Log looking good for Aussie teams

[jcmp99]

I know the top4 consists of 2 NZ and 2 SA teams, but 5,6,7 are all Aussie teams. Two have completed their SA trip with limited succes I know and the NZ teams are still to come. I may be an .5 eyed optimist but if the effort and a little bit of luck go the way of OZ it could be quite an interesting couple of months.

1 Bulls
2 Stormers
3 Crusaders
4 Chiefs
5 Brumbies
6 Reds
7 Waratahs
8 Hurricanes
9 Cheetahs
10 Blues
11 Highlanders
12 Sharks
13 Lions
14 Western Force

What is also getting me excited is the number of leaders the Wallabies may have come Tri-nations. The reds have been a relevation and the Brumbies have leaders accross the park. The Waratahs have the usual suspect/s. The champion teams of Aussie rugby had an abundence of leaders accross the park, so lets hope we see a lift in the fortunes of 5,6,7 and tht it translates to Wallaby form

 

[Langthorne]

The first question is, which of the teams in positions 1-4 do we think can be dislodged? 1 or 2 at most?

I think the Bulls are going to be in the top 4 for sure, though maybe not top position. The same goes for the Crusaders. The Chiefs are definitely vulnerable, and the Stormers have a tough road trip (including a visit to Brisbane), followed by Crusaders and Bulls at home, and a trip to Natal.

Realistically we are looking at one spot for the Aussie teams in the top four, optimistically two spots (with the Chiefs and Stormers missing out - unlikely).

The next question is, which of the Aussie teams will be in a position to take advantage of Chiefs or Stormers dropping out?

Time will tell, but I suspect that the Reds-Brumbies and Waratahs-Brumbies matches may prove important, and my gut feeling is that the Reds will knock off a couple more high fliers before the end of the season but probably won't quite get to the semis (mainly due to inexperience and a lack of depth)

 

[Hawko]

The Stormers have a rough road trip? Both the Bulls and Stormers play their hard matches at home and their easier matches away. The Stormers have the Force first up after their long flight, so they can win even if they are not at their best. They then follow the Bulls - that is each week of their trip they play the team that got bashed up by the Bulls the week before. Then back in SA the roles are reversed.

Look at the last three matches on the Crusaders itinerary. Stormers away, Bulls away, three hop travel, jet lag, Brumbies fighting for a spot in the four. Crusaders could easily lose all three of those games and will probably lose two. Another loss to either the Tahs or the Hurricanes would leave them teetering.

This thread would have been better titled "Log looking bad for NZ teams". The Hurricanes and Chiefs can probably afford to drop two more games. If they drop three then they are teetering on the edge. But Hurricanes are likely to lose this week and still have to play the Tahs and the Crusaders and next week have the Sharks on their jet-lag week. I really think they're gone already. The Chiefs are better off but still have the Bulls, Stormers, Waratahs at home and the Brumbies and Hurricanes away. Lose three of those five and they are gone too, unless they get two bonus points every losing game.

Based on form to date and the draw as it is, I think the Stormers have the best draw - they play the Bulls at home in a game that should decide first on the log. The log after round 14 should have Bulls and Stormers at 1 & 2 with the derby to decide who is top. The Chiefs, Crusaders, Waratahs and Brumbies are fighting for two spots and Chiefs are looking very vulnerable, their lack of forward depth and power with no Lauaki will be tested by teams following the Red's gameplan. I like the chances of it being Brumbies and Tahs, but at the moment its a lottery.

I haven't mentioned the Blues or the Reds. I don't rate the Blues and they haven't travelled to SA yet. The Reds just need more depth, I think they will end up between 5th and 7th, which after last season is a tremendous effort.

 

[Langthorne]

It may be that the Crusaders have a tough run in but they have pretty good depth and experience.

Maybe I am underestimating the effects of the travel on the teams.

If we are looking at Bulls and Stormers as 1-2, then that is an even better situation for the chances of the Aussie teams to make the 4 (but maybe not win the comp).

The fact that there are still possibilities for quite a few teams is good news for the competition.

 

[Hawko]

Likely was the word I used. Bulls or Stormers would have to lose a few to miss the top two spots.

But its always who turns up on the day. The Cheetahs, Blues, Reds, Hurricanes and Chiefs could all hit a purple patch and come steaming through. Its just that looking at the draw and the ammo in the arsenal, I don't think they'll make it.

This year's rugby has been great compared to the last two and there are some mouth-watering clashes ahead.

 

[Scarfman]

Good topic jc, welcome to the forum.

I still think the 'Canes have the firepower to go all the way, and I'm less sure about the 'Saders.

It's a pretty interesting comp this year.

 

[Blue]

Good topic jc, welcome to the forum.

I still think the 'Canes have the firepower to go all the way, and I'm less sure about the 'Saders.

It's a pretty interesting comp this year.

Canes are done. They look rudderless. They will need a 100% turnaround once home and I donlt see it in them.

Crusaders are starting to look ominous like the team of a few years back who just know how to win.

The Canes lack depth. That was evident in Cape Town. Ripia is one dimensional at ten and Cruden is out of his depth at this level.

 

[MajorlyRagerly]

I know the top4 consists of 2 NZ and 2 SA teams, but 5,6,7 are all Aussie teams. Two have completed their SA trip with limited succes I know and the NZ teams are still to come. I may be an .5 eyed optimist but if the effort and a little bit of luck go the way of OZ it could be quite an interesting couple of months.

1 Bulls
2 Stormers
3 Crusaders
4 Chiefs
5 Brumbies
6 Reds
7 Waratahs
8 Hurricanes
9 Cheetahs
10 Blues
11 Highlanders
12 Sharks
13 Lions
14 Western Force

What is also getting me excited is the number of leaders the Wallabies may have come Tri-nations. The reds have been a relevation and the Brumbies have leaders accross the park. The Waratahs have the usual suspect/s. The champion teams of Aussie rugby had an abundence of leaders accross the park, so lets hope we see a lift in the fortunes of 5,6,7 and tht it translates to Wallaby form

Do you realise where the Western Force are from?

Ok seriously now, the Brumbies haven't impressed me in the slightest this year. I had them tipped as minor premiers I think, but they look anything but at the moment. No doubt the quality is there player wise, but they just don't look that good.

The hurricanes will be ok once they have this road trip out of the way. They look utter shit at the moment, but once back on Australasian soil they will be a threat to any team they play.

Bulls & stormers are looking very strong at the moment, but they haven't played a single away game yet, so it's too early to put a top 4 stamp on them.

Kind of pissed at the chiefs, but before this tourney started if I was given 3 wins 2 losses after 5 games, I would have taken it.

Reds have been the shit. Great to watch & playing bloody good footy.

 

[PaarlBok]

Bulls & stormers are looking very strong at the moment, but they haven't played a single away game yet, so it's too early to put a top 4 stamp on them.

Round 1 they played away.

Ja the Chiefs are disappointing at the moment. They are the perfect example about the secret Oom Paarl is telling about this competition. Its not about staying unbeaten, its about try to get back on the right side of the ledger after a loss. Sharks also have the same problem, dropping home games make life hard and if you want to qualify, you just have to win your home games.