Ireland v Australia, Saturday 26 November

[USARugger]

I don't know how anyone can look at that pack and say that we're going to have a dynamism advantage over Ireland after the performances their forwards just put on against the ABs. Even more so with Henderson starting again.

Don't feel good about this team sheet and I fear we are going to see more exploitation of our right flank and will probably be reminded harshly about that whole choke tackle thing Ireland like to do in midfield.

 

[KOB1987]

I didn't see the markets earlier in the week but the bookies now have Ireland $1.76 : $2.07 Australia. The line is 1.5pts.

 

[Dave Beat]

The times I've seen McMahon come on with 20 to go he has had an impact. If we are up he has taken the game away from them and closed it out.
Understand Timani isn't a jumper but with Mumm on the side of the scrum, Mumm can switch to lock to close with Timani on the bench.

 

[fatprop]

I want to joke about the Mumm selection but I just can't. And when we finally are getting some go-forward ball with Timani. Geez.

I guess there's always Mumm's legendary ability to disrupt mauls.

From the ARU article

Lopeti Timani has been a casualty of a greater lineout focus against Ireland, Michael Cheika said, opting to bring Dean Mumm into the blindside flanker role, with Hooper resuming his spot at openside and David Pocock at eight.

Mumm was suspended for Australia’s clash with Wales and came off the bench in the second match against Scotland, with Cheika happy to lean towards Timani’s ball-carrying, but the balance has shifted for Ireland.

“Timani has done absolutely nothing wrong,” he said.
“We want to focus a little bit more on our lineout this week and the threat that Ireland might pose there - they're very good in that area.

“Dean brings a lot of experience and quality in that area. But then we'll probably lose a bit of Lopeti's ball carrying too.

“It's six of one, half a dozen of the other but we decided that was probably an important thing for this game and that's how we'll run.”

Timani has been named on an extended bench, with one player to be omitted ahead of Saturday’s clash, a move that will be dependent on whether the Wallabies want a forward-heavy six-two split or a five-three makeup.

Cheika said he felt the Irish would target their tall timber in the match, though the breakdown is sure to be where most eyes are, given the recent run of form of Ireland flanker Sean O’Brien and the destruction David Pocock inflicted on the French last weekend.

 

[Strewthcobber]

Timani paying the price for Arnold's recent sloppy work at 2?

 

[PeterK]

I understand the lineout however the Irish one is not that strong with Donacha Ryan rested.

Pocock matches S Obrien and you need Timani to match up to Heaslip.
Then Mumm can matchup to Stander and Hooper on the bench.

Heaslip is going to have a field day.

IMO Ireland are now favourites to win.

 

[dru]

PK you keep saying this about the Irish line out, and I guess no, its not as strong as when they are at full strength. Much like we are not without Coleman.

Henderson is a jumper and sits in for Ryan. Drop in quality perhaps, but not an absent jumper. Toner is top class. Heaslip is one of the better back row jumpers. On the bench I see Dillane as a bit of an unknown.

But you still have 3 Irish jumpers and Ireland is likely to be thinking that they do not need 4 against Australia.

If you had dropped Mumm for Timani the Aus Line Out would have been at sixes and sevens.

I understand the view that Irish tactics will likely focus on forward suffocation but I think its a mistake to think there will be an absence of decent kicking (therefore little need in the Line Out).

Jackson is the better kicker they are able to field with Sexton out. While goal kicking is not the same as tactical kicking, he put two over last week with Sexton off. No doubt Richie Murphy (Ireland kicking coach; Leinster Kicking and Skills Coach) has been working on this.

Timani in my mind is a casualty to the Pooper, which is an understandable choice when matching back rows to the Irish. For me, either Mumm or Fardy was always going to get a gig.

We underestimate the Irish tactical kicking and their Line Out at our own peril. And Cheika has not made that mistake.

 

[KevinO]

Edit: just saw the Irish side; they selected Earls who seems like a bit of a fiery red nut; also garces sent him off last month

Earls was suspended and missed the Chicago game, played a blinder against Canada and was unlucky not to be selected last weekend. Fiery? A bit, that game was highly emotional against Glasgow and his a pretty good record otherwise. He also has a outstanding try scoring record for Ireland, I would have started him and Zebo and moved Trimble to the bench.

 

[USARugger]

I understand the lineout however the Irish one is not that strong with Donacha Ryan rested.

Pocock matches S Obrien and you need Timani to match up to Heaslip.
Then Mumm can matchup to Stander and Hooper on the bench.

Heaslip is going to have a field day.

IMO Ireland are now favourites to win.

Echoing my thoughts entirely.

