouldn't be a good sign for the competition if RUPA is backing the Rebels players into taking this stance.