Lions Watch

[Swat]

In response to the Wallabies Watch thread. Who should I be looking for come this lions series? (I barely catch any NH rugby). I still remember the last tour when Jason Robinson seemingly came from nowhere (English Rugby League) and put some hurt on us. Who has played themselves into contention?

 

[JSRF10]

Theres been a lot of chat about this on the Lions thread, I'd say at this stage the Lions are looking at their weakest touring squad in a long time. The quality in the 6 nations was awful Wales seemed to win by being the least worst team. However a few potential stars, from an Irish perspective, could be:

Cian Healy: I'm sure you remember this prop from the RWC, destructive ball carrier, solid scrummager and hits hard in defense. Probably the most complete loosehead available to Gatland, but copped a ban in the 6 nations so only saw action in 3 games.

Jonny Sexton: Been the dominant out half in NH Heineken Cup for a number of years was starting to come into his own at Intl level before a pulled hammy cut short his 6 nations. Has never been used properly by Ireland but Gatland could get the best out of him. If he is fit he'll be the test 10.

Simon Zebo: An Irish winger who looks like he has the X-Factor. Debuted in NZ last winter, and has made a big impression in his limited exposure to intl rugby. He is a skillful footballer and a superb finisher. Not guaranteed to make the tour but a big game in the Heineken Cup on Sunday could see him picked. The Lions are short on quality wingers and Zebo could be a bolter.

I'm sure the English, Welsh and Scots could fill you in on their potential stars of the series. As ever at Lions selection time everyone looks out for their own!

 

[Italophile]

Here's an independent POV.

Wingers. Zebo's an outstanding prospect and would suit the firmer Oz pitches to a tee. Fatland's bound to take either North or Cuthbert, possibly both. They won't scare the Wallaby defence, and Cuthbert is a defensive catastrophe waiting to happen. If he takes Chris Ashton it will be on trust because his form and confidence have fallen away dramatically and his always suspect defence has been well and truly exposed. Scotland's Visser is a good finisher, suspect in defence, and doesn't do enough to get the ball. I'd have McMaitland in front of him.

Centres. Probably Fatland's biggest problem. A black hole at 12, Manu at 13. If he doesn't play BOD at 12, it's probably a choice between Doc Roberts (duplicating Manu) or Barritt (responsible for the moribund nature of England's midfield). Irish Luke Marshall has bags of talent and potential. I might be wrong but I can't see Fatland risking him. Scotland's Matt Scott was a 6N quiet achiever.

More later.

 

[GunnerDownUnder]

I cant see many Scots making the trip sadly.
Possibles are Grant and Murray in front row, Gray and Hamilton in 2nd row, Brown and Beattie in back row, Laidlaw at SH, Scott in centre and back three of Visser, Maitland and Hogg.
I cant see many making it and unless a few injuries happen in final weeks only Gray (if fit) and Hogg likely to make it.
If Glasgow continue to do well and win the Pro12 then possibly Maitland and Grant are in with an outside chance.
Laidlaw might sneak in due to ability to kick and play 9/10.
Hamilton would actually be a worthwhile punt, big and aggressive and what the lions require in the non-test game rotation.
Scott had good 6N but I cant really see him being selected - especially if we keep playing him at 13...
Brown and Beattie - would only take a few injuries and Sarries/Montpelier continuing to do well in HC and they could be on plane.

Honestly, best I can hope is to see one or two Scots play in Newcastle or vs Tahs/Brumbies/Force.

 

[Italophile]

I reckon Hogg is a definite and will likely start at FB in front of Leigh 1/2d. 1/2d's goal kicking won't be needed with either Sexton or Farrell starting making him ideal bench cover for either FB or wing and kicking if need be.

Ross Rennie is only just back from his shoulder injury. Fit, he's a fine authentic 7, one of the few, and would have been a candidate.

 

[JSRF10]

I'd be suprised if Hogg even toured to be honest. If Kearney shows anything near form in the next few weeks Gatland will take him as he has previously stated that he'll put emphasis on previous Lions experience. Halfpenny, as it stands, will be the test full back, Kearney the dirt tracker and one of Zebo or Bowe will be the fall back.

