Luck of the Draw?

[kiap]

I took a look at the new Super Rugby draw, when under another guise, but thought it might be worth posting here. This may have all been covered before, but at least I can say I've started a thread!

Plenty of arguments to be had over the relative strengths of the new Super Rugby conferences... ranging from the luxury for top Saffa sides playing the Lions and Cheetahs twice... to the burden of them having a four week tour compared with only two week tours in the other direction, etc, etc... Good grist for the mill so, by all means, bring it on!

If we just focus on the fixtures, though: Which teams actually have a favourable draw this year?

For a start, each team obviously avoids playing two others over the regular season. Would be fairer with two extra rounds to overcome that, but it wasn't to be. So, teams that stay away from the stronger title contenders obviously gain an advantage... And the other factor is still the old split between home and away. It's no longer an issue within the conferences with all sides now meeting twice, but it still matters for the other eight rounds. The teams playing away against the stronger contenders overseas are disadvantaged compared to the teams that play those stronger contenders at home.

I reckon 3 sides do well on both counts (Canes, Brumbies, Blues) and 2 sides strike out on both (Chiefs, Cheetahs)... Brumbies aside, the Australian teams aren't getting a head start this year:

Good draw

Hurricanes 	Brumbies:	Blues:	   
-------------------------------------------
Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:
  Stormers	  Bulls	          Bulls	
  Waratahs	  Blues	          Brumbies
			
Away Tour:	Away Tour:	Away Tour:
  Rebels 	  Crusaders 	  Sharks
  Brumbies 	  Highlanders 	  Lions
  Cheetahs 	  Cheetahs 	  Force 
  Sharks 	  Sharks 	  Reds
-------------------------------------------

OK

Stormers:       Sharks:	        Bulls:	        Lions:	        Force: 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:
  Hurricanes      Highlanders	  Blues  	  Crusaders	  Cheetahs
  Waratahs        Reds            Brumbies	  Rebels	  Chiefs
			
Away Tour:	Away Tour:	Away Tour:	Away Tour:	Away Tour:
  Chiefs          Force 	  Hurricanes 	  Brumbies	  Lions
  Blues           Rebels 	  Crusaders 	  Waratahs	  Stormers
  Brumbies        Chiefs 	  Reds 	          Highlanders	  Hurricanes
  Rebels          Crusaders 	  Force 	  Hurricanes	  Highlanders
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mediocre

Highlanders:	Waratahs:	Reds: 	        Crusaders: 	Rebels:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:
  Sharks	  Stormers	  Sharks	  Lions	          Lions
  Reds	          Hurricanes	  Highlanders	  Rebels	  Crusaders
				
Away Tour:	Away Tour:	Away Tour:	Away Tour:	Away Tour:
  Bulls	          Crusaders 	  Lions 	  Force 	  Chiefs
  Stormers	  Blues 	  Stormers 	  Stormers 	  Blues
  Rebels	  Sharks 	  Hurricanes 	  Cheetahs 	  Bulls
  Waratahs	  Bulls 	  Chiefs 	  Reds 	          Cheetahs 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tough draw

Chiefs: 	Cheetahs:
------------------------------
Don’t Play:	Don’t Play:
  Cheetahs	  Chiefs
  Force	          Force
	
Away Tour:	Away Tour:
  Brumbies 	  Waratahs
  Waratahs 	  Reds
  Lions 	  Blues
  Bulls 	  Highlanders
------------------------------

 

[Slim 293]

I would've thought that the Tahs would be pretty pleased to avoid the Stormers and the Canes...

That's definitely some tough away games for them though...

The Brumbies have certainly got a pretty good away draw but they've struggled to beat the Crusaders away for some time now... in fact, the Crusaders have generally given them a fair beating in Christchurch... the Brumbies would've loved to have played them at home where they've actually continued to dominate them...

 

[kiap]

I would've thought that the Tahs would be pretty pleased to avoid the Stormers and the Canes...

That's definitely some tough away games for them though...

That's true. If the Tah's could swap two games with the Brumbies (taking the Cheetahs and Highlanders for the Bulls and Blues) then you'd be close to reversing the verdicts on their draws.

