I think the pool of experienced international coaches who couldn't make an improvement on the current Eagles is a very small one. Things have changed a lot over here since the days of Scott Johnson refusing to adapt to the American system.
Recruiting pathways a much clearer and more accessible, the pool of athletes has grown in breadth and depth, funding has improved at all levels, the various territorial unions are far more organized than they were even 5 years ago, etc. The national team are also spending more time together than at any point prior to this moment, we have more full-time professionals than ever. The USA Eagles are a team that's been on the up in every way other than coaching for the last few years.
It's a fantastic opportunity for any coach - administration and fans will be far more understanding with results (for the initial period, at least) and the coach will likely have even more control over the national rugby program as a whole than they ever would at any Tier 1 nation. This isn't to mention the budding professional league, or the fact that the coach isn't exactly going to be working for pennies here. The CEO of USAR makes a very comfortable 6-figure salary (and in US dollars
).
It's also a team with a fairly defunct locker room that was lost by the former coach a while ago, one that will be looking for leadership and direction.
The only real "catch" with the USA job is that is that it needs to be handled in such a way as to encourage the development of the United States as a rugby playing
nation (and not just bolstering the win rate of the national team for a limited period of time) - this coach will need to stick around for a few years if this final "push" to legitimize the United States as a competitive rugby nation is going to bear fruit.
All of the above are reasons why I'm nervous about the appointment of John Mitchell.
Let's take a look at the coaching history of Mitchell:
1994–1995: Fraser Tech (club side in Hamilton, New Zealand)
1996: Ireland (forwards coach)
1996–1999: Sale Sharks
1997–2000: England (forwards coach)
1999–2000: London Wasps (Asst. coach)
2000: Waikato B (2nd tier team to NZ NPC team Waikato)
2000–2001: Waikato Chiefs (Super rugby team)
2001–2003: All Blacks
2004–2005: Waikato (NPC team)
2006–2010: Western Force
2010–2012: Golden Lions (Curry Cup team)
2011–2012: Lions (Super rugby team)
2012: Sale Sharks (director of rugby)
2013–2014: University of KwaZulu-Natal
2016– : USA
That's somewhere around 11-13 clubs in 20 years depending on how you're counting. Not exactly an encouraging sign for a post that's going to require some longevity if USAR wants their vision fully realized (the professional league and associated recruiting/development pathways won't be fully realized overnight, there's also going to be a fairly critical window of interest in the 18 months or so following the Olympics - some continuity in coaching and management through both of these periods would seem to be fairly important).
Mitchell has a lengthy history of alienating his teams from the media and public in general. All Blacks fans should be able to attest to this. Pulling a stunt like that over the next 2 years would be a disastrous loss of opportunity with the Olympics right over the horizon.
There's the smoldering wrecks he's left behind him at the board level and with key associates/sponsors of the clubs where he's coached. Then there's the whole drinking culture bit which seems to mysteriously rear it's head at clubs he's been involved with. I'm praying that he's learned from his past and that these are both things that won't happen with the Eagles, but history tends to repeat itself. The last thing the USAR/The Eagles need is instability within the board (even if half of them are shit), potential and current sponsors being chased off, or the development of a macho drinking culture in the locker room when so much has been done to curb habits like those in the Eagles 7s/XVs training environment.
It's also been over a decade since Mitchell has been involved in a national setup.
Honestly, I'm not really worried about on-field results in the short term under Mitchell. I really do think a donkey could improve this team to a respectable win rate, especially against other Tier 2 nations. Tolkin was objectively fucking awful in a lot of ways when it came to scheme and game tactics over the last few years. A few small tweaks would have a very different Eagles team showing up on the pitch - there were stretches in the RWC where they showed how much more effective they look when they're simply running onto the fucking ball instead of playing deep and flat-footed.
I'm worried about everything else that may transpire under Mitchell given his pattern of behavior throughout his coaching career.
I wouldn't trade a year or two of consistent wins over T2 nations and legitimate challenges against T1 nations (a pretty fair bar for success given the Eagles' recent history) for the long-term health of the sport in the United States, not at such a critical junction as the one USAR is currently approaching.
I'm encouraged by Mitchell's recent words in the media (
http://www.vodacomrugby.co.za/mitchell-reveals-plans-for-eagles/) but I'll still be hoping and wishing he's truly broken stride on some of his old bad habits.