 

[Italophile]

Kearney's got ground to make up. Coming back from injury he was pretty average in the 6N, I thought. We'll see. I still think Hogg will definitely tour.

 

[madflyhalf]

Kearny has been the best fb in Europe in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012; and in 2011 and 2012 probably the best in World rugby after Izzy Dagg.
He's been the most consistent Lion in 2009 tour alongside with Roberts.
I'd have him even if he'd play on one leg, because on this planet he's the one who most remembers me Spiderman.

If Bowe won't recover in time, and Kearney will have some form back, Halfpenny should play 14; Cuthberth and Ashton defence are shocking and unacceptable at this level.


Good news for them are among the backrows, even with injuries to 2 pure class blindside flanker as Ferris and Lydiate.

IMO Heaslip, Tipuric and Faletau are on the plane.
I like Johnnie Beattie game style and the heart Kelly Brown put on the field, both could travel in june; Tom Wood can be there too, he's been solid for England, and maybe SOB, even if he's not a great defender, he can make the cut for the midweek team.
I don't think Galtland would risk to call too many "prime donne", so should be Warburton or Robshaw, and I'm not sure if it will be the first one, due to his poor november & 6N.

They have some really big troubles among the centres, probably they'd need more Twelvetrees than Manusamoa or Barrit, but Lancaster didn't give him too many minutes on the 6N to guarantee a starting spot in the 3 tests, and probably neither a spot on the plane.

Anyway I thing the biggest concern for the B&I Lions is the captaincy role:

Warburton has failed as leader
Robshaw's brain probably doesn't get enough oxigen to take any decision bar the colour of his underwear
Drico looks he can't stay on the pitch for 80' as well as
POC, who did a good job in 2009, but barely has return to the game now

IMO Gatland's move to give Jenkins the captaincy for the last match of 6N is a signal, though don't know how much they can rely on his little experience.

 

[USARugger]

I reckon Hogg is a definite and will likely start at FB in front of Leigh 1/2d. 1/2d's goal kicking won't be needed with either Sexton or Farrell starting making him ideal bench cover for either FB or wing and kicking if need be.

Ross Rennie is only just back from his shoulder injury. Fit, he's a fine authentic 7, one of the few, and would have been a candidate.

Um, neither Sexton or Farrell has anywhere near the range of Halfpenny.

Actually Farrell is a really shitty kicker from distance, he just knocks over the closer ones for club and country.

A personal thank you to everyone who pointed out Cuthbert's inability to defend because I was starting to think I was losing my mind. I've been pretty vocal here and on other boards about how outstandingly bad his defensive positioning and decision making are and based on the responses I've gotten (primarily elsewhere) I was starting to think I may just be losing it. I honestly think a good U-18 back could turn him inside out, it's actually hard to watch sometimes.

 

[Italophile]

Halfpenny's range is greater, certainly, but range isn't the first priority. You can't have seen much of Farrell. He can knock them over from distance too.

 

[USARugger]

Halfpenny's range is greater, certainly, but range isn't the first priority. You can't have seen much of Farrell. He can knock them over from distance too.

Farrell's accuracy from distance is not good. He's useful for knocking over the close ones for club and country but he is not a distance kicker.

Sexton is the better #10 regardless, both in general and within the systems Gatland runs with teams he coaches. Farrell will be a bench warmer and will be lucky to start one of the tests.

The only thing Hogg has over 1/2P is some pace. 1/2P is the best fullback in Europe and has been since Kearney was injured, his defensive positioning and custodial work are streets ahead of anyone else available at the moment (besides Kearney). His distribution and reads in counter-attack don't leave much to be asked for either. The fact that he can actually land penalties from 45+ meters out is just a huge bonus.

 

[JSRF10]

Jonny Sexton has a greater range than Halfpenny, he has no problem stroking over penalties from 50 metres. Halfpenny will play on merit because he is the best full back but Sexton is a far better place kicker and will rightly be the no 1 place kicker on tour.

