IRB Rankings for 2011 RWC

[mark_s]

I read today that the poms loss to us on the weekend puts them at risk of dropping out of the top 4 ranked nations, in which case they would not be in the top 4 seeds for the next RWC. Clearly this isn?t necessarily a terminal blow to their RWC 2011 ambitions (given they won the 03 RWC after being in the same pool as the boks and made the 07 final, again after being pooled with the boks). Nevertheless, it does lead to the risk of a qtr final showdown with (say) the All Blacks.

Apparently the poms will need to beat either the boks or the blacks in order to stay in 4th (and keep the argies in 5th). If the argies do sneak into 4th spot, that would mean the SH made up the top 4, I would like to think this is appropriate payback for the weak NH touring teams that get sent to the SH every year.

Does anyone know exactly how this works (e.g. is #1 poled with #8, #2 with #7 and so on)? Should the poms (and the French, who are currently 6th) really care about this?

Also, how do Fiji, Tonga and Samoa get treated given the rarely play other nations these days. None of these are in the top 10, yet I suspect samoa would be very capable of giving say Scotland and Italy a run for their money.

 

[Scarfman]

mark_s, where've ya been?

As of 10 November:

1 NEW ZEALAND 92.41
2 SOUTH AFRICA 88.28
3 AUSTRALIA 85.65
4 ENGLAND 83.16
5 ARGENTINA 82.22
6 FRANCE 80.13
7 WALES 79.58
8 IRELAND 77.18
9 SCOTLAND 76.92
10 ITALY 75.24
11 FIJI 75.24
12 SAMOA 72.57

But then AUS beat ENG and ARG beat ITA.

Which puts ARG up to 4th, ahead of ENG, even though the new rankings aren't published yet. Apparently, the top 12 at the end of November will lead the seedings for the RWC.

The Pool Allocation Draw for RWC 2011 will be made in London at the giant New Zealand Rugby Ball venue on December 1, 2008.

I think the pools are seeding like this:

A B C D
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8

So that the QTR-FNL is 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5.

At the moment, that makes:

A B C D
NZL RSA AUS ARG
ENG FRA WAL IRE

But I could be wrong about this. :nta:

 

[mark_s]

Thanks for this, maybe a 5th place finish would be a better result for Eng as it ensures that they wouldn't meet the all blacks again until the final.

I have been hanging around, just been real busy with work (including OS travel) so haven't been posting much.

 

[Pfitzy]

Tradiationally the pools should be set up as:

Pool A: 1, 8
Pool B: 2, 7
Pool C: 3, 6
Pool D: 4, 5

This is done to reward the top seeds, giving them (in theory) the best chance of making it out of their pool and increasing the likelihood that one of the pool leader. If teams seeded 1 and 2 make it out of their pools they go into opposite sides of the draw (A v C, B v D)

However, if you look at the order of finishing in 2003 according to top 4 decided by playoffs and their quarterfinal opponents, you get:

1 ENG, 2 AUS, 3 NZL, 4 FRA, 5 WAL (lost QF to ENG), 6 SCO (lost QF to AUS), 7 RSA (lost QF to NZL), 8 IRE (lost QF to FRA)

So the 2007 pools by my method should have been:

Pool A: ENG (1), IRE (8 ) - instead it was ENG (1), RSA (7)
Pool B: AUS (2), RSA (7) - instead it was AUS (2), WAL (5)
Pool C: NZL (3), SCO (6) - instead it was NZL (3), SCO (6)
Pool D: FRA (4), WAL (5) - instead it was FRA (4), IRE (8 )

Which to me makes no sense, but that's the IRB!

 

[Scarfman]

Nick, I thought whatyou thought, until it was pointed out to me that 1 must play 8 in the quarter finals.

I think your observations from 2007 indicate that only the top 4 are placed into pools properly, then the draw comes into play.

So - wait for December 1.

 

[Scarfman]

Here's the updated rankings, for what it's worth.

01. New Zealand 92.41
02. South Africa 88.45
03. Australia 86.70
04. Argentina 82.82
05. England 82.11
06. France 80.13
07. Wales 79.58
08. Ireland 77.18
09. Scotland 76.76
10. Fiji 75.24

I'm really happy for the top 4 to be SH nations, just to shove it up NH arses. But it does mean that there's a 1 in 4 chance that we'll be lumped in Engand in the pools. Mind you, our chances of beating England in New Zealand would be about the same as beating Argentina.

 

[Aussie D]

Who do Scotland play in the next couple of weeks as I would love to see them in a tough pool for once so that they don't have to beat Italy to qualify for the quarter finals. Would love to see Argentina, Ireland and Scotland grouped together as that would be an interesting pool as all 3 could go through.

 

[Pfitzy]

Well D they usually draw the ABs in their pool so that is tough enough. They'll be in the third tier this time, so they'll be in a pool with one of the top four (NZL / RSA / AUS / ARG) and one of the second four (ENG / FRA / WAL / IRE).

 

[Scarfman]

Having beaten ENG, it looks like AUS will rank ahead of 4, that is, avoid NZL until the final.

So, the final issue of any importance is who we get drawn with as our 2nd tier side in the pool (realistically, the only side that could beat us in the pool stage).

So, do we care who we get?

05. England 82.11
06. France 80.13
07. Wales 79.58
08. Ireland 77.18

They're all worthy opponents, actually. We're very capable of losing to all of them. France the least predictable quality.