The 2nd test against the All Blacks was the firm evidence for me that the Irish line out, while good, is not "that" good. The ABs line out in Chicago was just "that" bad.

 

[dru]

Centres:

Irland have actually the larger centres available to them but a differance remains.

12 Hodge 94kg; 13 Kuridrani 102 kg; Folau attacking at 12 103 kg
12 Ringrose 92kg; 13 Payne 95kg

Should test the current Aussie thinking of size before mobility. Suspect we are seeing something similar in the locks.

 

[PeterK]

PK you keep saying this about the Irish line out, and I guess no, its not as strong as when they are at full strength. Much like we are not without Coleman.

Henderson is a jumper and sits in for Ryan. Drop in quality perhaps, but not an absent jumper. Toner is top class. Heaslip is one of the better back row jumpers. On the bench I see Dillane as a bit of an unknown.

But you still have 3 Irish jumpers and Ireland is likely to be thinking that they do not need 4 against Australia.

If you had dropped Mumm for Timani the Aus Line Out would have been at sixes and sevens.

I said that Hooper should be on the bench.

Mumm, Pocock, Timani is more balanced and a better matchup for both the lineout and the breakdown.
Mumm - Stander
Pocock - S Obrien
Timani - Heaslip

looks a lot better than Hooper there.

I agree with Sexton out they will kick more. Timani adds strength to the lineout over Hooper. Also matches Heaslip in tight and will drive him back and clear bodies off the ruck.

Hooper does not clear bodies off the ruck nor do well in the lineout.

 

[dru]

I said that Hooper should be on the bench.

Mumm, Pocock, Timani is more balanced and a better matchup for both the lineout and the breakdown.
Mumm - Stander
Pocock - S Obrien
Timani - Heaslip

looks a lot better than Hooper there.

I agree with Sexton out they will kick more. Timani adds strength to the lineout over Hooper. Also matches Heaslip in tight and will drive him back and clear bodies off the ruck.

Hooper does not clear bodies off the ruck nor do well in the lineout.

Apologies I misunderstood the drive of your comments.

And that just comes back to the should we shouldnt we Pooper? My view here, and I thought you had made similar comment, is that the Irish back row is particularly ruck effective. For me, this justifies Hooper and Pocock.

 

[dru]

I'd add that I dont think either Timani or Hooper add any material weight to the qualty of the Line Out. Both can take the long throws if needed.

In a 1-3-3-1 attack system the powerhouse to the ruck clear out is surely the inner pod, which doesnt involve either Pocock or Hooper. In defense the 7 role is getting wide quick, but generally the clear out will be the second in.

Mumm playing in the tram tracks for Hooper doesnt work for me. Putting him in the tight pod does, though not as good as Timani (but we pick up the jumper).

 

[Scoey]

Simmons will be expected to play 80 as he does. Any chance Chieka will be looking to try and get 80 out of Arnold and just have Mumm and Timani as hybrid lock cover meaning Douglas drops out of the 23?

It does seem most likely that Naivalu will miss out and we will run a 6/2 bench but I'm just trying to think out of the box.

 

[Pfitzy]

Personally, I doubt it Scoey - Douglas will be expected to come on and shift bodies like Arnold. He's had game time now so is out of excuses.

Arnold has had a few knocks the last few games and McMahon is clearly injured. Expect the latter will drop out of the 23 if we're concerned about player welfare.

 

[Pfitzy]

 

[Scoey]

Yeah McMahon in the 23 worries me. His ankle (was it the same one he originally injured?) was buggered in the first few minutes of the France match which tells me he wasn't ready to play yet. Could've been a mild sprain on his good ankle of course but in any case, we can't afford any of the bench to come on and not be at 100%

 

[Pfitzy]

Yeah McMahon in the 23 worries me. His ankle (was it the same one he originally injured?) was buggered in the first few minutes of the France match which tells me he wasn't ready to play yet. Could've been a mild sprain on his good ankle of course but in any case, we can't afford any of the bench to come on and not be at 100%

Additionally, you could do worse than put Dempsey in to that slot if you wanted like-for-like. Kid is amazing in contact, carrying the ball or tackling. A little bit bigger than McMahon, but very similar skillset.

 

[Twoilms]

The real loss to the side has always been Coleman who has been the standout forward all season. Timani has showed some positive signs and has performed better than expected but it's certainly not a travesty that he's been dropped for a more technically proficient player. I expect Sefa will be dropped from the bench.

McMahon and Timani coming of the bench with 20 to go is a huge advantage in terms of impact, if the starters can lay a good enough platform in the first 60.

 

[Scoey]

Coleman is the bad news story of this tour. We finally find the angry giraffe we've been searching for and he goes and does a fetlock.