 

[USARugger]

Jonny Sexton has a greater range than Halfpenny, he has no problem stroking over penalties from 50 metres. Halfpenny will play on merit because he is the best full back but Sexton is a far better place kicker and will rightly be the no 1 place kicker on tour.

Are you sure he out ranges Halfpenny? I can't remember the last time the Irish setup let Sexton take a really long shot at the sticks. I remember his big drop for Leinster the other year but 1/2P has a cannon from the tee.

 

[JSRF10]

I've seen him hit some huge penalties for Leinster, although in fairness I was probably getting a bit parochial there. On reflection I'd say their ranges are similar but I'd rather have Sexton taking a 50m kick to win a test match than Halfpenny, in saying that you aren't losing much either way.

 

[JSRF10]

Big winner from this weekend could be Munster and Ireland half back Conor Murray. Out played Danny Care yesterday in the Heineken Cup and looked very composed and nearly always made the right decision. Slows the game down a tad too much for my liking but Gatland likes big, physical 9's so Murray could sneak onto the plane.

One bolter could be Ian Madigan, he is an exciting 10 very much in the Quade Cooper mould. A quick google search should show you some of the skills he has, most recently he chipped kicked from behind his own try line before regathering and going on a 50m run. Produced a tour de force against Wasps on Friday night and could be in the running for the 3rd outhalf spot given the lack of options available to Gatland in that position.

 

[USARugger]

Murray stepped up hugely in that QF match. I reckon it will still be close between him and Mike Phillips though. I don't think Gatland will take two forwards of that mold though. Both like to slow the game a bit and really command the forwards around the park. Unless Gatland is of the mind that he will be able to bully the Wallabies up front I can't see him taking two 9s of that type. If he is and MMM returns to fitness alongside Horwill and hopefully Palu he will find himself mistaken.

 

[JSRF10]

Unless Gatland is of the mind that he will be able to bully the Wallabies up front I can't see him taking two 9s of that type.

Even though it hasn't worked for Wales against the Wallabies this is exactly what I see Gatland doing, at this stage I'd wager the 3 9's will be Phillips, Youngs and Murray.

One player who'll be struggling to make the plane has to be Robshaw. Once again when the going got tough he was no where to be seen, and his captaincy left a lot to be desired. He, along with St Sam, must be 2 of the most over rated players in NH rugby at the moment.

 

[Bairdy]

With the lack of quality options at 7, I find it strange Gatland would confine himself to picking players from every competition but the Top14, seeing as Armitage is clearly the standout in the Northern Hemisphere, along with Tipuric. He was very good in hte Toulon quarter final, and actually pilfered the ball a few times.

 

[the plastic paddy]

Not pleased about it but Paul O'Connell is now favourite to lead the Lions. He was immense yesterday, I watch the game back late last night and his performance was out of this world. He is an automatic selection, no ifs, buts or maybes as there are with BOD, Warburton and Robshaw. I still hope he tells Gatland that he wants to spend the summer consolidating his fitness in Ireland but if he is fit he is on the plane and if he is on the plane I suspect he has to be captain.

 

[JSRF10]

With the lack of quality options at 7, I find it strange Gatland would confine himself to picking players from every competition but the Top14, seeing as Armitage is clearly the standout in the Northern Hemisphere, along with Tipuric. He was very good in hte Toulon quarter final, and actually pilfered the ball a few times.

He has said he wants everyone available for the first tour game, which I believe clashes with the Top 14 semi finals. This would rule out Armitage, Wilko and Jenkins I'd assume. Not sure the first two would have toured anyway but I'd imagine Jenkins will be the first call up in the event of an injury. Tipuric is the most natural out and out 7, but SOB, St Sam and Heaslip (if they all tour) are all more than capable at the breakdown. In fact SOB has out played Sir Ruchie of the Darkness a couple of times so he should be able to compete with Smith, Hooper et al.