 

[rugbywhisperer]

From memory, England is the only one of the four though to have given us any real greif in recent history - I might be wrong but I can't remeber the other three offering too much obstruction - save for the 1991 RWC qtr final against Ireland but we were on top all game except for that 2 minutes.

 

[Mainlander]

mark_s, where've ya been?

As of 10 November:

1 NEW ZEALAND 92.41
2 SOUTH AFRICA 88.28
3 AUSTRALIA 85.65
4 ENGLAND 83.16
5 ARGENTINA 82.22
6 FRANCE 80.13
7 WALES 79.58
8 IRELAND 77.18
9 SCOTLAND 76.92
10 ITALY 75.24
11 FIJI 75.24
12 SAMOA 72.57

But then AUS beat ENG and ARG beat ITA.

Which puts ARG up to 4th, ahead of ENG, even though the new rankings aren't published yet. Apparently, the top 12 at the end of November will lead the seedings for the RWC.

The Pool Allocation Draw for RWC 2011 will be made in London at the giant New Zealand Rugby Ball venue on December 1, 2008.

I think the pools are seeding like this:

A B C D
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8

So that the QTR-FNL is 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5.

At the moment, that makes:

A B C D
NZL RSA AUS ARG
ENG FRA WAL IRE

But I could be wrong about this. :nta:

So provided things go to schedule.....

AB's play Ire
Boks play Wales
Oz play France
Argies play England

With the winners of AB/Irish playing Oz/France for one of the finals berths

and the winners of Boks/Wales playing Argies/England for the other.


Don't know about you blokes but the second route looks a bloody sight easier to me.

Only good thing I can see is unpredictable (and seems to regularly scuttle a top seed) France have to get past you' re lot before we get them and hopefully like previous years won't have 2 descent games in them.

But if you do sink them I still see the best 2 teams still facing off in a Simi again and a strong possibility that England could very easily make the final despite losing to the ABs in pool play and be crowned at least the 2nd best team as has happened previously.

 

[Pfitzy]

From memory, England is the only one of the four though to have given us any real greif in recent history

Recent World Cup grief includes:

1995 - England 25-22
1999 - dnp
2003 - England 20-17
2007 - England 12-10

 

[cyclopath]

From memory, England is the only one of the four though to have given us any real greif in recent history

Recent World Cup grief includes:

1995 - England 25-22
1999 - dnp
2003 - England 20-17
2007 - England 12-10

They're our French, to use a Kiwi analogy.

 

[Cutter]

So, apart from the French in '87, the English are the only team to knock us out of the RWC!

 

[Scarfman]

Mainlander, I think your semis are off.

01. New Zealand 92.41
02. South Africa 88.45
03. Australia 86.70
04. Argentina 82.82
05. England 82.11
06. France 80.13
07. Wales 79.58
08. Ireland 77.18

QTRS designed to be 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, 4v5.

So that would be: New Zealand v Ireland, South Africa v Wales, Australia v France, Argentina v England.

The SEMIS are 1v4, 2v3.

So that would be Winner (New Zealand v Ireland) v Winner (Argentina v England), and Winner (South Africa v Wales) v Winner (Australia v France).

So, we would expect New Zealand to play Argentina or England and Australia play South Africa.

But I think the December 1 draw will produce a few interesting match-ups in the pool stages.

 

[rugbywhisperer]

From memory, England is the only one of the four though to have given us any real greif in recent history

Recent World Cup grief includes:
1995 - England 25-22
1999 - dnp
2003 - England 20-17
2007 - England 12-10

They're our French, to use a Kiwi analogy.

And to make it all the more galling, they play typical tiurnament rugby, tight, tight and boring.
I vannot remember England EVER beating us playiing a wide game. yes they score the odd try by Robinson etc but the their game play RWC is soooooo booring yet safe.

 

[RugbyReg]

And to make it all the more galling, they play typical tiurnament rugby, tight, tight and boring.
I vannot remember England EVER beating us playiing a wide game. yes they score the odd try by Robinson etc but the their game play RWC is soooooo booring yet safe.

when they beat us earlier in 2003? 25-14? Not a thrashing but I seem to remember them playing fairly decent rugby then. 3 tries to one and only 2 penalties (to our 3).

 

[Cutter]

Yep, they played well that day (in Melbourne I think). Cohen ran past a very flat Latham which cost Latham his RWC starting spot. After a bit of an earlier dust up, Lewsey also crunched Rogers and broke ribs. I never liked Rogers and was glad to see him smashed.

 

[Pfitzy]

It was the hospital pass to end all. Up in the air, one man outside, Lewsey performing an emergency lung transpart on Mungoboy with his shoulder. I seem to remember the only good thing about it being Rogers didn't knock on, but I could be mistaken...

 

[Pfitzy]

And to make it all the more galling, they play typical tiurnament rugby, tight, tight and boring.
I vannot remember England EVER beating us playiing a wide game. yes they score the odd try by Robinson etc but the their game play RWC is soooooo booring yet safe.

when they beat us earlier in 2003? 25-14? Not a thrashing but I seem to remember them playing fairly decent rugby then. 3 tries to one and only 2 penalties (to our 3).

Grey played flyhalf for us in Melbourne when Flats missed curfew or a breathalyser :nta:. The Poms played territory and then struck when they got near our 22. Was a good performance by them using their top forward pack to mark their territory before returning later in the year.