Rugby post 2019

[Gnostic]

How many know that post 2019 there is no test rugby schedule?

With the SH pushing for a Global season and the NH, especially the clubs, saying we have the money and we're alright jack is there are a solution in sight?

Long term lurkers of the Forum will remember my often stated fears over the years that Test rugby will become like soccer friendlies, which I first moaned about when the Samoan side was hit with a lot of 'injuries' and retirements that had those players turning out for their French sides.

Now when we add in the new Super Rugby format and the fact that I am yet to speak personally to anybody who likes it, the decrease in quality from SA and Oz and the likely exacerbating factor of the continuance of player drain to the lands of the Euro and Pound Stirling what is the future of the game in the SH.

Given the parlous nature of the game in Oz can the ARU take any sort of hit?

A linky for the most recent round of unfruitful talks on the subject.

http://www.sportsnews.com.au/rugby-union/rugby-powerbrokers-at-loggerheads/183147

 

[Strewthcobber]

The TRC is included in the latest broadcast deal through to 2020, and there's no way the 6 nations is disappearing so it's really the June and November test windows that are up in the air.

But we can see what happens in world cup years when the ARU losses these test matches - it does ugly things to the bottom line.

 

[Highlander35]

Fun stuff.

Certainly France, England and New Zealand can probably play Mexican standoff with inbound and outbound tours. Other sides, well, not so much.

Virtually everybody is in agreement that a Global season is best, I just can't see a way for both sides to lose out a little, I can only really see that one side will lose big.

 

[Teh Other Dave]

Hopefully there will flying cars and supercomputers by then. All of our problems will be solved.

 

[Gnostic]

My thoughts are that basically all tests will, outside of the 6N and RC (and Pacific Nations Cup etc) probably cease excepting for individual friendlies organised in the windows. Club rugby will rule because that is where the money and profit is, at least in the north.

I don't see a future for Super Rugby, the format is losing interest with far too many previously dedicated fans and unlike the Super League war there is nothing really taking the place of the game and there is nothing to reconcile and kiss and make up. While my assertion is not based on hard statistics and is subjective to the club players, posters and extended groups I know, I find that I am one of only a handful in that group that still sits down every weekend to watch most games. Indeed even from fanatical rusted on supporters, some of whom were long time posters on this forum have lost interest in Pro rugby to the extent they often don't know the scores of the games.

To me this growing disconnect and the parlous state of the finances across Australia rugby leaves me with growing fears for the game here. We basically have no bargaining position apart from the number 2 ranking and the marketing that that brings, but that will only stay for as long as that ranking is maintained.

No matter what I don't think the game is or will be better for the financial dominance of the English and French clubs.

 

[boyo]

Hopefully there will flying cars and supercomputers by then. All of our problems will be solved.

Yeah, nah

 

[Omar Comin']

There's been some new stories about the Pro 12 joining up with South Africa and possibly the Americas. Perhaps this could be a power play against French and English club rugby. The Celtic nations switch seasons and create a new European/South African/Americas Super Rugby division. Our teams compete in an Asia-Pacific division, and the best teams from both make it through to an extended global playoff series.

 

[kiap]

Ok: ... moved from the other thread ...

This is perhaps not directly in ARU's future plans, but given Andrew (non-seal-killer) Hore's recent statement about Pro-12 teams playing Supe sides, this is interesting:

From printed version of The Rugby Paper

 

[The_Brown_Hornet]

So rugby as we know it is going to die? Right, got it.

 

[Braveheart81]

Maybe the 6th South African team can exit Super Rugby and join the Pro 12?

 

[kiap]

We're possibly locked into six saffa sides under Uncle Rupe's deal for another four seasons.

But after that it could be all bets are off. The Saffa sides obviously line-up well with the European timezone in terms of TV games. Whereas they don't for us.

 

[Highlander35]

The Pro12 is throwing around so many permutations. Italians talking about a 3rd Rome based side, the 3rd Scottish side is always in the imaginations/projections, the exile sides, mainland European and American sides etc.

Who knows. I'd like to see some way to create 4 by 4 conferences, for an 18 game season plus 3 weeks of playoffs. Everyone in your own conference H & A, everyone else H or A, and a top 6-8, involving all the conference leaders, but home finals based on overall standings, not conference leaders.

 

[kiap]

Where might those 4 conferences be, Highlander?

 

[Highlander35]

Ireland- Leinster, Connacht, Ulster, Munster
Wales- Scarlets, Ospreys, Blues, Dragons/London Welsh
Scotland- Edinburgh, Glasgow, Border Reivers/Caledonia Reds, London Scottish
Italy/Europe- Treviso, Zebre, Rome based side, mainland Europe side

Cuts down from 24 game weekends to 21 weekends, would mean no overlap with the 6 Nations (currently 2 games overlap) or the November Internationals (currently 1 game overlaps).

The reduction in games against nonlocal sides would also help in Europe so we would only play a certain side a maximum of 4 times (1 league, 2 Europe, 1 playoffs), rather than the situation we had this year where it looked like us and the Scarlets would play 5 times, had results fallen a little differently.

