As the Wallabies embark on their end-of-season tour, few would be aware just how much is riding on every result. The seedings for the next World Cup will be based on rankings at the end of November.
The Wallabies currently sit third on 85.69 points, behind New Zealand (92.04) and South Africa (87.75), but more importantly just ahead of Argentina (83.36) and England (83.16).
These kind of facts and figures may bore the socks off some people, but they could have a massive impact on our World Cup hopes in 2011.
If we stay in third spot and New Zealand maintain their No.1 ranking, we would face South Africa in a World Cup semi-final (provided results followed the form guide, of course).
If we drop to fourth, we would most likely have to face the All Blacks in the semi-finals; if we drop to fifth, make than a trans-Tasman confrontation in the quarter-finals - an even more unappealing prospect.
Of course, a lot can happen before the next World Cup. Following the 2003 tournament, England were entrenched in first position.
Two years later, they were languishing much lower in the rankings. I don't think the same will happen to New Zealand, particularly if Dan Carter and Richie McCaw stay fit. There is also the possibility of Carl Hayman, Luke McAlister and co returning from Europe, which would make the All Blacks even more formidable.
Wales (80.12 points) and France (78.99) are too far adrift to make the top four, and it is unlikely Australia would drop out of that bracket. That would happen only if Argentina beat Ireland at Croke Park in November, and England have a very good series against the visiting Tri Nations countries in the same month.
Given that southern hemisphere teams make up the top four spots on the ladder, European teams may be paying the price for not giving the June Tests the respect they deserve.
The International Rugby Board rankings use a "points exchange" system in which teams take points off each other; you are rewarded or penalised based on the result and for winning or losing by 15 points or more. Home-ground advantage is also factored in to the equation. Put simply, for every loss, you lose roughly half a point, while the opposition gains half a point.
The Wallabies probably weren't aware of it at the time, but the points spread in their last game against New Zealand had important ramifications. When we were down 28-17 in Brisbane, with New Zealand on the attack and on the verge of scoring, we were facing a 15-point loss at home - and the prospect of our ranking taking a serious hit. Like everyone else, I was delighted Australia scored late to close the gap and set up a thrilling finish to the game.
I'm not sure how the IRB will calculate the points for the Bledisloe Cup match in neutral Hong Kong on November 1. It's an interesting challenge
I believe there is too much emphasis on the World Cup. It feels like we are focusing on the next tournament as soon as the last one is finished. Instead, we should be focusing on the next Test or the next Super 14 season. National coaches always seem to be building for the next World Cup and some use it as an excuse for poor form.
In this case, world rankings are an interesting sidebar to our November tour. I don't think Australia will drop from third, as I anticipate Ireland will beat Argentina at Croke Park and that England won't win all their home Tests. But it's a fascinating scenario to keep an eye on.