The Brumbies have certainly got a pretty good away draw but they've struggled to beat the Crusaders away for some time now... in fact, the Crusaders have generally given them a fair beating in Christchurch... the Brumbies would've loved to have played them at home where they've actually continued to dominate them...

Can't have it all, man. But you can't get much better than having both Cheetahs and Highlanders there! ... (Poor old Chiefs hardly get a feed. Well, a bit of Lion bone, and then nothin'...)

Agree that the home games are the key to this competition.

 

[Slim 293]

The Brumbies need to be wary as they have the terrible habit of dropping the first game on their SA trips... No matter who it is...

 

[Langthorne]

It really depends how you look at it. I think the Waratahs' home draw is great. The away games will be a big challenge though.

 

[Hawko]

This analysis leaves out some key factors.

I reckon the Crusaders would be very pleased with their draw because, although they play the Stormers and Reds away they get the Brumbies, Waratahs, Sharks and Bulls at home. That easily makes up for missing two of the easy-beats. Christchurch is a fortress - I think their win ratio there is over 90%. Canberra is next best but is nowhere near that percentage. Those four home games are likely to deliver at least three wins, probably two with bonus points. That's a very big dent in the other top teams.

The Tahs on the other hand should be in the tough category. They usually beat the Hurricanes, so missing them is no advantage. They've got the other two tough Kiwi teams away and although they miss the Stormers they have the other two top SA teams away. At home they've only got the easy-beats. That's maybe a few five pointers but if they lose against the top teams on the road then bonus points won't mean much.

Reds have got a great draw. They face the two favourites, Crusaders and Bulls, at home along with the Blues who are a bit of a bogey. They miss the Sharks. Link wouldn't swap with anyone, I reckon.

I reckon the Rebels would be happy with their draw. The've got the Stormers, Sharks and Hurricanes at home and they don't play the Crusaders. That will help them to avoid big blow-outs in their scorelines that would inevitably lead to reduced morale.

Reckon I'd move the Chiefs up to mediocre and I agree the Cheetahs drew the shortest straw. They do at least get the Brumbies, Crusaders and Hurricanes at home but that's cold comfort.

This analysis is based on the assumption that there are three strong teams in each country. Bulls, Stormers and Sharks in SA, Reds, Tahs and Brumbies in Oz and Crusaders, Blues and Hurricanes in NZ. If say the Lions, Rebels, Force or Chiefs turn into hard nuts then the forecast goes south.

 

[Ruggo]

Until we see each side play, how do you know who has an easy draw?

 

[Hawko]

Until we see each side play, how do you know who has an easy draw?

If this is true then fantasy and tipping competitions are pure luck. And if I don't win both then I guess that becomes a truism.

 

[kiap]

This analysis leaves out some key factors.

I reckon the Crusaders would be very pleased with their draw because, although they play the Stormers and Reds away they get the Brumbies, Waratahs, Sharks and Bulls at home. That easily makes up for missing two of the easy-beats. Christchurch is a fortress - I think their win ratio there is over 90%. Canberra is next best but is nowhere near that percentage. Those four home games are likely to deliver at least three wins, probably two with bonus points. That's a very big dent in the other top teams.

The Tahs on the other hand should be in the tough category. They usually beat the Hurricanes, so missing them is no advantage. They've got the other two tough Kiwi teams away and although they miss the Stormers they have the other two top SA teams away. At home they've only got the easy-beats. That's maybe a few five pointers but if they lose against the top teams on the road then bonus points won't mean much.

Are you the Tahs media promoter? The Crusaders fans I know have been moaning about their draw... (good to see it, too). I'm still only partly with you, though, Hawko. It's not the worst draw for the Sadists, but the Blues and Brumbies definitely did a lot better.

The home ground factor is actually bigger in Canberra than it is in Christchurch. The Crusaders were a champion S14 side (winning twice and making the semis the other three years) whereas the Brumbies never even made the semis (it's a long way back to those S12 glories, these days...). The Brumbies still won 81% at home compared with 88% for the Saders. But looking at the away games you see the real difference in the quality of the sides - Crusaders 52%, Brumbies 37%.

