RWC 2019 Draw: Seedings & Qualification

[waiopehu oldboy]

With the Six Nations & Rugby Europe Championship now concluded the seeding bands for the RWC 2019 draw in May have been confirmed:

Band 1:
New Zealand
England
Australia
Ireland

Band 2:
Scotland
France
South Africa
Wales

Band 3:
Argentina
Japan
Georgia
Italy

These being the teams who finished in the top three of their Pool at RWC 2015, grouped by their Workd Ranking as of the date the draw is made (there being no more matches with ranking points attached between now & May).

The presence of Argentina in Band 3 raises the real possibility of another "Pool of Death" similar to the one England failed to progress from in 2015.

The remaining eight places at the tournament will be taken by seven regional & inter-regional qualifiers, and the winner of a last-chance repechage. The last qualifier won't be known until November 2018 but each of them (e.g. "Europe 2", "Pacific 1", etc) will be allocated a Pool this May.

 

[gel]

I don't understand why world rugby leave the seedlings and pools so late.

I think they should definitely allow more time and organise the pools at least two and a half decades before the tournament starts.

That would give the competing unions proper time to develop their respective breeding programs and development strategies to truly showcase the strength of their respective organisations.

 

[Braveheart81]

I don't understand why world rugby leave the seedlings and pools so late.

This time around it's actually closer to the next RWC by some margin than it normally is.

I also think it's a bit silly doing it so far out but the flipside of it is that the 12 teams that get seeded into the top two pools are the ones who finished top 3 in their pools in 2015 so there is already a basis of the seedings being based on old results.

Italy is the big outlier here. They are currently ranked 15th in the world but make it through as a top three finisher in 2015.

Fiji is currently ranked 10th and has no chance of being part of this because they didn't finish in the top 3 in 2015.

 

[Highlander35]

Someone said somewhere that they wanted to be later but the JRFU wanted a head start on the Olympic ticket selling.

 

[Braveheart81]

Someone said somewhere that they wanted to be later but the JRFU wanted a head start on the Olympic ticket selling.

Makes sense.

The logistics around the tournament scheduling, people movements and accommodation requirements would be pretty complex.

 

[Scoey]

So for someone who has absolutely no idea how all of this works will the pools be made up of one team from each band and 2 either qualifiers or repechage? Is it that simple?

So Australia will have one of Scotland, France, South Africa or Wales AND one of Argentina, Japan, Georgia, Italy, plus the two before mentioned qualifiers in our pool?

Second question (assuming the answer to my first question is yes - big assumption I know) is the process for choosing which teams end up where random or is there some methodology to it? Ie Pool A is Band 1 #1, Band 2 #4, Band 3 #1 etc.

 

[Strewthcobber]

So for someone who has absolutely no idea how all of this works will the pools be made up of one team from each band and 2 either qualifiers or repechage? Is it that simple?

So Australia will have one of Scotland, France, South Africa or Wales AND one of Argentina, Japan, Georgia, Italy, plus the two before mentioned qualifiers in our pool?

Second question (assuming the answer to my first question is yes - big assumption I know) is the process for choosing which teams end up where random or is there some methodology to it? Ie Pool A is Band 1 #1, Band 2 #4, Band 3 #1 etc.

It's that simple. They are drawn from a hat, one from each band per pool

http://m.zimbio.com/pictures/jwOG_iiUB0O/IRB+Rugby+World+Cup+2015+Pool+Allocation+Draw

 

[Scoey]

Great, thanks! Wonders will never cease!

 

[Braveheart81]

So for someone who has absolutely no idea how all of this works will the pools be made up of one team from each band and 2 either qualifiers or repechage? Is it that simple?

So Australia will have one of Scotland, France, South Africa or Wales AND one of Argentina, Japan, Georgia, Italy, plus the two before mentioned qualifiers in our pool?

Second question (assuming the answer to my first question is yes - big assumption I know) is the process for choosing which teams end up where random or is there some methodology to it? Ie Pool A is Band 1 #1, Band 2 #4, Band 3 #1 etc.