 

[kiap]

SANZAAR's plans (through keewee eyes):

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Sanzaar plots 10 year plan and more change in 2018 as major review begins​

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Super Rugby's controversial format will be retained until the end of next year but Sanzaar is promising a thorough review with more change likely in 2018.​

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After drifting along without any firm long term vision, Sanzaar has hired a consultancy firm and over the next six months will map out its 10 year strategic vision (2016-2225). A major part of that process will involve a critical look at the conference style structures and Sanzaar chief executive Andy Marinos says everything from expansion into new territories to reduction of teams in some countries are options on the table.​

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A yet-to-be announced consultancy company will work with the respective Sanzaar national unions, Super Rugby franchises, broadcasters and commercial partners before signing off a clear direction at the end of this year. Regaining some of the compromised integrity and credibility of this competition should also be a focus.​

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Expressions of interest for potential new teams will then be sought, with Marinos expecting bids from South America, North America, other parts of Asia and Europe.​

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Given their comparative lack of player depth and commercial success, Australia shapes as the obvious country to drop one of their five teams if that pathway is genuinely explored.​

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"You've got to be open-minded when you go into a process," Marinos said. "Is it a continual expansion? Is it an expansion in two conferences? Is it a reduction and creating a two tier system? There's a whole lot of different permutations one has to consider as you go through a process like this if you want to get the best result.​

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"Certain countries may reduce and some may retain or expand. If you want to be fair to the fans and people who are supporting us you've to look at all options. You can't just look at only one option about expanding further."​

Read more:

Spoiler

Despite widespread criticism over the performances of Japan's Sunwolves, the Port Elizabeth-based Kings and underwhelming effort of Argentina's Jaguares in year one, Sanzaar remains committed to the 18-team competition for now.

"We've signed broadcast agreements for that. But we're saying if, during the next five years, we believe there is an alternative model we will certainly have a very good look at that. But for the 2016/2017 season I wouldn't envision there being any changes to the model we've got.

"But we are wanting to get a better structure going forward. To try put a new team up in 2017 you're not giving them enough time to prepare. You need at least 12 to 18 months to identify the opportunity and then make sure the high performance and commercial models can underpin it.

"We've seen the consequence of not having all that up and ready at the start of this year with all the disruption and change, particularly in Japan and with the Kings. 2018 for me is more achievable should we look to expand."

The Pacific Islands are likely to remain out in the cold by further expansion, unless the Asia Pacific Dragons regain a foothold in Singapore convince they tick all the boxes. Backed by Eric Series, the chairman of Samoa Water and investor in the Chiefs, the Dragons were overlooked in favour of the Sunwolves this year.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/...nd-more-change-in-2018-as-major-review-begins

 

[kiap]

Via a saffa outlet:

WELLINGTON — Super Rugby will keep its unloved current format until the end of next year, but change could happen in 2018, a report citing governing body Sanzaar said on Wednesday.​

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The competition expanded to 18 teams this season with the addition of Japan’s Sunwolves, Argentina’s Jaguares and SA’s Southern Kings, but it has not been plain sailing.​

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Critics have complained of the lacklustre standard of games, lopsided contests, exhausting travel schedules and a fragmented, four-conference system.​

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While the New Zealand conference is fiercely competitive, with three co-leaders among its five teams, the other three conferences in Australia and SA are considerably weaker.​

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Fairfax New Zealand’s stuff.co.nz reported that Sanzaar has hired a consultancy firm and, over the next six months, will map out a 10-year strategic vision.​

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It said expressions of interest for potential new teams would then be sought, with possible bids from South America, North America, the Pacific, Europe and other parts of Asia.​

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"You’ve got to be open-minded when you go into a process," the governing body’s CE Andy Marinos was quoted as saying.​

http://www.bdlive.co.za/sport/rugby/2016/05/19/sanzaar-set-for-change-not-just-yet

 

[Brumby Runner]

If they will seriously consider expanding, then it would have to be a two-tier system I'd think. Reduce the top tier to the best of the best, probably 5 x NZ, 3 or 4 x Aus and 3 or 4 x SA. Or 3 x 4 teams would bring us back to Super 12. Then there'd need to be promotion/relegation but imo that should be decided year on year by a playoff competition between the top two sides in the second tier v the bottom two sides in the top tier.

The second tier would have sides from SA, Aus, Asia, Americas, so there'd be some scheduling/travel problems to be sorted. Maybe a conference system in that tier.

 

[waiopehu oldboy]

^^^^^^^^^ Sethfickens absolutely will not accept anything that sees their teams spending either a month in Australasia or making two two-game visits. I also seriously doubt they'd countenance having two teams in T2 while NZ & Straya have one each. Other than that, it makes perfect sense (& that, of course, is the main reason it can't possibly happen ).

 

[Gnostic]

A key question remains what happens with test rugby. In Oz the Super sides are supported by keeping their best players on ARU top ups. If there is not surety in test schedules how do you budget for the top ups. There also remains a significant question mark of the viability of the ARU as they have no real margin for error in their budget even with the "huge " new deal.

If the NH club sides take more of the starting players from Oz and SA will the broadcast dollars still be coming in for Super Rugby? If that drops off how long can NZ retain their top players?

So much hinges on what happens with the test schedule and the push for a Global season. Who will blink and if World Rugby decides on the change to something like the proposals from the SH will the NH clubs concede or will they just break away as they currently have the cash to do so it seems, even if long term I don't think many of the clubs are viable.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Bit of an update. World Rugby have decided on some changes, though we don't have much detail at this stage. No reports as to how end of year tour revenue will be sorted

* Six nations stays where it is
* Domestic Rugby in (some parts) up north to start and finish later
* Looks like Super Rugby may be finishing earlier?
* No mention of the Top 14 which renders the rest of it pretty meaningless

Hopefully more to come

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/37354427