As for the Waratahs, they do have the toughest away games. But I can't agree that avoiding the Hurricanes is missing out on a 'gimme', though. Even though the Canes had a poor season last year, they've got too many good players to say that (a side a bit like the Tahs, in fact, always 'nearly' men). Both teams may step up this year - the Canes have a good draw too.

Reds have got a great draw. They face the two favourites, Crusaders and Bulls, at home along with the Blues who are a bit of a bogey. They miss the Sharks. Link wouldn't swap with anyone, I reckon.

I reckon the Rebels would be happy with their draw. The've got the Stormers, Sharks and Hurricanes at home and they don't play the Crusaders. That will help them to avoid big blow-outs in their scorelines that would inevitably lead to reduced morale.

Reckon I'd move the Chiefs up to mediocre and I agree the Cheetahs drew the shortest straw. They do at least get the Brumbies, Crusaders and Hurricanes at home but that's cold comfort.

This analysis is based on the assumption that there are three strong teams in each country. Bulls, Stormers and Sharks in SA, Reds, Tahs and Brumbies in Oz and Crusaders, Blues and Hurricanes in NZ. If say the Lions, Rebels, Force or Chiefs turn into hard nuts then the forecast goes south.

Yeah, well spotted on the assumptions, you auld Hawkeye, you! Without sweeping assumptions there'd be no upsets, mind, and we couldn't have that, could we?

You are right that the Chiefs, Rebels and Force would be expected to tough out some good wins, for sure. These teams aren't bad sides. Dunno about the Lions, Landers and Cheetahs - but they are certainly due. In saying that, I don't expect any of these teams to make the six. It would be great to be proved wrong by the Rebels and Force, though. Some of that old Macqueen magic...

 

[qwerty51]

The Canes are a gimme for the Tahs, it was not a game you'd like to miss.

 

[kiap]

The Canes are a gimme for the Tahs, it was not a game you'd like to miss.

Well, it certainly was their best game last year.

Nothing to do with the Canes being easy, of course, but everything to do with the tablecloths the Tahs were wearing!

They should make a permanent jersey change.

 

[PaarlBok]

Pretty difficult to talk about this. Take the Brutes and Reds as an example, they were nowhere for seasons and came back with a bang. Myself expecting a tough SA conferense. If you look at the Tin Ears stats they are no easy beats in Osfontein specially for any SA team. They also have the habit against SA teams to win away matches against anyone. The SA derbies also briing out the best in our teams, The Stormers Sharks warmup match showed this again, its always brutal, tough games. The Lions is going to be something diffirent compare to history. They wont be easy for any SA team at home with JM as coach. Away wins in our conferense wont happen that easy and think the tours will decide the winner. Thats where I do rate the Stormers, they have beat the Chiefs and Blues last year and the have the unknown newbie Rebels. Brumbies will be their toughest one on tour. Brutes and Sharks have tougher tours.

 

[chriscullen]

Sorry to be a spoilsport but I still find it improper that everyone doesn't play everyone, but il learn to get over it, that said the hurricanes have a great draw but knowing them it will make no difference, I don't think the chiefs draw is too bad actually.

 

[qwerty51]

Sorry to be a spoilsport but I still find it improper that everyone doesn't play everyone, but il learn to get over it, that said the hurricanes have a great draw but knowing them it will make no difference, I don't think the chiefs draw is too bad actually.

It is ridiculous. I don't even like the idea of playing your own country twice, there's imbalance there if one country has a really shit team. ie. Lions (they will do alright this year)

 

[Utility Back]

It is ridiculous. I don't even like the idea of playing your own country twice, there's imbalance there if one country has a really shit team. ie. Lions (they will do alright this year)

I dunno for some reason it doesnt bother me TOO much. Mainly for the reason i feel the best teams will make it to the end no matter what.
The cream always rises to the top. Perhaps a bit naive but, anyway.

Actually i feel its the current bonus point system that will really screw with results in this new format i feel. I reckon they may need adjusting after this year.

 

[Slim 293]

I'm not really bothered that all the teams don't play each other...

I've always liked the way the Heineken Cup is mapped out...

I do think the bonus points system needs to be tweaked though... still get a BP for 4+ tries but only if you win... and BP for finishing with -7 points...