You are correct on who we will be drawn with. Then I believe band 4 will be the following qualifiers: Europe 1, Oceania 1, Americas 1 and either Oceania 2, Americas 2 or Africa 1. Band 5 is the last four spots being the two who aren't in band 4 plus Oceania 3 or Europe 2 (whichever one wins the playoff) and the Repechage winner.

The draw is then done by pool and pot. I.e. they draw one out of Pot 1 for Pool A, one from Pot 1 for pool B etc. etc.

Obviously everyone will be wanting to avoid the pool that has Argentina from Pot 3. There is the potential that a pool could have Argentina and Fiji in it from Pot 3 and 4 respectively.

 

[Scoey]

Good explanation, thanks!

 

[Highlander35]

Here's an image that sort of helps but doesn't really in terms of who might qualify.

 

[Brumby Runner]

Obviously everyone will be wanting to avoid the pool that has Argentina from Pot 3. There is the potential that a pool could have Argentina and Fiji in it from Pot 3 and 4 respectively.

And SA from Pot 2?

 

[Braveheart81]

And SA from Pot 2?

Historically for sure. Maybe not in 2019 though. Wales or Scotland could potentially be tougher.

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[waiopehu oldboy]

You are correct on who we will be drawn with. Then I believe band 4 will be the following qualifiers: Europe 1, Oceania 1, Americas 1 and either Oceania 2, Americas 2 or Africa 1. Band 5 is the last four spots being the two who aren't in band 4 plus Oceania 3 or Europe 2 (whichever one wins the playoff) and the Repechage winner.

There's some contradictory stuff floating about, incl between the WR (World Rugby) & RWC websites, but the consensus seems to be that the "Regional 1's" will all be in Band 4 with the "Regional 2's" & repechage winner in Band 5.

 

[Braveheart81]

There's some contradictory stuff floating about, incl between the WR (World Rugby) & RWC websites, but the consensus seems to be that the "Regional 1's" will all be in Band 4 with the "Regional 2's" & repechage winner in Band 5.

I agree it is confusing mostly because you can't directly compare 2015 to 2019 because the qualifiers are different based on who qualified automatically.

It would be a little weird ranking Africa 1 (normally Namibia) ahead of Oceania 2 (Samoa or Tonga).

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[liquor box]

I agree it is confusing mostly because you can't directly compare 2015 to 2019 because the qualifiers are different based on who qualified automatically.

It would be a little weird ranking Africa 1 (normally Namibia) ahead of Oceania 2 (Samoa or Tonga).

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Never underestimate the African national Congress, this is just the new quota system

 

[Beer Baron]

Here's an image that sort of helps but doesn't really in terms of who might qualify.

Thought that was a joke flow chart at first....although it does make sense

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

With reference to the chart posted by H35 above, Rugby Europe are running their qualifying over two seasons, 2016-17 & 2017-18, and excluding matches involving Georgia from the points table. Standings after the first season are:

1. Romania 15 points
2. Spain 13
3. Russia 9
4. Germany 8
5. Belgium 2

The winner on two-season aggregate qualifies as "Europe 1".

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

I found the table above on rugbyest.com which has this handy guide to the process by which "Europe 2" will be determined:

https://rugbyest.com/european-path-to-the-rugby-world-cup-2019-explained

It's a tad complicated by allowing for some unlikely possibilities but you'd think it essentially means that the runner-up to "Europe 1" will end up playing "Oceania 3" with the winner qualifying for the Cup & the loser going into the repechage.

EDIT: The qualifying process for Oceania is rather simpler, mainly because there are only three teams involved. The winner & runner-up on aggregate points from the 2016 & 2017 Pacific Nations Cups qualify as "Oceania 1" & "Oceania 2", with the third-placed team playing off against "Europe 2" as described above.

Standings after the 2016 PNC (Pacific Nations Cup) are:

1. Fiji 8
2. Samoa 4
3. Tonga 1